Posted on 08/02/2004 8:54:08 AM PDT by Nascardude
Monday August 02, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows Senator John Kerry with 47% of the vote and President George W. Bush with 46%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.
Today is the first Tracking Poll data based entirely upon interviews conducted after John Kerry's speech at the Democratic National Convention. The results reflect a one-point improvement for the Kerry/Edwards ticket. That's well within the survey margin of error and also reflects a two-point net decline from the poll results immediately prior to Kerry's speech.
One week ago today, the last Tracking Poll before the convention began showed Kerry and Bush tied at 46% each. Just before his speech, Kerry was leading 48% to 45%.
When comparing the convention "bounce" measured by various polling organizations, the timing of the polls must be taken into account. At Rasmussen Reports, we track the race daily while other organizations do so more sporadically.
If we compare the same polling nights as Gallup's pre-and post convention polls, Rasmussen Reports data shows that Kerry had a negative bounce of one-point during that time frame. Our data also shows a slight negative bounce over the time frame measured by Newsweek.
Later today, at 3:00 p.m. Eastern, we will release data showing if ideological perceptions of Kerry and Edwards shifted following the Democratic Convention. Before the festivities in Boston, 41% of voters saw John Kerry as politically moderate and 43% saw him as liberal.
Also at 3:00, we will provide our weekly update on who voters believe is winning the War on Terror. We will also look at who voters believe is a better leader--George Bush or John Kerry.
Beginning tomorrow, and continuing throughout the week, we will release a new wave of Rasmussen Reports state election polls to update our Electoral College projections. Currently, we show Kerry with a modest lead, 227-208. There are 103 Electoral Votes in the Toss-Up category.
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Our latest update shows that voters remain evenly divided between Kerry and Bush when it comes to the economy. Bush retains a very modest advantage on the issues of national defense and the War on Terror. Results on both issues are essentially unchanged over the past week and will be updated again next week.
Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters say it is more important to insure that Iraq becomes a peaceful nation enjoying freedom and democracy than to bring home our troops as soon as possible. A Rasmussen Reports survey found that 39% take the opposite view and believe that bringing home the troops is a higher priority.
While this is no doubt encouraging, it's really not unexpected, not this year. This year, everyone is "energized" behind their respective leader. The nation is quite divided, after the 2000 election debacle. Unfortunately, the Dem slime machine has been very effective in convincing people that votes were "disenfranchised" then, and that Bush was "selected", not "elected". The reprocussions from the Floriduh travesty will probably reach into 2008, and possibly into 2012.
I hate to be a wet blanket, but there will be no significant bounce for Bush after his convention speech either. If I'm wrong, I'll gladly eat crow on this one.
Hmmmm… I’m not so sure. Never forget who “profits” from a Kerry lost. HRC. The Clintoons are only looking out for themselves, not the party. HRC will be reigning in the Clintonistas. If the Dims go negative, it won’t be from the Hillary wing.
It doesn't mean that W is guaranteed a victory by any means, but it is a major shot in the arm for his campaign. JFnK was not able to add ANY voters to his ranks during his convention -- his best chance to do so. His support may have maxed out.
W still needs to close the deal, but he is in great shape to do so. Had he fallen behind by double digits, it may have been too large an obstacle to overcome.
This is the best possible outcome for the GOP. Any arguments otherwise are just spin.
I think "Lerch" is a sicko!!!!
I agree. There are some folks who think this is going to be a "slam dunk" for W. I think we should *never* misunderestimate the democrats. They are incapable of telling the truth, and most have an IQ of room temperature in an igloo.
We'll know later today, but I have checked "The Note" and I am not at all sure that that's what they are saying here. In any event, Gallup is still the best national polling firm in the business. As I remember it, they don't cook (i.e. weight) their samples by party affiliation and they do the best job of actually identifying likely voters among those who say they intend to vote. Keep an eye on Gallup and the poll that AP uses, and pay attention to the rest (mostly cooked polls for media clients) only to detect trends in the numbers.
Yup... and expect a surprise the Friday before the election.
The only way to counter is to give them a surprise of our own.
She got a lot of publicity in the Pittsburgh PA area last weekend, when she and Kerry spoke at a rally at nearby Greensburg. I wasn't impressed with her, but then I'm not in her Democratic base. The media kept pushing the wife as the local Pittsburgh connection. Hell, her only local Pittsburgh connection is her marriage to John Heinz. He died and she took his money out of state.
You're forgetting something.
Thousands of unwashed DUers will be taking the streets durig the convention in NYC, making a$$es out of themselves.
It will be only too easy to associate them with Kerry. Trust me, the GOP will have a much larger bounce than Kerry
The dems must be so hopping mad. They'll probably say, "Not only did George W. Bush steal the election from Al Gore, he stole John Kerry's bounce!"
Or how 'bout, "Hi, I'm John F'ing Kerry, and I'm full of dooty"
Do not worry about swing voters, all what we need to do is get our base out on Election Day and we will win big.
There's a couple of possibilities. One is the electorate is polarized, and there won't be any bounces this year for either convention. The networks are spending less time covering the conventions and fewer people are watching them, which has a dampening effect on bounces.
Another possibility is that Bush does get a bounce. If Bush gets a bounce, even a small one, and that sticks, then Kerry is already in trouble (but we won't know this until later).
Another possible positive for Bush is 9/11. Having the convention in NYC, and then 9/11 coming is fortuitious, and there's a decent chance Bush will be helped.
At any rate, July is over, and July should have been a favorable month for Kerry, but it wasn't, and that's good news no matter how you slice it.
"The media kept pushing the wife as the local Pittsburgh connection. Hell, her only local Pittsburgh connection is her marriage to John Heinz. He died and she took his money out of state."
Yep. And 57 (ironic, huh?) Heinz factories operate overseas, compared to the overall total of 79.
I can't help but laugh whenever her latest hubby talks about outsourcing overseas......
THe key word in that poll is "deserve". I'm voting for Bush but he doesn't "deserve" re-election, he must continue to earn it. I'm sure many people like me react to that word negatively also. It contains a bias that provides a predetermined result. To meaningful the results need to be compared to asking wether Kerry "deserved" to be elected.
Hopefully the Bush campaign reminds voters that John Kerry also thought Saddam was monster and that our war over there was justified. There are a dozen or so clips from various talking head shows making the rounds on the Internet (think there was a link posted here) that show John Kerry sounding just like President Bush (regarding Iraq).
Those clips would make for excellent campaign commercials - Bush commercials.
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