"Bowles is riding a name ID advantage now and that's it."
Indeed. He's also always significantly under 50%, and most polls have him at 45%, the same number he got last time he ran.
"McCollum had a great House career, but he left his seat-for-life in Orlando to chuck away a Republican senate seat. He is a loser, and unfortunately could not win a November election. "
I wouldn't go that far. He's got high name ID and high positives, so I wouldn't say he's hopeless, but he's certainly not the nominee of choice. We really need Martinez in this one.
"If Coburn is the nominee (anyone else would put the seat in serious jeopardy),"
Indeed. I'm not worried about that though, he'll crush his primary opponents.
"I'd go so far as to say Coburn will win in every Congressional seat in the state. Remember, Coburn held Carson's seat before he did, and for longer."
Exactly. The thing is, he doesn't have to. If he can just break even in Carson's, even lose it by a little, he'll crush him statewide.
"The path of least resistance here is to give Coburn the nod and all of a sudden, the seat will fall out of play"
It's as out of play for the dems as Georgia is IMHO, at least as long as it's Coburn, and I think he's a cinch for the nod.
"(though everyone in the media will hype it up), unless an independent joins the race a la governor's race 2002."
Won't happen. Even if they did, I don't think it'll matter. Largent didn't think he could lose (neither did I, frankly) and ran his campaign accordingly, and he also lost by only 4000 votes. I hope he comes back in 2006 and destroys him next time around.
"If Nethercutt shores up his King-Shonomish-other adjacent county numbers (he'll never win in King, I don't think, but he can get a boost),"
Slade Gorton got 45% in King during his loss in 2000. Nethercutt has to improve just a point or two on this, and he'll be looking good. Of course, Slade was the incumbent, but Murray's not popular, and Netercutt won't have the early Florida call fiasco nor people east of the mountains sitting on their hands like Slade did.
"jaws will drop when Nethercutt takes out his second high-profile Democrat. I have a hunch that Bush will run stronger in Washington than last time. "
He certainly will run better. He got 45+% last time, and that was with the bad Florida call which suppressed R turunout. I think it would have been more like 47% without it. The state party really has it's act in line this year too. He could carry the state, and even if he doesn't, the closer he gets, the more he helps Nethercutt.
"I think the governor of Illinois you're referring to is Jim Thompson, who was also incidentally on the 9/11 Commission. He may be just a little far out of the game, but he could make it tough for Obama if he jumped in. I'm not convinced quite yet about Rauschenberger, Oberweis, McKenna, or a few other names mentioned. "
I honestly can't see anybody but a statewide winner being able to win it for us at this point. Hope he does run.
"Any other Senate pickups this cycle are gravy."
True. I have a tiny bit of hope for Wisconson, California and Arkansas, but they are gonna take an act of God. Wisconson maybe less then others.
Oh, if by some random chance Bill Jones wins, he should start kissing Governor Arnold's feet, because he'll be the only reason it was possible.
The latest SurveyUSA in Oklahoma:
U.S. Senate, OK GOP Primary
6/28/2004
Coburn 38%
Humphreys 34%
Anthony 16%
Other/Undecided 11%
Data Collected 6/25/04 - 6/27/04
Geography State of Oklahoma
Sample Population 408 Certain GOP Voters
Margin of Error 5.0%
Truly frightening. Coburn would win the seat easily. The others would not be as strong. No question about it, Coburn is by far the best candidate.
In Florida, McCollum could only win statewide if the Democrats nominated a weak candidate. I don't think they'll have a strong candidate, but they won't have a weak one. Martinez wouldn't necessarily win a November smackdown, but he'd do quite well, and much better than McCollum.
"He got 45+% last time, and that was with the bad Florida call which suppressed R turunout. I think it would have been more like 47% without it."