[JohnnyZ]

The race now most closely resembles 1996, when President Clinton held a single-digit lead over Bob Dole immediately following the Republican convention.

That has been my standing theory. A President hated virulently by the Right (now Left) and a boring Senator (Dole, now Kerry) chosen as the safe, establishment option. The differences are that Kerry is better funded than Dole was and he doesn't have Perot to muddle things, though he still has Nader, ha ha ha.

[gcruse]

. A President hated virulently by the Right (now Left) and a boring Senator (Dole, now Kerry) chosen as the safe, establishment option.

A President hated virulently by the Right -- Woodrow Wilson -- The election campaign was primarily a referendum on the Wilson presidency

A boring Senator -- Warren G Harding -- wins