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Bush, Kerry aides debate conflicting polls [IOW, the Democrats are losing, if we keep it up.]
The Dallas Morning News by way of "The State" news ^ | 01AUG04 | DAVID JACKSON

Posted on 08/01/2004 8:29:40 PM PDT by familyop

(KRT) - As John Kerry worked Sunday toward a late-day campaign appearance at a kids' softball game in Michigan, aides to him and President Bush began playing inside baseball with conflicting polls following the Democratic convention.

One survey showed Kerry increasing a lead; another put Bush ahead.

Kerry said polls don't matter, though he pointed out that a Newsweek one giving him a 7-point lead began interviewing people before his nomination acceptance speech Thursday.

"This will go up and down," Kerry said on "Fox News Sunday."

Indeed, just a few hours later, Kerry aides learned that a new USA Today/CNN/ Gallup Poll gave Bush a 4-point lead among likely voters; both surveys had error margins of plus or minus 4 percentage points - making the later poll a statistical dead heat.

Bush aides, meanwhile, said that they had fully expected a convention "bounce" for Kerry but that it appears to be a small one at best. They also noted that Bush gets the chance to tell his side of the story during the Republican convention, Aug. 30 through Sept. 2.

"We'll go into our convention, and then it will come out basically tied on Labor Day, is my expectation," said Bush pollster Matthew Dowd, also on "Fox News Sunday."

Kerry's bus tour rolled through Ohio and into Michigan as Sunday morning talk shows aired interviews with the Democratic nominee and running mate John Edwards.

Kerry planned to wrap up the day at a youth softball game in Taylor, Mich., near Detroit.

Edwards, who introduced Kerry at a rally here, peeled off later to start his own bus tour through the South, starting in Florida.

Kerry used the television interviews to attempt to answer Republican criticisms that his domestic programs would require a tax increase.

The Massachusetts senator said he would finance his plans by repealing Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, while seeking to juice the economy with new tax breaks for the middle class.

"No new taxes on the middle class," Kerry said on ABC's "This Week With George Stephanopoulos," adding later, "98 percent of Americans will get a tax cut under our plan."

Republicans called that a fiscal impossibility, given Kerry's pledges on health care, education, and investment in science and technology, combined with pledges to reduce the deficit.

Kerry said the deficit is the product of the Bush administration, in part because of poor planning for the war in Iraq.

Kerry told interviewers he would keep American troops in Iraq until it is stable but added that only a new president could pave the way for withdrawal by getting more countries involved in Iraq.

While saying on CBS' "Face The Nation" that "I'm not negotiating it publicly," Kerry said, "I know what I believe can be achieved."

"I think a fresh start for America, a new president with new credibility, has the capacity to bring people to the table who are not there today," Kerry said.

Republicans said Kerry's equivocation over Iraq calls into question his pledge to be a strong commander in chief.

They note that he voted to authorize the Iraq war in fall 2002. A year later, with anti-war sentiment rising among Democrats and presidential primaries looming, Kerry voted against a supplemental budget for the Iraq mission.

"These are not times for leaders who shift with the political winds, saying one thing one day and another the next," Vice President Dick Cheney told supporters this weekend in Arizona. "Our country requires strong and consistent leadership."



TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bounce; bush; convention; democrat; election; kerry; negative; poll; polls; republican
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Hmmm. Regarding the timing of all of this, the Democrat Campaign is in trouble, IMO. That is, if we keep pushing 'till it's all said and done,...
1 posted on 08/01/2004 8:29:44 PM PDT by familyop
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To: familyop

That's what Kerry gets for trying to be all things to all people.


2 posted on 08/01/2004 8:33:21 PM PDT by Eva
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To: familyop

What is clear is that Kerry got a historically low--perhaps even nonexistent--bounce from his convention.

What exactly that means for November is debatable, but it's certainly not good news for Kerry.


3 posted on 08/01/2004 8:33:48 PM PDT by ScottFromSpokane (Re-elect President Bush: http://spokanegop.org/bush.html)
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To: familyop

IN TOTAL AGREEMENT!
DRIVE ON AND,
GODSPEED!


4 posted on 08/01/2004 8:37:12 PM PDT by alpha-8-25-02 (saved by GRACE and GRACE alone)
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To: familyop
The Massachusetts senator said he would finance his plans by repealing Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, while seeking to juice the economy with new tax breaks for the middle class.

Deus ex machinas are a beautiful thing.

5 posted on 08/01/2004 8:37:40 PM PDT by Torie
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To: familyop

"No new taxes on the middle class," Kerry said on ABC's "This Week With George Stephanopoulos," adding later, "98 percent of Americans will get a tax cut under our plan."

Consider the statistics. 142 million returns were filed. 44 million file and don't pay any income tax. Who then will pay for government? Teresa?

Table 1:
Growing Share of Zero-Tax Filers

Number of Zero-tax Filers
(in Millions) Zero-tax Filers as a Percentage of All Filers
1980 18.6 19.8%
1985 16.7 16.5%
1990 21.5 19.0%
1995 26.7 22.6%

2000 29.9 23.1%
2004 est. 44.0 33.0%
Source: IRS Statistics of Income and Tax Foundation estimate.


6 posted on 08/01/2004 8:39:57 PM PDT by taxesareforever
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To: familyop

If Kerry allows the tax cuts to expire for everyone then offers his tax cuts for the middle class, is there really a tax cut? I think it's like a store selling a product on sale for 10% off after the store marked that product 15% higher.


7 posted on 08/01/2004 8:45:03 PM PDT by tobyhill (The war on terrorism is not for the weak!)
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To: familyop

Paraphasing President Reagan: 'there you go again, kissing the french's butt.


8 posted on 08/01/2004 8:48:43 PM PDT by GailA ( hanoi john, I'm for the death penalty for terrorist, before I impose a moratorium on it.)
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To: familyop
Kerry said polls don't matter, though he pointed out that a Newsweek one giving him a 7-point lead began interviewing people before his nomination acceptance speech Thursday...

Indeed, just a few hours later, Kerry aides learned that a new USA Today/CNN/ Gallup Poll gave Bush a 4-point lead among likely voters


Read these 2 fragments together... do you see it?
This only further proves that Kerry's speech hurt him. The NEWSPEAK poll was higher because part of the sample was taken before Kerry spoke. And the sad thing is that Kerry went out of his way to point this out.
9 posted on 08/01/2004 8:48:46 PM PDT by counterpunch (The CouNTeRPuNcH Collection - www.counterpunch.us)
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To: familyop
The Massachusetts senator said he would finance his plans by repealing Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, while seeking to juice the economy with new tax breaks for the middle class.

"No new taxes on the middle class," Kerry said on ABC's "This Week With George Stephanopoulos," adding later, "98 percent of Americans will get a tax cut under our plan."

Anybody remember the last time a democrat prez candidate made this promise? Feller named Clinton, wasn't it? Something about the biggest tax increase in history...

10 posted on 08/01/2004 8:49:24 PM PDT by Morgan's Raider
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To: familyop
fully expected a convention "bounce" for Kerry but that it appears to be a small one at best

Hehe...I didn't think there'd be a bounce.

11 posted on 08/01/2004 8:49:33 PM PDT by RockinRight (Liberalism IS the status quo)
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To: familyop

"We'll go into our convention, and then it will come out basically tied on Labor Day, is my expectation," said Bush pollster Matthew Dowd, also on "Fox News Sunday."

Dowd is getting to be the master of the understatement. Pitches them low and inside, doesn't he?


12 posted on 08/01/2004 8:50:54 PM PDT by Truth is a Weapon (Truth, it hurts soooo good!)
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To: familyop

The Newsweek poll is of "adults." Not "citizens". Not "eligible voters." Not "registered voters". Not "likely voters."


13 posted on 08/01/2004 8:52:12 PM PDT by Atlas Sneezed (Your Friendly Freeper Patent Attorney)
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To: taxesareforever

"98 percent of Americans will get a tax cut under our plan."



He's counting children, illegals, and the indigent, not just taxpayers.


14 posted on 08/01/2004 8:53:08 PM PDT by Atlas Sneezed (Your Friendly Freeper Patent Attorney)
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To: tobyhill

If the tax cuts expire it will mean a return to the old rates...a tax hike by default.


15 posted on 08/01/2004 8:53:50 PM PDT by GailA ( hanoi john, I'm for the death penalty for terrorist, before I impose a moratorium on it.)
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To: Beelzebubba
The Newsweek poll is of "adults." Not "citizens". Not "eligible voters." Not "registered voters". Not "likely voters."

They include terrorists in their poll to increase the numbers for Kerry.

16 posted on 08/01/2004 8:54:38 PM PDT by af_vet_1981
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To: familyop
These liberal idiots have brain damage from the kool-aid they've drank.

From a message board:

"You and your right-wing media can believe and report anything that you believe will benefit Shrub, but Bush will be beaten so bad this time that the Supreme Court won't be able to save him. He will go down in history as the only un-elected (p)resident, and this election will prove that he was illegitimate for the last four years. "

17 posted on 08/01/2004 8:55:41 PM PDT by Rebelbase (H.W.O.V. (How Would Osama Vote?))
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To: counterpunch
"Read these 2 fragments together... do you see it?" [Re. comment #9.]

Yes! That's worth remembering, for sure. There are a lot of people making a lot of good points in this thread. ...comments worth reading here.
18 posted on 08/01/2004 9:02:05 PM PDT by familyop (Essayons)
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To: Rebelbase
He will go down in history as the only un-elected (p)resident

Gerald Ford was not elected President.

Chester A. Arthur was not elected President.

Millard Fillmore was not elected President.

John Tyler was not elected President.

George W. Bush was elected President.

19 posted on 08/01/2004 9:16:10 PM PDT by VisualizeSmallerGovernment (Question Liberal Authority)
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To: Morgan's Raider

Well, there's a bit of old film footage that might deserve a bit of dusting off.


20 posted on 08/01/2004 9:19:06 PM PDT by GoLightly
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