Posted on 07/23/2004 9:15:08 PM PDT by ckilmer
EXO WORLDS
First Contact Within 20 Years: Shostak
Will the 20s see ET roar onto center stage Mountain View CA (SPX) Jul 22, 2004 If Intelligent life exists elsewhere in our galaxy, advances in computer processing power and radio telescope technology will ensure we detect their transmissions within two decades. That's the bold prediction from a leading light at the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence Institute in Mountain View, California. Seth Shostak, the SETI Institute's senior astronomer, based his prediction on accepted assumptions about the likelihood of alien civilisations existing, combined with projected increases in computing power.
Shostak, whose calculations will be published in a forthcoming edition of the space science journal Acta Astronautica, first estimated the number of alien civilisations in our galaxy that might currently be broadcasting radio signals.
For this he used a formula created in 1961 by astronomer Frank Drake which factors in aspects such the number of stars with planets, how many of those planets might be expected to have life, and so on. Shostak came up with an estimate of between 10,000 and 1 million radio transmitters in the galaxy.
To find them will involve observing and inspecting radio emissions from most of the galaxy's 100 billion stars. The time necessary for this formidable task can be estimated from the capabilities of planned radio telescopes- such as SETI's 1-hectare Allen Telescope Array and the internationally run Square Kilometre Array- and expected increases in the power of the microchips that sift through radio signals from space.
Shostak assumed that computer processing power will continue to double every 18 months until 2015- as it has done for the past 40 years. From then on, he assumes a more conservative doubling time of 36 months as transistors get too small to scale down as easily as they have till now.
Within a generation, radio emissions from enough stars will be observed and analysed to find the first alien civilisation, Shostak estimates. But because they will probably be between 200 and 1000 light years away, sending a radio message back will take centuries.
Paul Shuch, executive director of the SETI League, a separate organisation in New Jersey, says Shostak's prediction ignores one important factor. "It is altogether reasonable to project the development of human technology, based upon past trends and planned investments," he says.
"But predicting the date, the decade or even the century of contact is another matter because the 'other end' of the communications link is completely out of our hands. It would be nice to think we know something about the existence, distribution, technology and motivation of our potential communications partners in space, but in fact, we don't."
Shostak admits that there are myriad uncertainties surrounding his prediction, but he defends the basis on which he made it. "I have made this prediction using the assumptions adopted by the SETI research community itself."
I bet 2.9 million of them are shopping channels.
Good post!
What do we need to do to join the SETI search, and what does it entail once we are equipped, joined and linked up.
And RadioAstronomer - how many have currently joined the 'net' to link for the search, or what ever you all it?
Note - I only have dialup.
What is gravity? (no fancy answers please)
I think we need to figure that out so we can go into space. So, (while I don't want to open an argument I had previously), I don't think we will ever get anyplace much with rocket propulsion, and we need to figure out some other mode.
Southack, you gave a good, simple, logical explanation as to why gravity is faster than light.
I have made a similar simple explanation of why time travel is impossible - where would you stand? As we are always moving, and moving in relation to everything else, being in a different time demands being in a different place.
So, if we wanted to go back in time we would have to back up the earth on its rotation, back it up on it's orbit around the sun, back up the solar system in its rotation, and back up the milky way in its rotation, and back up the galaxy in its movement through the universe.
Somehow I don't think this is possible.
In 1960, Drake organizes the first SETI conference, and came up with the now-famous Drake equation: N=N*fp ne fl fi fc fL
[where N is the number of stars in the Milky Way galaxy; fp is the fraction with planets; ne is the number of planets per star capable of supporting life; fl is the fraction of planets where life evolves; fi is the fraction where intelligent life evolves; and fc is the fraction that communicates; and fL is the fraction of the planet's life during which the communicating civilizations live.]This serious-looking equation gave SETI a serious footing as a legitimate intellectual inquiry. The problem, of course, is that none of the terms can be known, and most cannot even be estimated. The only way to work the equation is to fill in with guesses. And guesses-just so we're clear-are merely expressions of prejudice.
Nor can there be "informed guesses." If you need to state how many planets with life choose to communicate, there is simply no way to make an informed guess. It's simply prejudice.
As a result, the Drake equation can have any value from "billions and billions" to zero. An expression that can mean anything means nothing. Speaking precisely, the Drake equation is literally meaningless, and has nothing to do with science. I take the hard view that science involves the creation of testable hypotheses. The Drake equation cannot be tested and therefore SETI is not science. SETI is unquestionably a religion.
45 - "The Earth is "falling" around the Sun just like a satellite (including the Moon) is falling around the Earth."
Good simple explanation. Now why? What causes the thing to fall?
All the simple gravity explanations I remember they seem to use 'centrifical force' and a rope, and a bucket (or whatever), and it makes no sense to me.
Pong. (Delayed response. You should learn to expect that kind of thing.)
75 - "(tell me scientists don't have a sense of humor) "
I think that's a 'relative' sense of humor. :)
When people aren't nice to me, I tell them a joke (as pun-ishment) HA!
Note, You are nice, and I am not trying to pun-ish you, just to demon-strate.
Oh, the pun of it.
We just went over 50,000 hours of computing time and 2178 units completed! Sitll no little green men on the screen! ;-)
I tried BOINC, but after a couple units it said I needed an upgrade that wasn't available, so I went back to the 3.08 version.
Once you're one your way, click here to Join the 'Freepers' team.
The software will still work even if you only have dial-up, but it's really best to have a broadband connection...(hint, hint). Every time you complete a unit, it will contact the server with the updates you have to send. Enjoy!
I kind of doubt there is any intelligent life out there -- the odds are against it
We don't know. Our level of science has several potential answers/suggestions, the two most prominent being Newton's and Einstein's.
Newton says that Gravity is a Force. Einstein says that Gravity is a geometry.
5 Legislative Days Left Until The AWB Expires
I installed BOINC on my work computer this week. I still have been able to download any information for it to work on. Any suggestions?
BTW, been running between 3 and 6 boxes for several years. I've got 3200+ work units. NEat project.
Hi FRiend. How're you doing these days?
Aye cap'n, tis true.
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