Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: conservative in nyc

The Election Prediction Project website is apparently run by a card-carrying liberal, and consequently, has the Liberals winning 121-105 with the other seats spread out [BQ-52, NDP-29, Ind-1]. They FINALLY pegged John Herron to lose Fundy at the last minute, but frankly, and I'm not even Canadian, the Ontario call looks way off. I doubt, despite Liberal moves in the polls, that they'll make off with 65 seats in the province, especially with the NDP running stronger. It seems they only have the CPC the most obvious gains while tossing everything else to the Liberals. The Quebec prediction I think is also understating BQ support.

Barring a disaster, the Conservatives should win a government tonight (minority OR majority, most likely minority).


37 posted on 06/28/2004 7:30:25 AM PDT by GiveEmDubya (We Need a New Reagan Revolution)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]


To: GiveEmDubya

I agree that it's advantage-tory. The NDP won't get enough seats to support a Liberal government, and backing Martin would be political suicide for the Bloc, which is riding an anti-Liberal wave. It could even be similar to 1979 where the Créditistes were able to keep the Tories in power merely by abstaining from votes (Joe Clark had more seats than the NDP and Liberals combined- it took all three opposition parties to defeat him).


39 posted on 06/28/2004 7:36:38 AM PDT by Squawk 8888 (Earth first! We can mine the other planets later.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 37 | View Replies ]

To: GiveEmDubya
There is no question that the Election Prediction Project's predictions favored the incumbents (usually the Liberals) in close races. They've updated their website since this morning to throw Cardigan, P.E.I. to the Liberals. I cited the project because they have a decent track record, and were the only place I found riding-by-riding and provincial breakdows.

Professional Seat Prognostications:

Election Prediction Project
121 Liberal
105 Conservative
52 Bloc Quebecois
29 NDP
1 Independent

Laurier Institute (Professor Barry Kay)
114 Conservative
108 Liberal
59 Bloc Quebecois
26 NDP
1 Independent

Ekos
117 Liberal
109 Conservative
55 Bloc Quebecois
27 NDP

Ipsos Reid
115-119 Conservative
99-103 Liberal
64-68 Bloc Quebecois
22-26 NDP

National Post Columnist Andrew Coyne's "Collective Wisdom" Entries
122 Conservative
106 Liberal
57 Bloc Quebecois
22 NDP
1 Independent

FreeDominion.ca Election Prediction Thread

Feel free to post others.
41 posted on 06/28/2004 9:23:25 AM PDT by conservative in nyc
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 37 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson