Posted on 07/30/2004 5:37:15 PM PDT by RWR8189
Thursday's address could be key to election
PRINCETON, NJ -- It is clear that Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry's acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention may be one of the defining moments of the presidential campaign this year.
Here is a discussion of several key issues surrounding the speech -- from the public's perspective.
Is Kerry a "Blank Slate"?
Americans appear willing to give an opinion of Kerry when asked. The most recent Gallup/CNN/USA Today poll shows that only 8% of Americans said they either had never heard of Kerry or didn't know enough about him to have an opinion (55% viewed Kerry favorably, 37% unfavorably).
Also, a recent Los Angeles Times poll found that only a third of Americans say they don't know enough about Kerry to be able to make a decision on whether he would be a better president than George W. Bush -- not an insignificant number, to be sure, but certainly not a majority.
Still, it is reasonable to assume that Americans know less about Kerry than they do about Bush. Bush has been a constant presence in Americans' living rooms for 3 1/2 years; Kerry was relatively unknown outside of Massachusetts until recently.
Indeed, when pollsters have asked Americans how much they know about Kerry and Bush, the responses indicate a much greater void for the former. A recent ABC News/Washington Post poll, for example, asked voters, "How much do you feel you know about (NAME)'s positions on specific issues -- a great deal, a good amount, only some, or hardly anything?", and found that while 74% knew a great deal or a good amount about Bush's stances, only 45% said they knew a great deal or a good amount about Kerry's positions. Thus, the convention this week -- and Kerry's acceptance speech -- presumably will go a long way toward helping voters fill in the blanks in their views about the Democratic nominee.
Countering Bush's Position as Strong Leader
All available poll data show that, in the minds of Americans, Bush is viewed as a strong leader who takes positions and doesn't vary them.
Asked in the July 19-21 Gallup/CNN/USA Today poll which candidate "does not change his positions on issues for political reasons," likely voters chose Bush over Kerry by a 52% to 30% margin. Asked who is a "strong and decisive leader," voters chose Bush by a 54% to 37% margin.
It's important to keep in mind that the poll did not ask voters if these were positive traits. Presumably, some voters could feel that willingness to change one's positions on issues could be a good thing.
Still, the Bush re-election campaign apparently believes that changing one's positions on issues is an undesirable trait. Much of the paid advertising and public commentary by Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, and other surrogates in recent months has attempted to hammer home the image of Kerry as a "flip-flopper." To the degree that the "does not change positions on issues" question measures this quality, it appears that the Republicans have succeeded.
Cultural, Ideological Issues
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Gallup Ping
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When it comes down to it, the only people who will vote for Kerry are the 'anybudy but Bush' crowd and the 'yellow dog democrats' ... that I would think, should lead to a landslide for Bush
I pray you're right but it sounds like the so called independents are too stupid to understand that terrorism is the number one issue in the country,ie survival. And if oil prices don't come down soon, it's going to cripple the economy. That's why Q2 was weaker.
If the Bush team pounds the ideas that Bush did in Missouri, there shouldn't be a problem.
At least 2 liberals are underwhelmed by Kerry's showing yesterday. Bill Moyers and Kevin Phillips are discussing it on PBS. Both sound worried. KP is saying how he'd love to see a Ross Perot rise up in 2004 and refute Bush claims about the economy. Yeah I'll bet he'd love it! He knows without a double-digit dent in Bush ratings, Kerry will have a hard time winning. Kerry needs a Perot.
(McGovern had problems with his first V-P selection and had to replace him. Call me tinfoil hat but I would not be surprised to see pretty boy scumbag, class-action lawyer -- not all lawyers are bad -- asked to step aside.)
McGovern attracted the same rabid, elite ilk as Kerry. None of them knew anyone who was going to vote for Nixon.
I hope you are right but my optimism is declining a little. My wife and I just had dinner with some friends, who we considered pretty normal, and we were floored by their staunch support for Kerry. The clincher was when the wife asked me,"Don't you think Kerry will get us out of this war? He was a war hero you know..." Needless to say the dinner ended shortly thereafter. War hero my ass.
So, you're not going to be their friends anymore over the WH election?
Still friends, but won't be talking politics again anytime soon. Thank god football season is starting soon so that should fill the conversation vacuum.
Americans appear willing to give an opinion of Kerry when asked. The most recent Gallup/CNN/USA Today poll shows that only 8% of Americans said they either had never heard of Kerry or didn't know enough about him to have an opinion (55% viewed Kerry favorably, 37% unfavorably).
Watch for this number to change. And if you're a certain french looking candidate it's not going to change for the better.
Kerry La Pew...I love it!!
The best thing to do with people like that is NOT get mad, but start asking questions. "What do you mean a war hero?" "Do you know he only was in Viet Nam for 4 months, when a tour was 13?" "Do you know what he said when he came back?"
Don't you think Kerry will get us out of this war?
Tell her he's said he'll send MORE troops over.
Remember we have a powerful weapon on our side...the truth.
Advice freely given...and worth almost that much. :-)
My brother and his wife have always voted for democrats and have democratic clout but they both said they are voting for Bush this time. I jokingly asked if they were voting for the less of two evils and they said no, that Bush wasn't evil. I gave them a shocked look and they gave me a look of disgust that I'd even ask such a thing.
Good advice Valin, and well taken.
Why is Rush the only one reporting the horrible numbers that watched the Kerey speech. Does anyone have those numbers?
That makes me feel a little better. It's nice to know that there are still some decent people on the other side of the aisle. Hopefully more will wake up soon.
YOU ARE SO RIGHT I'M WORKING ON A DEMOCRAT RIGHT NOW AND MAKING SOME HEAD WAY. I WILL USE SOME OF YOU STUFF VERY GOOD.
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