Posted on 08/02/2004 12:37:04 PM PDT by ambrose
August 2, 2004
Kerry and Bush Remain in Statistical Tie
John Kerry and George W. Bush remain in a statistical tie among Americans registered to vote according to a nationwide survey from the American Research Group, Inc. In the ballot preference between Kerry and Bush, 49% say they would vote for Kerry and 46% say they would vote for Bush. When Ralph Nader is added to the ballot, 49% say they would vote for Kerry, 45% say they would vote for Bush, and 2% say they would vote for Nader.
The results presented here are based on 776 completed telephone interviews conducted among a nationwide random sample of registered voters. The interviews were completed July 30 through August 1, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanresearchgroup.com ...
Pretty sweet -- and it's a registered-voter poll. I suspect it would show Bush with a slight lead among likely voters.
ARG polls are usually not very accurate and are very biased, maybe more so than any other poll out there.
why does this poll consistantly have Kerry ahead?
ARG, along with CBS and Newsweak, are among the most pro-Democrat of pollsters...
ping
Nice bounce for the Frenchurian Candidate, al Kerry.:)
According to Frank Rich (NYT) this is all meaningless. No correlation between polls after convention and who gets elected. What in the hell is this guy talking about. 1972 is the last time this has happened. I think that was McGovern and I don't think he did that well in the GE.
yup - it is striking that this pro-Rat Pollster couldn't sauce up a more favorable poll for Kerry.
An image of the cover of the new book 'Our Plan For America' by Democratic presidential nominee, Senator John Kerry (news - web sites) (R), and his running mate, Senator John Edwards (news - web sites). The book was unveiled August 2, 2004. REUTERS/Mike Segar US ELECTION
The results so far:
Newsweek flash poll -- small bounce
Zogby -- tiny bounce
Gallup -- negative bounce
CBS -- tiny bounce
ARG -- no bounce or slight negative bounce
It's not a thick book, not like some folks write.. in fact, it's a very lean book. ;-)
There is no information about how the poll was weighted. The polls are meaninngless without that information.
Not even full potency Zogby Sauce(tm) made a difference. And that defies physics.
nothing but polls to the left and polls to the right do I see... November can't get here quick enuf. ;-)
But to hear the media spinmiesters, you'd think that Kerry was beating Bush by a mile. It wasn't a bounce-more like a trip and stumble.
Pretty good since ARG polls are slanted for the rats.
>>Newsweek flash poll -- small bounce
>>Zogby -- tiny bounce
>>Gallup -- negative bounce
>>CBS -- tiny bounce
>>ARG -- no bounce or slight negative bounce
Rasmussen -- negative bounce.
Mondale was doing better in 1984.
I think they call that a "dead rat bounce".
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