Kerry Takes Lead Over Bush Among Likely Voters in Florida (Kerry 50% W 43% Nader 2%)

americanresearchgroup ^ | 08/06/04 | americanresearchgroup

[KQQL]

John Kerry has taken the lead over George W. Bush among likely voters in Florida according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 50% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 43% say they would vote for Bush. A total of 2% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 5% of likely voters are undecided.

In a ballot question without Nader, 52% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry and 44% say they would vote for Bush, with 4% of likely voters undecided.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in Florida.

Of the 600 likely voters, 39% are Republicans, 45% are Democrats, and 16% are not affiliated with any party or affiliated with a minor party.

The interviews were conducted August 3 through 5, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

[FITZ]

the honest polls came out last week....

Maybe more honest --- but how can anyone set up a reliable poll today? You can't go on a street corner and ask --- you only get the people who are walking down the street, you can't call up people --- then you only get the people who answer their phones. I cannot figure out how you could really get a reliable cross section of people anymore.

[KQQL]

Updated Numbers :

My 2 cents: Don't get mad @ me, get Glade.
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Right now W's average approval ratings is 47.5% from last 8 polls (Dem/GOP don't count). The max W will get over his average approval rating is 0.5%.

So: If the election were held today, the approx election results would be.

W/O Nader
Bush 48.0%
Kerry 51.0%
Others 1.0%

Bush 48.0%
Kerry 50.0%
Nader 1.3%
Others 0.7%

MOE+/-1%

[KQQL]

UpDATE 2(W/Zogby numbers)


My 2 cents: Don't get mad @ me, get Glade.
------
Right now W's average approval ratings is 47.1% from last 9 polls (Dem/GOP don't count). The max W will get over his average approval rating is 0.5%.

So: If the election were held today, the approx election results would be.

W/O Nader
Bush 47.6%
Kerry 51.4%
Others 1.0%

Bush 47.6%
Kerry 50.4%
Nader 1.3%
Others 0.7%

MOE+/-1%

[RightthinkinAmerican]

When it comes to likely voters, it's pretty even NATIONALLY, yet almost ALL polls are sampled heavily toward the Dims. Dims do NOT turn out to vote in higher numbers than Repubs.