First Contact Within 20 Years: Shostak

Space Daily ^ | Mountain View CA (SPX) Jul 22, 2004

[ckilmer]

EXO WORLDS

First Contact Within 20 Years: Shostak

Will the 20s see ET roar onto center stage Mountain View CA (SPX) Jul 22, 2004 If Intelligent life exists elsewhere in our galaxy, advances in computer processing power and radio telescope technology will ensure we detect their transmissions within two decades. That's the bold prediction from a leading light at the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence Institute in Mountain View, California. Seth Shostak, the SETI Institute's senior astronomer, based his prediction on accepted assumptions about the likelihood of alien civilisations existing, combined with projected increases in computing power.

Shostak, whose calculations will be published in a forthcoming edition of the space science journal Acta Astronautica, first estimated the number of alien civilisations in our galaxy that might currently be broadcasting radio signals.

For this he used a formula created in 1961 by astronomer Frank Drake which factors in aspects such the number of stars with planets, how many of those planets might be expected to have life, and so on. Shostak came up with an estimate of between 10,000 and 1 million radio transmitters in the galaxy.

To find them will involve observing and inspecting radio emissions from most of the galaxy's 100 billion stars. The time necessary for this formidable task can be estimated from the capabilities of planned radio telescopes- such as SETI's 1-hectare Allen Telescope Array and the internationally run Square Kilometre Array- and expected increases in the power of the microchips that sift through radio signals from space.

Shostak assumed that computer processing power will continue to double every 18 months until 2015- as it has done for the past 40 years. From then on, he assumes a more conservative doubling time of 36 months as transistors get too small to scale down as easily as they have till now.

Within a generation, radio emissions from enough stars will be observed and analysed to find the first alien civilisation, Shostak estimates. But because they will probably be between 200 and 1000 light years away, sending a radio message back will take centuries.

Paul Shuch, executive director of the SETI League, a separate organisation in New Jersey, says Shostak's prediction ignores one important factor. "It is altogether reasonable to project the development of human technology, based upon past trends and planned investments," he says.

"But predicting the date, the decade or even the century of contact is another matter because the 'other end' of the communications link is completely out of our hands. It would be nice to think we know something about the existence, distribution, technology and motivation of our potential communications partners in space, but in fact, we don't."

Shostak admits that there are myriad uncertainties surrounding his prediction, but he defends the basis on which he made it. "I have made this prediction using the assumptions adopted by the SETI research community itself."

[GeronL]

Thanks for clearing that up. =o)

[RadioAstronomer]

Yup. Coast to Coast is on now. I am listening to Linda Moulton Howe. :-)

[Southack]

"As far as the tilt of our equatorial plane versus the glalactic plane, it was the initial plane of the accretion disk of the early formation of the solar system."

Yes, but for the plane of the accretion disk, and later our planets, to be *flat* presents a problem for GR's limit of nothing being able to exceed Light.

After all, it takes light less time to reach the inner circle of the accretion disk than to the outer rim of the disk. If Gravity was as slow as light, then that time lapse over that distance would mean first a curved accretion disk and then later the layered orbital planes of the revolving planets around the Sun...if the Sun was moving relative to where it was located 5 minutes ago, anyway.

5 Legislative Days Left Until The AWB Expires

[RadioAstronomer]

Take a really good look at those links. They may be able to clear up some of your misconceptions.

[RightWhale]

I luv this stuff. Hoagland lives out on a limb, but he is exceedingly bright. He was darned good during the Apollo landings.

[RadioAstronomer]

I am listening right now as well :-)

[RightWhale]

If they admit what we found the game is at an end.

New game. :)

[RightWhale]

Brookings: we can't handle the truth

Art Bell: we can individually handle the truth, but as a whole society will not handle the truth.

[RadioAstronomer]

I heard that too. :-)

He is now talking about JPL. Well. I worked at JPL. :-)

[mikegi]

I luv this stuff. Hoagland lives out on a limb, but he is exceedingly bright. He was darned good during the Apollo landings.

Isn't Hoagland the "face on Mars" kook?

[RadioAstronomer]

Yuppers. :-)

[RadioAstronomer]

But still fun to listen too. :-)

[wideminded]

And one other question: Out of the whole radio spectrum, how do you know where to look?

[dread78645]

First contact will not occur until 1947, sometime around July. Scoop! Scoop!

Mogul! Mogul!

[RadioAstronomer]

Excellent question.

There are two real sources of noise that limits the radio astronomer's ability to search for very weak signals. 1) The Galactic noise halo interferes with us below 1GHz and noise due to earth's atmosphere interferes with us above 10GHz. This pretty much keeps all SETI searches (at least radio ones) between 1 and 10Ghz. Inside these two limits, the noise is around the 2.7K background from 1.4 to 7GHz. This is why most of the SETI searches are around the frequencies that the OH (hydroxyl) and H (hydrogen) molecules masers emit. This is the so-called water hole. OH H (tell me scientists don't have a sense of humor)

[dread78645]

Unless you count Superman arriving in 1938 and Cornelius and Zira time-travelling backwards to 1971.

Hang around til 2019 for Roy and Pris.

"I've seen things you people wouldn't believe.
Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion.
I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhauser gate.
All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain.
Time to die. "

[RadioAstronomer]

Loved "Blade Runner" :-)

[atomic conspiracy]

What would be the point of making such a prediction?

Shostak is trying to drum up interest and, I suppose, to highlight some of the reasons that 40 years of negative results should not discourage us. To address your usual concerns, RW, the discovery of ETs would make hash of the various space treaties (how could the UN claim collective ownership of the universe if part of it already belongs to someone else?). It would open the door to private property in space. We might even argue that the reasonable possibility of ETs has alone already invalidated some of the treaties.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Oh, wow. I was invited to this dinner. Too bad I didn't go.

[BlackbirdSST]

41,898, as of this morning! What is the process for joining groups? If you don't mind my asking. I'll go check out the new Processor, BOINC! Blackbird.