Posted on 07/27/2004 9:44:37 AM PDT by quidnunc
I took two classes from Sabato at UVA - Politics 101 and a seminar on campaigns and elections. He was a real liberal in his youth, but as I got to know him he is a pretty objective political analyst. I always felt he knew Virginia politics better than U.S. but I would be interested to see the justification for his Kerry prediction.
Today's market tells me Wall Street thinks GWB is IN
Maniacs
Getting Cocky, more or less, is what always happens when Bill Clinton is around.
So9
A Gray Davis adviser, correct?
This is different from what, exactly? They've underestimated the President since 1999.
Lets review other "predictions" by notable Democrats since 2000, shall we?
Tom Daschle "Bush budget is DOA" - Budget Passed
Tom Daschle "Bush Tax Cuts DOA" - Tax Cuts Passed
Terry McAuffile - "Jeb Bush is going down" Jeb was reelected by a wide margin.
Terry McAuffile - "Catherine Harris is going down!" Congresswoman Harris not only won, but is now considering a run for the Senate, and the odds are in her favor from what I can tell.
The Democrats are not "giddy"....they are just as delusional as they have been since 2000.
wishful thinking .... just looking at the latest polls - No bounce
d'uh
Democrats saying the democrat will win? Never heard of such partisan politics in my whole life!
There has GOT to be other news, than a political party predicting they themselves will win the upcoming election.
Now, them saying Bush is going to win, that would be news!
If the Dems are feeling cocky they obviously have a hole in their pockets.
The same Bill Richardson who held a press conference to announce that he would refuse the Vice Presidency if Kerry offered it to him.
Another thing my husband reminded me of was how "cocky" the media and Dean were about him winning the nomination.
His fortune seemed to turn on a dime.
The sinkmeister gives one speech and they think suddenly they are annointed. heh heh
Heinz-Kerry could not win an election against John Ashcroft. Everyone's mind is already made up. They are going to vote for whoever they think is going to save their skin .... and that includes even a lot of dims.
I think we can count on Osama to strike before the election as well. His goal is to draw the West into a total clash of civilizations and Bush is his man for that.
Zell Miller, Ed Koch, Ron Silver, plus I know some Gore voters who are solidly behind Bush.
Richardson probably refused for that reason.
Actually, there are, believe it or not. They're the people who sidled up to you after 9/11 and quietly told you they were now glad that Gore wasn't elected.
Other than those folks, I can two more right off the bat: Zell Miller & Ed Koch. Both voted for the Dem nominee last time; both commit to Bush this time.
Why are the Dems more motivated? The GOP does better in REGISTERED voter than LIKELY VOTER polls. This is something that almost never happens. Usually the GOP is better in likely voter. Now....it is not a big difference...Kerry only gains 2 points among likely voters and the Bush team stays even...but, it may be enought to show voter motivation. And it is not a good sign.
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. July 20-21, 2004. N=900 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3), including 767 likely voters (MoE ± 4). |
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"If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Republican George W. Bush, Democrat John Kerry, and independent candidate Ralph Nader?" Names rotated; respondents pushed for decision. Nader identified as Green Party candidate in 2/04 poll. |
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George W. Bush |
John Kerry |
Ralph Nader |
Other (vol.)/ Not Sure |
Wouldn't Vote (vol.) |
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% | % | % | % | % | |||
Among likely voters: | |||||||
7/20-21/04 | 43 | 44 | 3 | 9 | 1 | ||
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Among registered voters: | |||||||
7/20-21/04 | 43 | 42 | 4 | 10 | 1 | ||
6/22-23/04 | 47 | 40 | 3 | 9 | 1 | ||
6/8-9/04 | 42 | 42 | 3 | 12 | 1 | ||
5/18-19/04 | 40 | 40 | 3 | 15 | 2 | ||
4/21-22/04 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 14 | 2 | ||
3/23-24/04 | 43 | 42 | 3 | 10 | 2 | ||
2/18-19/04 | 43 | 42 | 4 | 9 | 2 | ||
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The stormy sea of rabid delegates was truly disturbing by their foaming hatred of President George W Bush. They are billing this as an optimistic message, but there is no optimism only the tired Taxes on the Rich and Hatred of America. Oh, they are trying to wrap it in flowery language and the key catch phrases but when you peel at the onion you can tell what they want is more taxes and our Troops wearing Baby Blue helmets. What makes these extremists believe that we can trust an organization that is completely corrupt and full of terrorists, the UN that is.
The Rats waited with bated breath as The Wicked Witch of NY came out to introduce The 42nd President. Her screech was full of Unilateral, Pre-emptive, Worst Economy since Clinton, recession, job loss, universal health care. It fell as flat as her sunken chest. What is it about Old Lesbians being Soooooo angry, arent they supposed to be gay?? Then she introduced BJ W/O saying HUSBAND or him saying WIFE, which brought America right back to their complete dysfunctional arrangement. Weird.
Then came on the Greatest Impeached Democrat President of all time, BJ clinton. On and on he went about all the things that Yaaaawn is going to do because he was on a little boat in Viet Nam for 4 months then fought for North Vietnam for 4 years. The final Captain of the Boat line was so predictable that BJ could not have written that cliche. Yeah, Blood & Guts Kerry, heck W spilled more blood in his fighter jet than Yaaaawn did with 3 Purple Hearts. BJ was real long on what a great world this will be if only they are back in power but very short on specifics or how. How hard is it to give a speech when your words have NO meaning? He did say that strength and wisdom are not exclusive, which means that Kerry will return to negotiating with Yasser and every other terrorist on the planet begging them for Peace. He was very insulting to Our Allies such as Britain, Australia, Pakistan, Poland, and the other 25+ countries that see the value of our war. How can a Party endanger our alliance and our troops for votes??
Why does the Minority Party hate W so much? It is simple really, he stands for everything they resent. He loves the Lord Jesus Christ, and that is unthinkable to an Atheistic Party that worships the Sacrifice of the Unborn to their Centralized Gummit. He loves America and its gift of Freedom to all peoples and individual destiny. He is the opposite from the party that will tell you what you will receive from the trough and when, what and how much. Finally, he loves the military which represents strength, safety and domination of the World. How can they not hate W with every fibre of their being if he loves God, Family and Country. Add to that and the fact that they are out of power and you have a rabid hatred. We are witnessing the screech on their way to the Ash Heap of History.
So they are going to peddle their lies that this economy is NOT the fastest growing economy in the World next to Iraq. They are still trying to peddle the lie that there was NO connection between Al Queda and Saddam even though two commissions have verified it and that Wilson was lying. These people continue building their house on ice and when our Convention comes around these lies will be melted under the heat lamp of Truth.
Pray for W and The Truth
Picture I.D. should be used on every voter, and if you aren't on the voter registration list, you don't vote!
Verify citizenship, and precinct or voting district.
It ain't racist or harassment to ask anyone to prove they have the right to vote at a polling place.
Every legal vote should be counted, every illegal vote should be prosecuted!
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