Not sure if this will bear out this time with other concerns skewing the mindset of the electorate....Then again, I'm still expecting a clear Bush win.
Posted on 08/03/2004 7:02:20 AM PDT by veronica
BUSH BY A LANDSLIDE
A Yale economist, Ray Fair has constructed a model that predicts the outcome of presidential elections using economic data alone. The model’s predictive power? As good as that of any model and better than that of most.
What does the Fair model predict for 2004? Bush will win in a landslide, capturing more than 57 percent of the vote. To see for yourself, click here...
| Presidential Vote Equation |
| The following paper presents the November 1, 2002, update of the vote equation. No specification changes were made for this update from the previous update (in November 1998), which itself was unchanged from the update before that. The equation was simply reestimated using the latest data. This paper also contains the first prediction for 2004 using the 2002 update. November 2002 update paper and the November 1, 2002, prediction Compute your own prediction for 2004 using the 2002 update Predictions for 2004 using 2002 update: January 30, 2003, prediction April 25, 2003, prediction July 31, 2003, prediction October 31, 2003, prediction February 5, 2004, prediction April 29, 2004, prediction July 31, 2004, prediction Earlier update papers: 1982 1988 1990 1996 1998 Original paper: 1978 Non technical discussion: Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things (Chapters 1, 3, and 4) |
What was the prediction in 2000?
FYI...
I just open by eyes and ears to the non-filtered, non-biased news and it's clear.
But Zogby says Bush should start packing his bags and reserve a U-Haul for November.
The "click here" link will take you to the page with the hot links.
Ping.
But does it factor in people being brainwashed by Michael Moore and the liberal media? Wild-card.
A landslide of 57%? I've never heard it referred to as a landslide before.
"The actual outcome was that Gore received 50.3 percent of the two party vote. The last prediction on this site (October 27, 2000), which used actual values for all the economic variables, was that Gore would receive 50.8 percent of the two party vote. The error is thus 0.5 percentage points. The standard error of the equation is 2.15 percentage points, and so the actual error is well within one standard error. The presidential vote equation thus did extremely well."
I started out thinking this election would be a Bush by a landslide win. Then i became much less sure and even worried that Bush could lose this one. Now I'm back to thinking it will be a Bush win by a fair margin of at least 10%.
Not sure if this will bear out this time with other concerns skewing the mindset of the electorate....Then again, I'm still expecting a clear Bush win.
America is not going to elect a metrosexual gigolo. He is a faux war hero. A faux man. A pompous windbag. A liar and a hypocrite. Kerry will go down with a bang and cry when he falls.
Kerry by 2%
Too many folks are buying his "nuance" BS.
That's a 14 point spread in a two-way race. That is a landslide.
I agree, atomicpossum. This electoral cycle promises to be unusual. Bush should win, but not with 57% of the popular vote.
I only see one issue in this election. Who will win Ohio.
George Bush won a landslide in 1988 and got 53.4% of the vote. In 1984 Reagan won 58 to 40% and it was the biggest landslide in history. I would consider anything over 53% for GW a Kerry ass-whoopin'.
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