FIGHT'S ON FOR NO MAN'S LAND

The New York Post ^ | 07/18/2004 | Deborah Orin

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

In the 17 battleground states now at the heart of the 2004 election, the politicking is so intense that it already feels like October - and the lines are hardening.

~snip~

The 17 battleground states are the ones both sides agree are up for grabs - but it's not because there are lots of undecided voters.

"There's probably just 3, 4, maybe 5 points that could be gotten in these states - but that's the whole election," says a senior Kerry strategist.

They're the states that were closest in 2000 - won by Bush or Al Gore by 6 percent or less - in some cases much less.

Just about everyone knows that Bush won Florida by a mere 537 votes. But it wasn't the only squeaker. Al Gore won New Mexico by just 366 votes, Wisconsin by 5,708 and Oregon by 6,765.

The battleground states have a total of 180 electoral votes - more than enough to decide whether Kerry or Bush gets the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

The eight battleground states that Bush won in 2000 account for 88 electoral votes. The nine won by Gore tally 92 electoral votes. Most, but not all, are in America's heartland.

~snip~

In Arizona, Democrats were hopeful over the growing number of Latinos - but the state is doing better economically and Bush now has a double-digit lead.

In Florida, aides believe Bush is in better shape than polls show, in part because of Jewish voters. The Kerry-Edwards ticket lacks that special appeal, and Jewish leaders say the president, because of the Iraq war and his pro-Israel stance, could draw over 30 percent of the Jewish vote compared to 19 percent in 2000.

In Democratic but socially conservative West Virginia, Bush's lead seems to be solidifying as his campaign focuses on values - Bush-hating Sen. Robert Byrd was one of just three Senate Democrats to cast a procedural vote to ban gay marriage last week.

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

I don't know what the Post's sources are, but I haven't seen anything suggesting that WV is trending Bush. I do think he'll ultimately take it though. Interesting article about the battleground states.

[freedom44]

Good article, but i think the Cuban-American vote will have a much stronger impact than the Jewish vote in Florida. 30% of the Jewish vote is not much compared to 75% of the Cuban vote, of which, far outnumber Jews in Florida.

[California Patriot]

This election comes down to Ohio, Florida,
New Hampshire, New Mexico, Wisconsin, and
Oregon. Three light-red states and three
light-blue states. Missouri and West Virginia
are Bush's. Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania,
and for God's sake New Jersey all belong to Frog.

And forget any poll with Nader. He will get fewer
votes than in 2000, and the Dems, one way or another,
may keep (or knock) him off the ballot in nearly
every state. They're good at such games, and will
stop at nothing.

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

I agree with you, but I think Pennsylvania is also in play. If the election were held today, it'd be all about Florida again. Ohio would go Bush. Oregon, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania Kerry. New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Florida are true tossups. All either candidate would need is Florida to take the whole ball of wax.

Things can and will change as the economy improves along with Bush's approval rating.

[thoughtomator]

I feel so disenfranchised...

[California Patriot]

Don't. The nationwide popular vote will be close, and in that, every American counts equally.

[California Patriot]

It is even possible that the states in each column could be precisely the same as last time.

I would say we'd lose Ohio right now, but win Florida. We
absolutely need Ohio in November, just as we need Florida.
New Hampshire we can afford to lose, and probably will.

New Mexico is probably our best prospect among the Gore states. The closeness of Oregon and Wisconsin (and Minnesota) in 2000 was deceptive due to Nader. But if the liberals aren't able to keep gay marriage off the Oregon ballot, that state is in play for us. Pundit Larry Sabato said recently that Wisconsin is our best blue-state prospect, and proportionately, it was indeed closer than Oregon in 2000.

[California Patriot]

I do agree with you that of the large blue states,
Pennsylvania is the one most worth watching.

[combat_boots]

I did, too, until this election. Any man supported by Communists and Athiests formally, i.e., Kerry, must be stopped. Call and write letters. Send e-mail. Protest. Vote. Lowering your morale is part of the strategy.

[jocon307]

I hope that Bush will win New Jersey. We got slammed by 9/11 and we are knee deep in terrorists here, I have no doubt there are many still about. McGreevy is self-destructing so badly it isn't even funny, but it may prove a God send to Schundler.

[section9]

One of the things that always killed me about Florida was the extreme liberalism of the Jewish population in this state. However, that has begun to turn, and Bush's stance on Israel is the one thing that has helped him the most.

Most Jews may dislike Bush, but they know that he is a Zionist. He will stand with Israel come what may.

As to the percentages; they matter. As we are aware, any vote is precious here. This isn't California. The Cubans will come out for Bush again, I am sure (pinging Luis for his take). However, what will really make the difference will be Jews. There's no Lieberman this time.

We went into recount because 9,000 Republicans stayed home in Broward County. This time, under the 72-hour plan, we'll get most of them out. But if we can cut into the Democratic majority among Jews, then we take this state with room to spare.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[greyfoxx39]

New Mexico is probably our best prospect among the Gore states

Don't count on New Mexico. "King" Bill Richardson will see that there are enough Kerry votes "found" to put us in the dem column. Nearly every day there are new headlines in the left-biased Albuquerque Journal regarding Richardson's shady deals. He learned well from the Clintonistas.

[Clintonfatigued]

Good article. It could have used more info. Other states worth looking at are Iowa (Gore by 4,144 votes), New Hampshire (Bush by 7,211 votes), Nevada, Arkansas, and Missouri. Also, Gore's margin in Pennsylvania was smaller than is generally remembered.

[Clintonfatigued]

Good point. But the only reason that New Mexico went for Gore in the first place is that a blizzard hit the southwestern portion of the state, known as Little Texas. Bush was very strong in that region, but the severe weather depressed turnout. Bill Richardson can't control the weather, can he?

[greyfoxx39]

Wellll.....if shenanigans would affect the weather, Richardson would certainly try!

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

Good article. It could have used more info. Other states worth looking at are Iowa (Gore by 4,144 votes), New Hampshire (Bush by 7,211 votes), Nevada, Arkansas, and Missouri. Also, Gore's margin in Pennsylvania was smaller than is generally remembered.

I have a feeling the article doesn't include a graphic that is probably in the print edition. Just a sneaking suspicion knowing how the Post operates.