I have it straight for an former Schaffer employee (believe he worked in his office while he was in the House) that he doesn't have a prayer in the primary (No, not a bitter ex-aid, he still likes the guy), and if there is a single poll showing him beating Coors in the primary, I'd sure like to see it.
Sorry, given the polling info and the trends of the state, it would be foolish to call this anything but a tossup.
Unfortunately, to illustrate one reason why, I'm going to resort to another poll, released just before that one:
Among Voters With An Opinion Of Both Candidates (39% of the sample):
Schaffer 44%
Coors 34
Undec. 21
So you can see that Coors is probably not going to walk away with a victory just thanks to the initial polling. Schaffer kicked Coors' a$$ in the debates, and in the end his campaign experience will trump Coors' big money. Schaffer also has tons of ammo with which to hammer Coors in a GOP primary--the latter's groups have been donating to liberal democrats and backing tax-hike ballot initiatives for things like stadiums, etc, for years. That won't play well with the base that votes in primaries.
Coors seems good on paper, and he's a self-funder--something the party leadership wants. But he's such a lightweight when it comes down to politics. An experienced campaigner like Salazar will cut out his heart and devour it, giving himself a blood moustache in the process. I'm betting that Shaffer will easily do the job first and win by ten points.
Remember, primaries are notoriously difficult to poll, because you never know who's going to show up and vote. Schaffer will work hard to drive turnout in the old 4th CD, where he out-polls Coors by 27 points. Coors, on the other hand, may or may not benefit from a contested primary going on in the western half of the state for McInnis' district, the current 3rd.
Schaffer's chances in the general are not much better than Coors', but both basically poll the same right now against Salazar--Coors slightly better than Schaffer (again, for now).
Salazar 47%
Coors 45%
Salazar 49%
Schaffer 43%
If Salazar makes some big mistakes, then I'd say there's a chance. Otherwise, this seat probably goes Democrat, regardless of who is nominated.