Replies

Globe and Mail Guide to Election Night

CBC Canada Votes Main Page

CBC Candidates & Ridings

The opposition wants "....increase Canada's military spending, expand its military ranks to 80,000 from 60,000, withdraw from the Kyoto protocol, and work with the U.S. on anti-terror operations that include deporting individuals who threaten North American security." [from the WSJ]

Our sister site in Canada is covering this thoroughly:
http://216.93.166.91/recent.php

The consensus on the AndrewCoyne.com blog appears to be about 130 seats for the Conservatives, 100 for the Liberals, 55 for the Bloc and 22 for the NDP and 1 IND. Canada will probably end up with a Conservative minority government. I think though, the results are wide open since the polls show a tie between the two major parties. Which way it could go today is any one's guess. One can make a few safe predictions an hour before the polls open in the East: the Conservatives will sweep Western Canada, the Bloc will take Quebec and Ontario will split right down the middle. Its going to be interesting night and if its down to the wire, we could be in for a long night when the polls close at the end of the day.

Bump for later. What internet sites will give the early returns from Newfoundland and the Maritimes? Do you have any links?

My analysis of what to watch:

Canadian Election --- By the Hour

7:00 PM --- Polls close in the province of Newfoundland and Labrador
7:30 PM --- Polls close in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island
9:30 PM --- Polls close in Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta
10:00 PM --- Polls close in British Columbia

It Begins in the Maritimes --- Ridings to Watch in Atlantic Canada

Polls close in Atlantic Canada 2-2 1/2 hours before the rest of the country. Key races in Atlantic Canada may help predict the outcome of the election:

7:00 PM --- Newfoundland and Labrador
Total 2000 Ridings: 7 (5 Liberals, 2 Progressive Conservatives)
Total Current Ridings: 7 (4 Liberals, 3 Conservatives)
Total 2004 Ridings: 7
Election Prediction Project 2004 prediction: 5 Liberals, 2 Conservatives

Key question: Are the Conservatives strong enough to hold on to the following ridings?:

Bonavista-Exploits
Conservative incumbent Rex Barnes (then, a member of one of the two parties that merged to form the Conservative Party of Canada, the Progressive Conservative Party) squeaked by his Liberal party counterpart by 721 votes in a 2002 by-election. This seat was previously held by the Liberals since 1974. This will be one of the first tests of whether the Conservative Party has the same traction in Atlantic Canada as the former Progressive Conservative party.

Election Prediction Project predicts this riding will flip to the Liberals.

St. John's South
Conservative incumbent Loyola Hearn (also a former Progressive Conservative) took this riding in a 2000 by-election by a mere 356 votes over the NDP candidate. But St. John's South and its predecessor has generally voted Progressive Conservative for much of the past three decades. Will this trend continue with the Conservatives?

Election Prediction Project predicts the Tories will hold this riding.

Randon-Burin-St. George's
This is the closest thing to a Newfoundland swing riding currently held by the Liberals (but that's not saying much). Liberal incumbent Bill Matthews won this riding by 7,000 votes over an independent candidate in 2000. The Progressive Conservatives won the riding in 1984 and 1997. But the Liberals have won every other election since 1949. The Liberals will likely hold the seat, but if this riding flips to the Conservatives, it's going to be a very long night for the Liberals.

Election Prediction Project predicts this riding will flip to the Liberals.

7:30PM -- Prince Edward Island
Total 2000 & Current Ridings: 4 (4 Liberals)
Total 2004 Ridings: 4
Election Prediction Project 2004 prediction: 3 Liberals 3, 1 Too Close to Call

Key Question: Can the Conservatives pick up Cardigan?

Cardigan
Liberal incumbent Lawrence MacAulay defeated his Progressive Conservative opponent by a mere 276 votes in 2000. He had to resign his post as Solicitor General in 2002 due to an inquiry regarding allegations of conflicts of interests. Can the Conservatives retake this riding from a damaged politician? If they can't, it might be a long day for the Conservatives.

Election Prediction Project says the race is too close to call on their PEI provincial page.

A Conservative win in any other PEI riding would mean it will be a very long night for the Liberals.

7:30PM --- New Brunswick
Total 2000 Ridings: 10 (6 Liberals, 3 Progressive Conservatives, 1 NDP)
Total Current Ridings: 10 (7 Liberals, 2 Conservatives, 1 NDP)
Total 2004 Ridings: 10
Election Prediction Project 2004 prediction: 7 Liberals, 2 Conservatives, 1 NDP

Key Question: How will the Conservatives fare in traditional Red Tory districts?

Fundy
Liberal incumbent John Herron was elected as a Progressive Conservative in 2000. He didn't join the Conservative Party when the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative parties merged to form the Conservative Party. Instead, he sat as an independent and now is running as a Liberal. Will the residents of Fundy penalize Mr. Herron for running on the Liberal Line? Fundy and its predecessors voted solidly Conservative or Progressive Conservative in every election since 1917 except 1993.

Election Prediction Project predicts the Conservatives will pick up Fundy.

St. John
Progressive Conservative incumbent Elsie Wayne is retiring. Will the Conservatives be able to keep this seat, which has largely voted Progressive Conservative since 1968? It went Liberal in 1974 and 1980.

Election Prediction Project predicts the Liberals will pick up St. John.

Madawaska-Restigouche
This is a New Brunswick swing riding with a retiring Liberal incumbent. But it was won by the Progressive Conservatives in 1997. Can the Conservatives pick up this seat?

Election Prediction Project predicts the Liberals will retain Madawaska-Restigouche.

7:30PM --- Nova Scotia
Total 2000 Ridings 11 (4 Liberals, 4 Progressive Conservatives, 3 NDP)
Total Current Ridings: 11 (5 Liberals, 3 Conservatives, 3 NDP)
Total 2004 Ridings: 11
Election Prediction Project 2004 prediction: 4 Liberals, 4 NDP, 3 Conservatives

Key questions: How strong is the NDP? How will a Red Tory come-Liberal fare? Can the Conservatives hold where the Red Tories have won in the past?

Sydney-Victoria and Halifax West
Election Prediction Project says Liberal incumbent Mark Eyking is vulnerable, and may lose to the NDP. This seat was held by the NDP after the 1997 election. If the NDP retakes Sydney-Victoria, it may be a long night for the Liberals in urban Ontario, Manitoba and British Columbia, as close NDP-Liberal races fall to the NDP. If Halifax West also falls to the NDP, it will be a long night for the Liberals

Election Prediction Project predicts the NDP will pick up Sydney-Victoria, but the Liberals will retain Halifax West.

Kings-Hants
Incumbent Scott Brison was elected as a Progressive Conservative in 2000, but refused to join the new Conservative party and joined the Liberal caucus in 2003. Will the electorate of Kings-Hants make him pay? The Progressive Conservatives won every election in Kings-Hants from 1950-2000 except 1993. If the Conservatives win here, traditional Red Tory districts throughout Ontario may be safer than some believe.

Election Prediction Project predicts the Liberals will retain Kings-Hants.

Central Nova
Conservative incumbent Peter MacKay was elected as a Progressive Conservative in 2000, in part due to a promise that he would not negotiate a merger with the Canadian Alliance. He did so anyway, and joined the Conservatives when the parties merged in 2003. Will there be payback in Central Nova?

Election Prediction Project predicts the Conservatives will retain Central Nova.

As Quebec Turns --- What's Good for the Bloc is Bad for Liberals

9:30 PM --- Quebec
Total 2000 Ridings: 75 (38 Bloc Quebecois, 36 Liberals, 1 Progressive Conservative)
Total 2004 Ridings: 75
Election Prediction Project 2004 prediction: 52 Bloc Quebecois, 23 Liberals

Key Question: How low will the Liberals go?

By all indications, the Liberals are going to get crushed in Quebec. The important question is how badly? If the Liberals retain 10 or fewer seats, they will probably not win more seats than the Conservatives. If the Liberals retain more than 25 seats, they probably will win more seats than the Conservatives, and may win enough seats to enter into a permanent leftist majority government with the NDP.

Outremont
CBC says to keep an eye on the traditional Liberal Montreal stronghold of Outremont, where Paul Martin's Quebec Lieutenant, Jean Lapierre is running for election. Outremont has a large immigrant population -- only 44% of Outremont's residents speak French as a first language; 37% speak neither English nor French at home. The Liberals have won every election in Outremont since 1935 except 1988.

Election Prediction Project predicts the Bloc will win Outremont for the first time ever.

Ontario --- The Electoral Heartland
9:30 PM -- Ontario
Total 2000 Ridings: 103 (100 Liberals, 2 Canadian Alliance, 1 NDP)
Total 2004 Ridings: 106
Election Prediction Project 2004 prediction: 65 Liberals, 33 Conservatives, 8 NDP

Key Questions: How far have the Liberals fallen? How well will the Conservatives fare in the Exurban Toronto 905 Ridings? And have the Liberals sufficiently scared urban voters away from the NDP?

Approximately one-third of all Canadians live in Ontario. The Conservatives can't win the most seats nationwide without a strong showing here, particularly in 905 ridings like Mississagua-Streetsville and York-Simcoe. Similarly, Liberals can't win the most seats nationwide if they can't fight off NDP attacks in urban Toronto.

Ontario will likely be where the election is won. If the Conservatives take 50 or more ridings, they will likely win the most ridings nationwide. If the conservatives take fewer than 30 seats, they will be relegated to opposition party status once again.

Are Liberals Extinct in the Prairies?

9:30 PM -- Manitoba
Total 2000 Ridings: 14 (5 Liberals, 4 Canadian Alliance, 4 NDP, 1 Progressive Conservative)
Total Current Ridings: 14 (5 Conservatives, 5 Liberals, 4 NDP)
Total 2004 Ridings: 14
Election Prediction Project 2004 prediction: 7 Conservatives, 4 NDP, 3 Liberals

Key Question: As Eastern Canada meets Western Canada, will the Conservatives be able to build on traditional Canadian Alliance strongholds? And will the NDP surpass the Liberals in the traditional NDP Homeland?

Charlesworth-St. James & Kildonian-St. Paul
Election Prediction Project predicts the Conservatives will pick up these Winnepeg-area ridings from the Liberals. Can they pick up more?

9:30 PM -- Saskatchewan
Total 2000 Ridings: 14 (10 Canadian Alliance, 2 Liberals, 2 NDP)
Total Current Ridings: 14 (8 Conservatives, 2 Liberals, 2 NDP, 2 Independents)
Total 2004 Ridings: 14
Election Prediction Project 2004 prediction: 8 Conservatives, 5 NDP, 1 Liberal

Will the Conservatives lose the ridings of Saskatoon-Humboldt and Regina-Lumsch-Lake Centre to the NDP because former Conservative Alliance ultra-conservatives (by Canadian standards) Jim Pankiw and Larry Spencer were denied admission to the Conservative party, but are running as independents? The Election Prediction Project seems to think so. And will any Liberals be left standing in the province?

A Clean Sweep in Alberta?

9:30 PM -- Alberta
Total 2000 Ridings: 26 (23 Canadian Alliance, 2 Liberals, 1 Progressive Conservative)
Total Current Ridings: 26 (24 Conservatives, 2 Liberals)
Total 2004 Ridings: 28
Election Prediction Project 2004 prediction: 27 Conservatives, 1 Liberal

Liberal incumbent David Kilgour is running for reelection in Edmonton-Beaumont. The former Progressive Conservative ran and won as a liberal by fewer than 1,500 votes in 1997, and 4,717 votes in 2000. Liberal incumbent Anne McLellan won the predecessor to her Edmonton Centre seat by a mere 12 votes in 1993, 1,400 votes in 1997 and 733 votes in 2000. Will the Conservative tide be so strong in Alberta to boot these Liberals out of office?

Election Prediction Project predicts David Kilgour will be the only Liberal left standing in Alberta.

The Election --- And the Conservatives' Chances --- End in British Columbia

10:00 PM -- British Columbia
Total 2000 Ridings: 34 (27 Canadian Alliance, 5 Liberals, 2 NDP)
Total Current Ridings: 34 (26? Conservatives, 5 Liberals, 2 NDP, 1? Independent)
Total 2004 Ridings: 36
Election Prediction Project 2004 prediction: 23 Conservatives, 7 NDP, 5 Liberals, 1 Independent

British Columbia will be the last province to report. And it may dictate who wins the most seats in the House of Commons. The NDP seems somewhat strong in the Vancouver area. And the Conservatives may split the vote in two ridings. In Surrey North, incumbent Chuck Cadman lost the Conservative party nomination and is running as an independent. Will Mr. Cadman win, or will he split the vote with the Conservative party's candidate, handing the election to the Liberals or NDP? And in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, will Conservative turncoat Keith Martin win reelection as a Liberal?

Election Prediction Project predicts Cadman and Martin will both win reelection.

The Territorial Footnote

Yukon Territory, the Northwest Territories and Nunavat each have 1 seat in the House of Commons. Each territory is represented by a Liberal MP. Can the NDP win one or more of these ridings while nobody's looking?

-

Looks like C-SPAN plans to simulcast some of CBC's live coverage tonight, beginning at ABOUT 9:30 p.m. ET/6:30 p.m. PT. It's also possible they could have coverage earlier in the day because there are a lot of "To Be Announced" time slots on today's C-SPAN schedule:

http://inside.c-spanarchives.org:8080/cspan/fullschedule.csp

09:30 pm
2:29 (est.) LIVE
Broadcast
Canadian Election Night Coverage
Canadian Broadcasting Corporation

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/elections/fed2004/provincial-list/riding-finder.html

Another continuously updating Riding tracker for the night. Later tonight there will be an interactive map at above, which looks pretty good from the preview.

Thanks for posting this.

I'll be scrutineering today but will check in every chance I get. It's going to be a busy day and hopefully the start of a new direction for Canada.

There's HOPE for Canada !

Will you be posting results from the North Minehead By election, as well?

Are there any porn stars running for parliment?

The Election Prediction Project website is apparently run by a card-carrying liberal, and consequently, has the Liberals winning 121-105 with the other seats spread out [BQ-52, NDP-29, Ind-1]. They FINALLY pegged John Herron to lose Fundy at the last minute, but frankly, and I'm not even Canadian, the Ontario call looks way off. I doubt, despite Liberal moves in the polls, that they'll make off with 65 seats in the province, especially with the NDP running stronger. It seems they only have the CPC the most obvious gains while tossing everything else to the Liberals. The Quebec prediction I think is also understating BQ support.

Barring a disaster, the Conservatives should win a government tonight (minority OR majority, most likely minority).

I know that CP24 streams live, but does anyone know if NWI is going to simulcast CBC's election coverage?

Just a side question. Where did the term riding come from to describe a MP district?

Good luck to our friends to the North (And East in my case)

Just the fact that Martin panicked and traveled all over the last couple days shows they think they are in trouble.

I will buy some Labatts tonight and toast you from California if Harper pulls it off!

Let me give you my cockamamie prediction:

Conservative Party: 131

Liberal Party: 100

Bloc: 55

NDP:22

By the looks of it, I predict an issue-by-issue agreement between the Tories and the Bloc to form a government (although BQ MP's wouldn't be appointed Cabinet ministers).

Final Shorcan futures results:
4:00 PM

Liberals
Bid 31.9
Offer 32.9
Change -0.40

Conservatives
Bid 31.6
Offer 32.6
Change +0.10

NDP
Bid 17.3
Offer 17.8
Change +0.10

Bloc
Bid 11.4
Offer 11.9
Change +0.40

Green
Bid 4.8
Offer 5.3
Change +0.10