I agree with you, but I think Pennsylvania is also in play. If the election were held today, it'd be all about Florida again. Ohio would go Bush. Oregon, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania Kerry. New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Florida are true tossups. All either candidate would need is Florida to take the whole ball of wax.
Things can and will change as the economy improves along with Bush's approval rating.
It is even possible that the states in each column could be precisely the same as last time.
I would say we'd lose Ohio right now, but win Florida. We
absolutely need Ohio in November, just as we need Florida.
New Hampshire we can afford to lose, and probably will.
New Mexico is probably our best prospect among the Gore states. The closeness of Oregon and Wisconsin (and Minnesota) in 2000 was deceptive due to Nader. But if the liberals aren't able to keep gay marriage off the Oregon ballot, that state is in play for us. Pundit Larry Sabato said recently that Wisconsin is our best blue-state prospect, and proportionately, it was indeed closer than Oregon in 2000.
I do agree with you that of the large blue states,
Pennsylvania is the one most worth watching.