SC Ping
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Posted on 07/02/2004 10:09:42 AM PDT by republicanwizard
New SC Poll Shows DeMint Leading
First post run-off poll has DeMint at 50%; Presidential race will be a drag on Tenenbaum
(The following is an excerpted press release from the National Republican Senatorial Committee this morning)
Washington, D.C. – Congressman Jim DeMint’s strong and impressive victory in last Tuesday’s Republican run-off in South Carolina has him well positioned as the general election heads into high gear. A poll conducted this week shows him holding a firm lead over Democratic challenger Inez Tenenbaum – 50% to 43%.
...The poll shows that DeMint’s name ID equals that of Tenenbaum’s, while overall his image among South Carolina voters is more favorable. Of the voters who have already formed opinions of both candidates, DeMint’s lead increases to 13 points – 52% to 39%.
Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies (POS), the pollster who conducted the survey wrote that, “Jim DeMint has used a strong run-off victory as a springboard to vault past Inez Tenenbaum and into the lead in the South Carolina Senate race.”
Even more troubling for Tenenbaum and Democrats, both in South Carolina and nationally, is the drag that Democratic presidential nominee, John Kerry, will be on her campaign in the rock solid Republican state. South Carolina voters have a more unfavorable than favorable opinion of Kerry, with 40% favorable to 45% unfavorable. In sharp contrast, President Bush carries a hefty 61% favorable to 36% unfavorable.
In a head-to-head match-up, South Carolinians are solidly backing President Bush over Kerry – 55% to 40%....
About 50% of Indians are Australoid-Negroid by race, 35% Caucasoid, and 15% Mongoloid in their overall genetic composition. Majority of Indians are darker in their skin complexion, with wider noses, shorter heights, etc. The Australoid-Dravidoid racial element dominates among the lower caste Indians, South Indians, Eastern and Central Indians, etc. The Caucasoid racial element dominates in Northwest Indians and higher caste Indians. The Mongoloid racial element dominates in Northeast Indians and border regions with China.
Good to see DeMint up.
I am voting for Herman Cain. Only way Ill vote for Isakson is in the General Election
My understanding has long been that South Asians (Indians, Pakistanis, Sri Lankans, Bangladeshis, etc.) were considered to form a separate race from Caucasians or whites (from Europe, Western Asia and Northern Africa), Negroids or blacks (from sub-Saharan Africa, Australia and Melanesia), Orientals or Mongoloids (from Eastern and Southeastern Asia and Micronesia), and Amerindians (from North and South America and Polynesia). Of course, that comes from the old-fashioned notion that human beings can be divided into 5 races or colors, and that the colors are "brown" (South Asians), "white" (Caucasians), "black" (Negroids), "yellow" (Orientals) and "red" (Amerindians). Nowadays, of course, some people claim that there are dozens of "races." Frankly, I think any complete scientific study of genetic traits would result in the conclusion that there is one race, the Human Race, and that our physical differences are more cosmetic than anything else.
So I guess that's my long-winded explanation for why a fair-skinned Asian Indian like Bobby Jindal is not considered "Caucasian," at least not in Northeast Louisiana.
"I am voting for Herman Cain. Only way Ill vote for Isakson is in the General Election"
Jindal only lost by 4% or so but it was statewide except for 11 parishes.... Take a look at the following two parish by parish maps... The first is the jungle primary which he won many of the parishes. The second is the runoff against Blanco in which he needed the help of the white democrat voters to win and he never got it.... They stayed home with Blanco and the democrat party....
http://69.2.40.145/elections2003/images/10042003/Governor_-Statewide-_155213.jpg
http://69.2.40.145/elections2003/images/11152003/Governor_-Statewide-_004945.jpg
ah, the neverending debate.
That's interetsting...Blanco did well in Evangeline.
No, I don't live there, but I've known enough racist in my lifetime, that to some, anybody who isn't as white as the snow is black to them.
I hate to spit on her grave, and she was a good woman at heart (in spite of being a hardcore D) but my grandmother once (many years before she died)refered to someone from Hawaii as a 'N!@@er', wasn't white enough for her. That's how some of these people think.
"Bowles is riding a name ID advantage now and that's it."
Indeed. He's also always significantly under 50%, and most polls have him at 45%, the same number he got last time he ran.
"McCollum had a great House career, but he left his seat-for-life in Orlando to chuck away a Republican senate seat. He is a loser, and unfortunately could not win a November election. "
I wouldn't go that far. He's got high name ID and high positives, so I wouldn't say he's hopeless, but he's certainly not the nominee of choice. We really need Martinez in this one.
"If Coburn is the nominee (anyone else would put the seat in serious jeopardy),"
Indeed. I'm not worried about that though, he'll crush his primary opponents.
"I'd go so far as to say Coburn will win in every Congressional seat in the state. Remember, Coburn held Carson's seat before he did, and for longer."
Exactly. The thing is, he doesn't have to. If he can just break even in Carson's, even lose it by a little, he'll crush him statewide.
"The path of least resistance here is to give Coburn the nod and all of a sudden, the seat will fall out of play"
It's as out of play for the dems as Georgia is IMHO, at least as long as it's Coburn, and I think he's a cinch for the nod.
"(though everyone in the media will hype it up), unless an independent joins the race a la governor's race 2002."
Won't happen. Even if they did, I don't think it'll matter. Largent didn't think he could lose (neither did I, frankly) and ran his campaign accordingly, and he also lost by only 4000 votes. I hope he comes back in 2006 and destroys him next time around.
"If Nethercutt shores up his King-Shonomish-other adjacent county numbers (he'll never win in King, I don't think, but he can get a boost),"
Slade Gorton got 45% in King during his loss in 2000. Nethercutt has to improve just a point or two on this, and he'll be looking good. Of course, Slade was the incumbent, but Murray's not popular, and Netercutt won't have the early Florida call fiasco nor people east of the mountains sitting on their hands like Slade did.
"jaws will drop when Nethercutt takes out his second high-profile Democrat. I have a hunch that Bush will run stronger in Washington than last time. "
He certainly will run better. He got 45+% last time, and that was with the bad Florida call which suppressed R turunout. I think it would have been more like 47% without it. The state party really has it's act in line this year too. He could carry the state, and even if he doesn't, the closer he gets, the more he helps Nethercutt.
"I think the governor of Illinois you're referring to is Jim Thompson, who was also incidentally on the 9/11 Commission. He may be just a little far out of the game, but he could make it tough for Obama if he jumped in. I'm not convinced quite yet about Rauschenberger, Oberweis, McKenna, or a few other names mentioned. "
I honestly can't see anybody but a statewide winner being able to win it for us at this point. Hope he does run.
"Any other Senate pickups this cycle are gravy."
True. I have a tiny bit of hope for Wisconson, California and Arkansas, but they are gonna take an act of God. Wisconson maybe less then others.
Oh, if by some random chance Bill Jones wins, he should start kissing Governor Arnold's feet, because he'll be the only reason it was possible.
The latest SurveyUSA in Oklahoma:
U.S. Senate, OK GOP Primary
6/28/2004
Coburn 38%
Humphreys 34%
Anthony 16%
Other/Undecided 11%
Data Collected 6/25/04 - 6/27/04
Geography State of Oklahoma
Sample Population 408 Certain GOP Voters
Margin of Error 5.0%
Truly frightening. Coburn would win the seat easily. The others would not be as strong. No question about it, Coburn is by far the best candidate.
In Florida, McCollum could only win statewide if the Democrats nominated a weak candidate. I don't think they'll have a strong candidate, but they won't have a weak one. Martinez wouldn't necessarily win a November smackdown, but he'd do quite well, and much better than McCollum.
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I'm just curious. You seem to really carry this "somebody is a racist" thing to heart.
How old are you?
Where do you live?
What race are you?
I'm 46, raised in Mississippi, lived all over the world and now live in Nashville. I have two daughters by an ex-wife who is Lebanese Maronite from Brasil and two sons with a local Nashville gal. I am the guy on my homepage btw...I pinged a few that know that to be true off the keyboard.
I'm a white male.
The reason I ask is that on this forum, there are folks who really beat this drum but few of them are Southern and have much experience with Jim Crow. I grew up in the middle of it and watched it's death as a teenager and was raised as a liberal on civil rights issues yet most of the racists I see today are not white yet the very few white ones seem to be all anyone talks about and some folks toss the race card (mostly about peckertwoods) around lightly. I often suspect the school systems for Gen X and Y have sensitized them (public and private) as well as churches and advanced academia and the modern "culture". This need to point out racism at every turn is simply foreign to me. I grew up with the real thing and one of my grandmas used the N-word but I loved her to her grave and think nothing less of her. She was a product of her time and I think there exist very few folks who have never used that word anyhow.
I'm not flaming, just trying to understand what prompts your earnestness.
Regards.
He hasn't replied to you.
I am standing by. :)
I'm really just curious what provokes some conservatives to accuse out of hand many Louisianans as racist.
Lots of FReepers hurl that smear with abandon and seem to enjoy doing so.
I have hunches why but I'd like for them to explain it. I think my threshold for racial indignation is a bit higher.
I have also promised myself to be nice after reviewing my hospital threads and seeing how many folks were so kind. I don't want to be tacky with anyone who was nice.
I'm sick to death and less tolerant than you
regarding the cavalier manner in which "some
folks" here always seem to bring race into every issue.
I'm curious also to see his reply to you.
I back tracked your conversation and I am
left puzzled.
Unfortunately, to illustrate one reason why, I'm going to resort to another poll, released just before that one:
Among Voters With An Opinion Of Both Candidates (39% of the sample):
Schaffer 44%
Coors 34
Undec. 21
So you can see that Coors is probably not going to walk away with a victory just thanks to the initial polling. Schaffer kicked Coors' a$$ in the debates, and in the end his campaign experience will trump Coors' big money. Schaffer also has tons of ammo with which to hammer Coors in a GOP primary--the latter's groups have been donating to liberal democrats and backing tax-hike ballot initiatives for things like stadiums, etc, for years. That won't play well with the base that votes in primaries.
Coors seems good on paper, and he's a self-funder--something the party leadership wants. But he's such a lightweight when it comes down to politics. An experienced campaigner like Salazar will cut out his heart and devour it, giving himself a blood moustache in the process. I'm betting that Shaffer will easily do the job first and win by ten points.
Remember, primaries are notoriously difficult to poll, because you never know who's going to show up and vote. Schaffer will work hard to drive turnout in the old 4th CD, where he out-polls Coors by 27 points. Coors, on the other hand, may or may not benefit from a contested primary going on in the western half of the state for McInnis' district, the current 3rd.
Schaffer's chances in the general are not much better than Coors', but both basically poll the same right now against Salazar--Coors slightly better than Schaffer (again, for now).
Salazar 47%
Coors 45%
Salazar 49%
Schaffer 43%
If Salazar makes some big mistakes, then I'd say there's a chance. Otherwise, this seat probably goes Democrat, regardless of who is nominated.
Well, I'd point to the level of support David Duke got. Then again, I wonder what it would look like if he ran in New York?
He'd do well in Bensonhurst..lol
"it seems like we now have two definite pick-ups in November. SC and GA"
Not yet. Jim DeMint is benefitting from the publicity and momentum of his big primary victory. From my previous posts, it's clear that I underestimated those factors. DeMint benefits not only from his state's conservative, Republican leanings, but from his youth. Clearly, he can build up more seniority than Tennenbaum. Still, a single-didgit lead is not a secure lead, and there is still six months to the election. Tennenbaum is clearly the better campaigner of the two, and she has statewide name I.D. and generated little controversy. Also, don't forget, there have been more plant closings, and the outsourcing and trade issues will hurt free-trader DeMint. I still rate this race doubtful, though it's looking better now than it did a few months ago.
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