Strategy Memo: The Democratic Convention and Its Effect on the Presidential Race

George W. Bush ^ | August 3, 2004

[RWR8189]

TO:  Bush-Cheney '04 Campaign Leadership
FM:  Matthew Dowd
       Chief Strategist
RE:  The Democratic convention and its
       effect on the presidential race

---

John Kerry becomes the first presidential candidate since 1972 to receive a negative bounce from his convention.  Kerry’s performance in Gallup's post-convention poll is even worse than George McGovern’s in 1972, making it the worst convention bounce in Gallup’s history of presidential campaign polling. 

"An examination of Gallup polls in presidential elections since 1976 reveals that a challenger's vice presidential selection and nominating convention can have a dramatic (if often short-lived) effect on the head-to-head poll numbers.  In fact, historical analysis suggests John Kerry should have a lead of more than 15 points coming out of his convention." 

-- Matthew Dowd, 7/5/04

"Poll: No Bump For Kerry After Convention"
USA Today, 8/2/04

"No Convention Bounce For Kerry"
CBS News.com, 8/2/04

"What Bounce?"
ABC News.com, 8/2/04

"A Baby Bounce?"
Newsweek, 7/31/04

Kerry's "thud" is confirmed by the Newsweek poll which showed that John Kerry received a two-point bounce from his convention (the smallest in the history of the Newsweek poll) and the CBS News poll which showed a one-point bounce.  While John Kerry initially received a boost in polling conducted Friday night, it quickly dissipated over the weekend, bringing the race back to where it was before the convention: a dead heat.

No incumbent president has ever lost re-election when leading in the Gallup poll after his opponent's convention.  As can be seen in the below chart, every successful challenger since 1964 has led in the Gallup poll after his convention, while every unsuccessful challenger has trailed in the Gallup poll after his convention.  The race now most closely resembles 1996, when President Clinton held a single-digit lead over Bob Dole immediately following the Republican convention. 

GallupPolls: Post-ChallengerConventions



Moving forward, we expect a tight race through the month of August, as well as after the Republican convention.

[RockinRight]

Based on that data, we should expect Bush to win. There are a lot of other things slowly moving in his direction, as well. Although the economic news and terror threats are disturbing (the terror for obviously other reasons as well), things are looking better for GWB.

[GVnana]

we expect a tight race through the month of August, as well as after the Republican convention.

We got work to do.

[EllaMinnow]

I just read this report on the Kerry Spot at nro.com. It seems to fit right in this thread.

_________________________________________


BOUNCES, GROUND GAMES AND AD BUYS [08/03 12:35 PM]

Q: What do you think of argument that so few undecideds that neither will get a boost from convention? Thoughts on how remaining undecideds will shift?

Dowd: We will see what happens with our convention. I expect normal 2/3 of challenger bounce. Not many undecideds remaining. I expected them to get a much bigger bounce. They owned five days. I expected them to get some lift from that, but it didn't happen. On the popular vote, if the GOP doesn't grow among Hispanics, African-Amerians and women, we will not grow. We're doing better today among those groups than we did in 2000.

In 2002, we won a lot of close races by doing what we needed to do. We're ahead of where we were two years ago. We're doing what we need to win this thing.

Q: Media fund advantage?

Dowd: They won't have a 2 to 1 advantage. There just isn't enough time left to buy this month for one side to overwhelm the other.


CHANGING TACTICS, CAMPAIGN SPENDING [08/03 12:29 PM]

Ken Mehlman: Sen. Kerry seems to change tactics and change strategy sometimes in the middle of a speech.

Q: Outspent by third-party groups for Kerry?

Matthew Dowd: No idea of any outside groups running pro-Bush ads. I don't expect to be outspent 2 to 1. But you just never know, the Kerry friends out there willing to put millions and millions of dollars into attacking the president. Don't expect to be outspent between now and the convention 2 to 1, but we will be the underdog in terms of spending. We have been underdog in money situation since this campaign began.

MORE FROM BUSH CAMPAIGN CONFERENCE CALL [08/03 12:22 PM]

Mehlman: Sen. Kerry facing an increasing credibility problem with voters. Hasn't addressed position in Iraq. Hasn't explained how he will pay for all his programs. Hasn't addressed an extreme voting record. Hasn't explained how you can vote to send troops into harm's way and then vote against sending them body armor and the support they need.

Matthew Dowd: Between five and seven percent say they're undecided. Some soft voters on each side.

Q: Reaction to Kerry statement that Bush policies are creating more terrorists?

Mehlman: Terrorists hate us because we're responding to their war on us.

When you look at all this together, you see someone flailing around. Kerry has said it's not a war, it's more of a intelligence and law enforcement effort. He doesn't understand a threat. He has a pre-9/11 worldview.

DOWD: BUSH CAMPAIGN EXPECTS NO GOP CONVENTION BOUNCE [08/03 12:17 PM]

Dowd: Looking at history, incumbents usually get about 2/3 of what challenger's bounce. If challenger had zero bounce, 2/3 of zero bounce is still zero.

(Lower! Those! Expectations!)

CONFERENCE CALL WITH KEN MEHLMAN AND MATTHEW DOWD [08/03 12:10 PM]

Ken Mehlman states Bush already implementing 36 of 41 recommendations by 9/11 Commission.

Dowd: The 15 point bounce didn't happen. Worst lift in the poll since McGovern in 1972. In Gallup, any time a challenger is behind coming out of his convention, he has lost. Kerry's closest historical parallel is to Dole in 1996

http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerryspot.asp

(PS - you've got incoming freepmail.)

[JohnnyZ]

The race now most closely resembles 1996, when President Clinton held a single-digit lead over Bob Dole immediately following the Republican convention.

That has been my standing theory. A President hated virulently by the Right (now Left) and a boring Senator (Dole, now Kerry) chosen as the safe, establishment option. The differences are that Kerry is better funded than Dole was and he doesn't have Perot to muddle things, though he still has Nader, ha ha ha.

[gcruse]

Dead in the Water

[gcruse]

. A President hated virulently by the Right (now Left) and a boring Senator (Dole, now Kerry) chosen as the safe, establishment option.

A President hated virulently by the Right -- Woodrow Wilson -- The election campaign was primarily a referendum on the Wilson presidency

A boring Senator -- Warren G Harding -- wins

[JohnnyZ]

I'm not sure an open seat race qualifies as a strong parallel.

[Vinomori]

It's waaay to early to celebrate any of this. Kerry is a known closer. He always closes strong, focuses himself and ends up winning. Dean thought he'd won the nomination. Weld thought he had beaten him. If we relax now, we are through.

[JohnnyZ]

That will only be true if polls other than Gallup show Bush with the lead.

Obviously the situations aren't the same -- there is no Perot now, for example, which obviously has an effect on the polls, too -- but there remains a strong fundamental parallel.

[gcruse]

The election was a referendum on Wilson by a nation exhausted from fighting WWI and terrified by anarchism -- the Red Scare -- mail bombs -- a huge bomb explosion on Wall Street ---

[EllaMinnow]

A boring Senator -- Warren G Harding -- wins.

Yes, after Wilson served TWO full terms and had a massive stroke.

[counterpunch]

 
 
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[JohnnyZ]

Okay, maybe you didn't understand me: an open seat DOESN'T QUALIFY AS A STRONG PARALLEL. There's a huge difference between choosing whether to keep an incumbent in times of trouble and choosing someone new in times of trouble.

[gcruse]

Thanks for explaining the rules. The fact that the 1920 campaign was a referendum on Wilson, the League of Nations, et al, mustn't get in the way of someone else's parallel. My bad.

[Coop]

The jobs numbers out on Friday are crucial. If the numbers come out stronger than expected, then the economy has a good chance of performing strongly throughout the fall. If, however, the jobs numbers are again dissapointing, then the slowdown can become a successful issue for the Dems. It's almost a make or break moment.

Well, the anticipated number I saw this morning was 243K. That's pretty high. So if you set your bar against that, there's a good chance you'll be disappointed. But I don't think any objective person would view the creation of 225K or 175K jobs as disappointing.

[JohnnyZ]

Thanks for explaining the rules.

Geez o' Pete, get over yourself. It's a common enough contention that open seats are vastly different from incumbency races -- if you want to buck the conventional wisdom, fine, but don't get huffy when you hear it.

[Southack]

The hidden story in the recent polls is that Senator Kerry went from 43% pre-convention up to 46% post-convention...

dramatic pause

...in the numbers of Americans who view him as a liberal.

The Democratic Convention in Boston has managed to define Senator Kerry to voters as a liberal.

He's done. Renowned liberals don't win the Presidency.

5 Legislative Days Left Until The AWB Expires