Posted on 08/03/2004 7:02:20 AM PDT by veronica
BUSH BY A LANDSLIDE
A Yale economist, Ray Fair has constructed a model that predicts the outcome of presidential elections using economic data alone. The model’s predictive power? As good as that of any model and better than that of most.
What does the Fair model predict for 2004? Bush will win in a landslide, capturing more than 57 percent of the vote. To see for yourself, click here...
| Presidential Vote Equation |
| The following paper presents the November 1, 2002, update of the vote equation. No specification changes were made for this update from the previous update (in November 1998), which itself was unchanged from the update before that. The equation was simply reestimated using the latest data. This paper also contains the first prediction for 2004 using the 2002 update. November 2002 update paper and the November 1, 2002, prediction Compute your own prediction for 2004 using the 2002 update Predictions for 2004 using 2002 update: January 30, 2003, prediction April 25, 2003, prediction July 31, 2003, prediction October 31, 2003, prediction February 5, 2004, prediction April 29, 2004, prediction July 31, 2004, prediction Earlier update papers: 1982 1988 1990 1996 1998 Original paper: 1978 Non technical discussion: Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things (Chapters 1, 3, and 4) |
The most dangerous mindset will be for conservatives to begin feeling " comfortable" with the stats and then sit back and wait for the grandslam.!!!! Posts like this, although they do make us ALL feel most wonderful and comforted inside, can be deadly.....we MUST KEEP WORKING , and campaigning and rolling up our sleeves. DO YOU HAVE A BUMPER STICKER ON YOUR CAR??????????????
Thanks for the info,I will work as if he is going to be defeated, and then BASK in the joy of his re-election in November!!!
Americans will elect Bush again.
I have to agree. Kerry is going out doing public appearances and stumbling and bumbling... Edwards did a Florida gig yesterday that 8 people showed for. I think his base is fading.
We here how Bush can energize a crowd. He is strong consistant and has direction.
Oh yeah how many Dems turned rep. on september 11 that you are forgeting about.
You are kidding right? If not, that is pathetic.
"i want W to win by one electoral vote again... just to enrage the libs"
I want W to win with 400+ electoral votes and 60% of the vote.
Just to get the libs to s**t up for a while.
I think there's a very slim chance...Kerry doesn't even "show". I know that scenario has been "beat-to-death" but I think it's possible..under the right set of circumstances.
I think there's a fair chance he loses, and it's clear-cut.
I also think there's a good chance he loses...in a tight one ( somewhat, but not exactly like 2000 ) and there's DemoMarxistSocialistLyingClymerLib violence in the streets.
I think there unfortunately is also a fair chance he wins...in a tight one, and we slip and slide faster and faster down the Socialist tubes.
I also reserve the right to be very surprised..and find out that the sheeple were awakened...and swept Kerry down the drain.
We shall see....
FRegards,
No one with any sense was brain washed by that moron. On the contrary, normal, hardworking Americans see him for what he is...A loon. He's the Left's Michael Savage...An embarrassment.
Moore Food is preaching to the chior with that propaganda. He's a net plus for us.
i can live with scenario, too
agree. the slob alienates more and more people, forcing them to take a HARD look at sKerry, who Mooreon is pulling for!
GO TUBBY GO
"i want W to win by one electoral vote again... just to enrage the libs"
I'd rather see a Texas-sized-boot-stompin'-butt-kickin'-electoral-poundin'-no-snippiness-accusatin' Presidential victory the likes of which we have never seen before.
I want the libs to go in a cave and hide. Let them try to spin that!!!
I on the other hand, want Bush to sweep the Dems away with such a landslide that they will never recover.
That's how I felt in 1976. Then Carter won. That's how I felt about Klinton - twice. I'm not so confident in the public's brain power any more, but I'm sure hoping a lot.
I realize the counter-argument to this is the 12 years of Reagan/Bush, in the face of the MM's best efforts.. but I'm a chronic pessimist.
I think his model is "misspecified". But I hope I'm wrong.
Stay Focused, Stay Loud...All the left has been doing in the past year is scream. By screaming they get attention. They don't have the better message just the biggest mouths....SPEAK OUT! BE HEARD!
October 27, 2000:
"The Democrats are thus predicted to win with 50.8 percent of the two party vote. Given that the standard error of the equation is 2.15 percentage points, the election is essentially predicted to be too close to call. The equation will have done well if the election is close regardless of who wins. If either Bush or Gore wins by a fairly wide margin, say with 54 or 55 percent of the two party vote, the equation will have done poorly."
It is a model, but it did pretty darn well predicting a close race. He revised it after the 2002 election.
Give or take 2-3 points, it seems like it has been fairly accurate, at least in 2000. Of course, that 2-3 points can mean the difference between winning and losing.
Actual results in 2000:
47.87% Bush
48.38% Gore
"Bush will win in a landslide, capturing more than 57 percent of the vote."
I'll be surprised if Kerry gets 10 states.
Agreed.
The congressional ballot question is pretty heavily favored Dem.
And what happens when they realize they have nothing more to lose?
I'm just hoping the MSCA missions we've planned don't get used.
Yeah, but most of the libs are anti-gun.
Unless we also have 61 reliable Senate votes - a Bush victory is mostly wasted. Think of how the Senate Dems have stopped up everything, espcially judicial appointments.
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