Posted on 07/02/2004 10:09:42 AM PDT by republicanwizard
New SC Poll Shows DeMint Leading
First post run-off poll has DeMint at 50%; Presidential race will be a drag on Tenenbaum
(The following is an excerpted press release from the National Republican Senatorial Committee this morning)
Washington, D.C. – Congressman Jim DeMint’s strong and impressive victory in last Tuesday’s Republican run-off in South Carolina has him well positioned as the general election heads into high gear. A poll conducted this week shows him holding a firm lead over Democratic challenger Inez Tenenbaum – 50% to 43%.
...The poll shows that DeMint’s name ID equals that of Tenenbaum’s, while overall his image among South Carolina voters is more favorable. Of the voters who have already formed opinions of both candidates, DeMint’s lead increases to 13 points – 52% to 39%.
Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies (POS), the pollster who conducted the survey wrote that, “Jim DeMint has used a strong run-off victory as a springboard to vault past Inez Tenenbaum and into the lead in the South Carolina Senate race.”
Even more troubling for Tenenbaum and Democrats, both in South Carolina and nationally, is the drag that Democratic presidential nominee, John Kerry, will be on her campaign in the rock solid Republican state. South Carolina voters have a more unfavorable than favorable opinion of Kerry, with 40% favorable to 45% unfavorable. In sharp contrast, President Bush carries a hefty 61% favorable to 36% unfavorable.
In a head-to-head match-up, South Carolinians are solidly backing President Bush over Kerry – 55% to 40%....
To gain anything, we'll need to win at least two out of FL, SD, LA, NC. The maximum possible gain will be three.
Yes, and it was a great surprise when Nixon carried SC in 1968.
Although when Coolidge won the same 1000 votes in SC, the Democratic Senator said he didn't know "who cast them and who counted them."
Hey, hey, hey! Pennsylvania started voting Republican in 1860...
Well....geez...I wonder why.
If in 1860, why not now?
I can answer for the South. The South historically goes for the most socially conservative party...not to mention the anti-Reconstruction mood that existed down here until the parties sort of switched tracks starting after WWII.
In your defense, your demographics today are much different than in 1860 and Penn is largely held hostage by Philly, Pittsburh and the mill-mining towns.
Don't be too hard on Breaux. Next to Zell, he's the most conservative Democrat in the Senate, at least according to the ACU.
It's as close to fact as you can get. Certain R areas were noticeably less strong R, and, lo and behold, they were some of the, uhh, how should I put this nicely, 'Backwoods' areas. Jindal didn't get the 'Bubba' vote.
Most Lousianians are fine people, but they have a racist bunch in there somewhere. Remember David Duke? It wasn't that long ago.
Anyhow, Jidal is now running for Vitter's House seat (a completely safe seat, not only did he get upward of 60% of the vote in the district when he ran for governor, but he's breaking fundraising records.) He'll be a fine congressman, and maybe make another run for Governor in '07. After four years of Dem rule, and with a proven record, I think he'll overcome his handicaps and win the gold this time.
I think we need Vitter to win on November. He'll be helped by Bush, but it's gonna be a tough race. I think we are favored in the race, but if we don't get 51% in November, I think the seat leans D in December.
I agree that in the final analisys, Burr is the favorite. Bowles has a lot of baggage (it's called CLINTON), and Burr is a really strong campaigner.
I think we are favored in Florida only if Martinez is the nominee. The D's are slightly favored if it's McCollumn, and heavily favored if it's Byrd. I hope Florida freepers are paying attention to the dynamics of this race. I hope none of them throw their vote away on Byrd. He can't win the primary, and I seriously doubt he'd win the general anyway, and a vote for him is basically a vote for McCollum, who's a nice guy, but a loser.
Don't be lukewarm about Isakson. I like Cain too, but I'd be very satisfied with Isakson as well. He's moderate on exactly one issue: Abortion. Even at that, he gets an 81% from the right to life people. He's a tax payer superhero, and someone who really has built the modern Georgia Republican party. I've kept a close eye on this race. It's a really tough choice IMHO. Cain talks great, and I would like having a black senator to beat down all the race baters, but he doesn't have a proven record of actually getting things done politically, and on the other hand, Isakson's record on everything but abortion is great, and his abortion record isn't all that bad. I'd be very happy with either of these men. I'm not a Mac Collins fan, however, but he'd be OK if for some crazy reason he won.
I think you worry far too much about Colorado. Coors is going to be the nominee, and with is campaign just getting started a few months ago, he's already in the single digits with a man who's won statewide twice, and he's running in a state Bush will almost certainly win. I'd say it's a tossup at worst, leans R at best.
I am worried about Alaska, but the last poll I saw had Lisa up by a few, so I'm not that worried. We shouldn't be in this positioin though. Frank needs a good sock in the jaw for getting us here. He should have appointed Alaska's rep, and then his daughter could have won that seat in a Special Election easily with her dad's fundraising network and high name ID.
Lousiana is a basket case, agreed, but I don't think a Runoff is inevitable, and it's very possible for Vitter to ride Bush to the top in November. If he doesn't, well...I'd say the seat stays D.
Oaklahoma is in the bag if Coburn is the nominee. Geographically, it would be almost impossible for Carson to win. All Coburn has to do is make it close in the district he was a rep from for 3 terms, and he wins. Yet another state where the candidate will he helped by Bush, regardless of what else happens.
And, as a Washintonian, Netercutt is running an EXCELLENT race so far, and DC is STOKED about this race. He's had Elizabeth Dole, Bill Frist, John McCain, and GWB all raising money for him, (Bush got him $1 million a few weeks ago during his visit here), and he's a tough, smart campaigner. The polls are in the single digits, Murray below 50% in some of them, and when you poll only people who know who both of them are, it's a 50/50 race. I can't say for certain he will win, but it's a tossup.
Thune/Dashle will end up with somebody +1000 votes or less. Your guess is as good as mine as to who. Dashle did just step in it by going to Moore's film with McAulliff the like, hopefully, Thune will be able to use it against him.
Darrow and Jones can win, especially Darrow, but it would be more of a plesant surprise then anything I'd really hope for. If Jones wins, he should be kissing Governor Arnold's feet, because it will be because of him.
Oh, and Ill. isn't completely out of line if that one guy runs...can't remember his name...4 term governor. He's pretty old, I guess, but hey, if they can drag out Mondale, we can do the same thing. (Yah, yah, I know, Mondale lost, but that had nothing to do with him and everything to do with the Wellstone memorial)
Anyhow, yah, Senate analisys is fun :):):)!!!
There is no way we will lose all three of these. I'm guessing we will lose one of these, maybe two, but no way all three.
Ill still isn't out of the question if wazzzhisname runs, former governor, can't remember his name. He's won statewide a bunch of times. We are, however, most likely to lose this race.
I'd say we are favored in Colorado. Coors has the race in single digits within 3 months of being a candidate. It'll be tough, but I think we are slightly favored on this.
Alaska is also tough, but the last poll was favorable, and we have GWB on top of the ticket. Tossup at worst. It's also worthy of note that Knowles never got more then 49% of the vote in his races.
Thanks for the info..they're always making a big deal of her last state-wide victory...her popularity..do you have any info about that race..who she ran against..a nobody..or Elmer Fudd?..or a convicted poedophile?
You're wrong. Also, Coors will lose the primary, but that's ok because he would be a weaker candidate anyway.
The real battleground will be Florida, where I think Martinez will win, South Dakota, and North Carolina, which is going to be really, really close.
Edgar will not run in Ill.
That was quite a lot of Senate analysis. The only thing I can do is add MORE Senate analysis:
We both agree on NC. The race is still in a fairly early stage, and when it matters, Burr will win. Bowles is riding a name ID advantage now and that's it.
Mel Martinez is the only one who can win in Florida. Granted, this Betty Castor woman seems obscure to me but for some reason she's doing well for the Dems. McCollum had a great House career, but he left his seat-for-life in Orlando to chuck away a Republican senate seat. He is a loser, and unfortunately could not win a November election. Martinez is the one, and since I hear his numbers are going up, in my best Howard Cosell voice: "He--could--go--all--the--way."
Isakson--pass. I know there are some very fine divisions on Isaskon vs. Cain, so as a non-Georgian, I'll not wade into these waters any longer. My personal preference is Cain, but I will leave the decision to the voters of Georgia.
If Coors is the nominee, he'll have to worry about people not taking him seriously. Honestly, Bob Schaffer would make the better Senator (I think as far as principle and accomplishment go, I think we all think that), but Coors has the cash and name to win the seat. I don't hear much about the race, but he needs to set out a vision and fast. Everything I hear says Schaffer has the momentum, and that may well be, but he's a little too obscure to beat Salazar. Again, it's best left to the voters of the state to decide.
Alaska will go over 60% for Bush, easily. In a tight race, his coattails will likely drag Lisa across the finish line. Yet still, as you said, Frank Murkowski needs a slap in the face for giving us the nepotism plank.
Louisiana, well, if I were smart I'd say the runoff will go 51-49 for the Democrat (the way the last few have gone) but who knows. Vitter will easily get 1st place on November 2 but as Bobby Jindal learned, that doesn't equal victory. Vitter, if not winning outright with 50%+1, needs to finish a STRONG first place--as in, somewhere in the 40s. In that case, I'd be fairly convinced Vitter would win the runoff to follow. Anything less is a tossup.
If Coburn is the nominee (anyone else would put the seat in serious jeopardy), I'd go so far as to say Coburn will win in every Congressional seat in the state. Remember, Coburn held Carson's seat before he did, and for longer. The path of least resistance here is to give Coburn the nod and all of a sudden, the seat will fall out of play (though everyone in the media will hype it up), unless an independent joins the race a la governor's race 2002.
I am very interested to see what George Nethercutt can do. I think everyone must have been shocked out there on election night when Tom Foley lost. Patty bin Murray can be defeated, but it will take some heck of a campaign west of the Cascades. If Nethercutt shores up his King-Shonomish-other adjacent county numbers (he'll never win in King, I don't think, but he can get a boost), jaws will drop when Nethercutt takes out his second high-profile Democrat. I have a hunch that Bush will run stronger in Washington than last time.
As far as Thune--from what I heard of his last campaign, I think I ran a better one for Student Government in high school. He had no heart for the race. This time, if he's got a pair, he can take the rug out from under lil' Tommy.
I think the governor of Illinois you're referring to is Jim Thompson, who was also incidentally on the 9/11 Commission. He may be just a little far out of the game, but he could make it tough for Obama if he jumped in. I'm not convinced quite yet about Rauschenberger, Oberweis, McKenna, or a few other names mentioned.
Any other Senate pickups this cycle are gravy.
Is Tentenbaum the one with the big Tentens?
I have it straight for an former Schaffer employee (believe he worked in his office while he was in the House) that he doesn't have a prayer in the primary (No, not a bitter ex-aid, he still likes the guy), and if there is a single poll showing him beating Coors in the primary, I'd sure like to see it.
Sorry, given the polling info and the trends of the state, it would be foolish to call this anything but a tossup.
Great news - and glad to hear that President Bush is leading so nicely, too. If I'm not mistaken, this is a GOP poll, but it can't be that far off the mark. A 55%-40% lead for the Prez is natural, so De Mint likely is up.
This makes me happy.
"The Democrats have tried to take down Portman, same result."
It's still a hunch. There were other factors towards the end of the race that harmed Jindal. However, you are correct that he lost safe districts and oddly enough won unusual ones and that does give credence to your claim.
I would also point out that Jindal is a Caucazoid last time I looked....not to be a stickler on "race".
There is no doubt Louisiana is a contradiction in many ways. Do you live there?
But, but . . . didn't numerous FReepers tell us that Beasley was our only hope of beating Ms. Inez? Lawsy, I guess South Carolinians aren't as ignorant as some FReepers thought they were.
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