It is even possible that the states in each column could be precisely the same as last time.
I would say we'd lose Ohio right now, but win Florida. We
absolutely need Ohio in November, just as we need Florida.
New Hampshire we can afford to lose, and probably will.
New Mexico is probably our best prospect among the Gore states. The closeness of Oregon and Wisconsin (and Minnesota) in 2000 was deceptive due to Nader. But if the liberals aren't able to keep gay marriage off the Oregon ballot, that state is in play for us. Pundit Larry Sabato said recently that Wisconsin is our best blue-state prospect, and proportionately, it was indeed closer than Oregon in 2000.
Don't count on New Mexico. "King" Bill Richardson will see that there are enough Kerry votes "found" to put us in the dem column. Nearly every day there are new headlines in the left-biased Albuquerque Journal regarding Richardson's shady deals. He learned well from the Clintonistas.