Posted on 08/06/2004 8:10:50 AM PDT by JohnHuang2
Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)
Total employment rose by 629,000 to 139.7 million in July, and the employ- ment population ratio--the proportion of the population age 16 and over with jobs--increased to 62.5 percent. The civilian labor force also increased over the month, rising by 577,000 to 147.9 million, and the labor force participa- tion rate rose to 66.2 percent. (See table A-1.)
Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data)
Total nonfarm employment was little changed (+32,000) in July at 131.3 million. Since its recent trough in August 2003, payroll employment has risen by 1.5 million. Over the month, employment gains in health care and social assistance and in professional and business services were partly offset by job losses in financial activities.
Yep, we're in a deep depression, all right. ;-)
Why does everyone refuse to acknowledge the household numbers? I'd rather work for myself than a coporation. Isn't that the American Dream?
Yep... Bread lines any day now.....
good headline
Everyone should note, however, that the unemployment dropped to a 5.5% rate (its 4.4% in the battleground state of Iowa), that manufacturing jobs increased, and that wages increased (giving the lie to the low-paying crummy jobs theory).
Still, I don't get it. Your numbers sound great. Other than a biased media (which I do understand), what's the deal? Please put them in context for me.
32,000 is the number of people added to payrolls. 625,000 is the number of people that have gained jobs. The two do not have to match.
Many of my neighbors were downsized out of their corporate jobs. They are still, however, gainfully employed as work-at-home contractors. The internet revolution has made this possible.
These people are still employed according to the household survey, but their jons have vanished from the establishment survey.
This phenomenon could explain the increase in employment, as measured by the household survey of nearly 2 million jobs since President busg took office.
625,000 new jobs in India and China (out sourcing).
Didn't you read the title in the FR post above? Huang called for a REALITY CHECK. Drudge is a SENSATIONALIST. Big difference.
India and China's population and workforce figures are now incorporated into the USA's? When did this start?
It seems the job market is changing, but the MSM doesn't quite understand how to report it correctly. Of course, being an election year, with a Republican President, it may be more than ignorance...
I think he's kidding...
So am I.
"I'd rather work for myself than a coporation."
And from a tax standpoint so would everyone. Think about it. Work for corporate America and all your income is exposed and little is deductible. Work for yourself and your transportation, food, communications and housing are deductible from your gross income.
Guess which one provides you the highest after tax income? The survey of household jobs ....
According to the Household Survey, employment increased by 629,000 to 139.7 million in July. However, in the Establishment Survey, employment increased by only 32,000 to 131.3 million in the same month.
Why such a big difference?
The main difference between these two series is that the universe is inferred from the Establishment Survey by expanding the results obtained from each sector by assumptions of the relative sizes of these sectors. Over time, as we get an increasingly better idea of the relative sizes of these sectors, we will make adjustments to the findings of the Establishment Survey, and the two surveys will align pretty well with each other. But, when the relative sizes of the sectors of the economy are fast-changing, as they currently are, expanding sectors will be under-represented, and contracting sectors will be over-represented, and the Establishment Survey will under-estimate total employment.
Notice that, according to the Establishment Survey, there are 131.3 million people employed, but according to the Household Survey, there are 139.7 million people employed; i.e., the under-estimation is 8.4 million (this is not a small number).
If the Establishment Survey is biased, why is it used? I am tempted to say it is used by certain politicians because it is biased. But, the actual answer is that it has tremendouse detail relative to the Household Survey and, over time, when it is adjusted, its bias is removed.
Other tidbits from the household survey ... Labor force participation surged by 577,000 to 147.9 million, usually indicating that people have renewed confidence of finding a job; and, the unemplyment rate dropped from 5.6 to 5.5 percent, indicative of people actually being able to find jobs. These two results, along with the job creation number from this survey, indicate that the recovery is proceeding with vigor, and further contradict the findings of the Establishment Survey.
Now I am totally confuesd???LOL
The number 32K came out this am and the Market took a dump...and now this???
I hope someone calls the NYSE & CBOT before the close of the Market today! LOL
Could you cut that down to ten words or less? LOL(in layman's terms pls)
Average hourly earnings Average weekly earnings
Industry July May June July July May June July
2003 2004 2004p 2004p 2003 2004 2004p 2004p
Total private........................... $15.29 $15.63 $15.57 $15.59 $515.27 $531.42 $524.71 $526.94
Seasonally adjusted.................... 15.40 15.63 15.65 15.70 517.44 528.29 525.84 529.09
Goods-producing............................. 16.85 17.10 17.14 17.19 665.58 690.84 690.74 687.60
Natural resources and mining.................... 17.53 18.06 18.18 18.15 757.30 798.25 814.46 809.49
Construction.................................... 19.00 19.15 19.13 19.24 741.00 741.11 738.42 754.21
Manufacturing................................... 15.68 16.05 16.09 16.05 620.93 659.66 659.69 646.82
Durable goods.................................. 16.32 16.71 16.76 16.63 651.17 695.14 695.54 676.84
Wood products................................. 12.81 13.03 12.99 13.02 521.37 544.65 533.89 532.52
Nonmetallic mineral products.................. 15.83 16.18 16.24 16.34 666.44 684.41 690.20 692.82
Primary metals................................ 18.26 18.48 18.51 18.61 750.49 803.88 808.89 785.34
Fabricated metal products..................... 15.00 15.20 15.24 15.29 598.50 627.76 627.89 623.83
Machinery..................................... 16.36 16.53 16.56 16.64 651.13 700.87 698.83 690.56
Computer and electronic products.............. 16.79 17.11 17.22 17.41 669.92 694.67 699.13 706.85
Electrical equipment and appliances........... 14.31 14.83 14.89 14.91 568.11 613.96 611.98 600.87
Transportation equipment...................... 20.76 21.29 21.38 20.80 824.17 915.47 912.93 844.48
Furniture and related products................ 12.97 13.04 13.11 13.16 504.53 517.69 521.78 515.87
Miscellaneous manufacturing................... 13.26 13.76 13.83 14.01 501.23 535.26 531.07 533.78
Nondurable goods............................... 14.71 14.98 15.03 15.13 575.16 602.20 604.21 600.66
Food manufacturing............................ 12.84 12.94 13.00 13.11 499.48 511.13 512.20 511.29
Beverages and tobacco products................ 17.86 19.55 19.35 19.48 692.97 774.18 758.52 757.77
Textile mills................................. 11.97 12.08 12.13 12.00 440.50 486.82 490.05 481.20
Textile product mills......................... 11.28 11.30 11.30 11.33 446.69 436.18 445.22 435.07
Apparel....................................... 9.68 9.55 9.60 9.66 332.02 346.67 348.48 343.90
Leather and allied products................... 11.52 11.49 11.59 11.66 449.28 441.22 443.90 431.42
Paper and paper products...................... 17.45 17.88 17.86 17.90 713.71 756.32 748.33 746.43
Printing and related support activities....... 15.39 15.51 15.56 15.72 578.66 594.03 594.39 602.08
Petroleum and coal products................... 23.14 24.41 24.24 24.31 1022.79 1091.13 1098.07 1123.12
Chemicals..................................... 18.51 19.05 19.17 19.23 771.87 815.34 818.56 813.43
Plastics and rubber products.................. 14.38 14.55 14.58 14.70 566.57 595.10 599.24 583.59
Private service-providing.................. 14.87 15.24 15.14 15.15 481.79 496.82 489.02 492.38
Trade, transportation, and utilities............ 14.32 14.64 14.61 14.62 484.02 493.37 489.44 494.16
Wholesale trade................................ 17.33 17.67 17.58 17.66 653.34 674.99 661.01 667.55
Retail trade................................... 11.89 12.08 12.08 12.06 373.35 372.06 373.27 377.48
Transportation and warehousing................. 16.35 16.72 16.79 16.88 603.32 627.00 621.23 627.94
Utilities...................................... 24.64 25.53 25.30 25.40 1007.78 1054.39 1044.89 1026.16
Information..................................... 21.01 21.41 21.17 21.25 762.66 777.18 774.82 771.38
Financial activities............................ 17.29 17.62 17.37 17.43 610.34 637.84 611.42 615.28
Professional and business services.............. 17.07 17.45 17.29 17.31 580.38 603.77 589.59 590.27
Education and health services................... 15.62 16.00 16.06 16.14 504.53 521.60 518.74 524.55
Leisure and hospitality......................... 8.68 8.85 8.78 8.80 226.55 229.22 227.40 231.44
Other services.................................. 13.72 13.90 13.81 13.77 430.81 435.07 428.11 429.62
If the numbers had been really good, the markets would have taken a dump anyway.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.