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Based on that data, we should expect Bush to win. There are a lot of other things slowly moving in his direction, as well. Although the economic news and terror threats are disturbing (the terror for obviously other reasons as well), things are looking better for GWB.
We got work to do.
I just read this report on the Kerry Spot at nro.com. It seems to fit right in this thread.
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BOUNCES, GROUND GAMES AND AD BUYS [08/03 12:35 PM]
Q: What do you think of argument that so few undecideds that neither will get a boost from convention? Thoughts on how remaining undecideds will shift?
Dowd: We will see what happens with our convention. I expect normal 2/3 of challenger bounce. Not many undecideds remaining. I expected them to get a much bigger bounce. They owned five days. I expected them to get some lift from that, but it didn't happen. On the popular vote, if the GOP doesn't grow among Hispanics, African-Amerians and women, we will not grow. We're doing better today among those groups than we did in 2000.
In 2002, we won a lot of close races by doing what we needed to do. We're ahead of where we were two years ago. We're doing what we need to win this thing.
Q: Media fund advantage?
Dowd: They won't have a 2 to 1 advantage. There just isn't enough time left to buy this month for one side to overwhelm the other.
CHANGING TACTICS, CAMPAIGN SPENDING [08/03 12:29 PM]
Ken Mehlman: Sen. Kerry seems to change tactics and change strategy sometimes in the middle of a speech.
Q: Outspent by third-party groups for Kerry?
Matthew Dowd: No idea of any outside groups running pro-Bush ads. I don't expect to be outspent 2 to 1. But you just never know, the Kerry friends out there willing to put millions and millions of dollars into attacking the president. Don't expect to be outspent between now and the convention 2 to 1, but we will be the underdog in terms of spending. We have been underdog in money situation since this campaign began.
MORE FROM BUSH CAMPAIGN CONFERENCE CALL [08/03 12:22 PM]
Mehlman: Sen. Kerry facing an increasing credibility problem with voters. Hasn't addressed position in Iraq. Hasn't explained how he will pay for all his programs. Hasn't addressed an extreme voting record. Hasn't explained how you can vote to send troops into harm's way and then vote against sending them body armor and the support they need.
Matthew Dowd: Between five and seven percent say they're undecided. Some soft voters on each side.
Q: Reaction to Kerry statement that Bush policies are creating more terrorists?
Mehlman: Terrorists hate us because we're responding to their war on us.
When you look at all this together, you see someone flailing around. Kerry has said it's not a war, it's more of a intelligence and law enforcement effort. He doesn't understand a threat. He has a pre-9/11 worldview.
DOWD: BUSH CAMPAIGN EXPECTS NO GOP CONVENTION BOUNCE [08/03 12:17 PM]
Dowd: Looking at history, incumbents usually get about 2/3 of what challenger's bounce. If challenger had zero bounce, 2/3 of zero bounce is still zero.
(Lower! Those! Expectations!)
CONFERENCE CALL WITH KEN MEHLMAN AND MATTHEW DOWD [08/03 12:10 PM]
Ken Mehlman states Bush already implementing 36 of 41 recommendations by 9/11 Commission.
Dowd: The 15 point bounce didn't happen. Worst lift in the poll since McGovern in 1972. In Gallup, any time a challenger is behind coming out of his convention, he has lost. Kerry's closest historical parallel is to Dole in 1996
http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerryspot.asp
(PS - you've got incoming freepmail.)
That has been my standing theory. A President hated virulently by the Right (now Left) and a boring Senator (Dole, now Kerry) chosen as the safe, establishment option. The differences are that Kerry is better funded than Dole was and he doesn't have Perot to muddle things, though he still has Nader, ha ha ha.
It's waaay to early to celebrate any of this. Kerry is a known closer. He always closes strong, focuses himself and ends up winning. Dean thought he'd won the nomination. Weld thought he had beaten him. If we relax now, we are through.
The hidden story in the recent polls is that Senator Kerry went from 43% pre-convention up to 46% post-convention...dramatic pause
...in the numbers of Americans who view him as a liberal.
The Democratic Convention in Boston has managed to define Senator Kerry to voters as a liberal.
He's done. Renowned liberals don't win the Presidency.
5 Legislative Days Left Until The AWB Expires