Conservative Party: 131
Liberal Party: 100
Bloc: 55
NDP:22
By the looks of it, I predict an issue-by-issue agreement between the Tories and the Bloc to form a government (although BQ MP's wouldn't be appointed Cabinet ministers).
Posted on 06/28/2004 2:51:25 AM PDT by conservative in nyc
The Canadian election is today. If the most recent polls are correct, the Conservative Party of Canada may win more seats in Canada's House of Commons, setting the stage for a Conservative minority government. A new day may be dawning in Canada. But the election is going to be close.
Please use this thread for any early election articles that pop-up over the course of the day, predictions and news analysis, and, of course, the actual results as they come in.
Also, please post links to Canadian elections result sites here.
Ed Broadbent? Yeah, he'll win along with Jack Layton and his wife Olivia Chow. There seems to be something in the makeup of urban areas that they elect extreme socialists. They couldn't be elected in rural or exurban Ontario for sure.
I posted this on another thread a few days ago, as an American outsider looking in:
My seat prediction:
Alberta: CPC (28), Lib (0)
[Kilgour's loss the big upset, Annie-Get-Your-Guns is toast]
BC: CPC (27), Lib (4), NDP (4), Ind (1) {Chuck Cadman}
[I don't buy some of those BC Election Prediction calls for
a second]
Sask: CPC (9), NDP (4), Lib (1)
[Larry Spencer running as an Ind will throw the seat to the NDP, Churchill River goes CPC]
Man: CPC (7), NDP (4), Lib (3)
[Glen Murray will lose in Charleswood, Joy Smith will win in Kildonan]
Ontario: CPC (51), Lib (46), NDP (9)
[Capobianco wins in Etobicoke-Lakeshore + much better results for the CPC in and out of the 905]
Quebec: BQ (59), Lib (16)
[Helene Scherrer, Robert Lanctot, etc. are all toast. Montreal might be the only place Liberals have seats in the province after tonight, save a few spread out elsewhere.]
NB: CPC (5), Lib (4), NDP (1)
[Herron, Savoy & Scott all lose]
NS: CPC (4), Lib (4), NDP (3)
[Brison may hold on, then again, he may not]
PEI: Lib (3), CPC (1)
[MacAulay loses]
NF: Lib (5), CPC (2)
[Barnes unfortunately loses--but by a much closer margin than was expected]
Territories: Lib (3)
FINAL:
CPC (134)
Lib (89)
Bloc (59)
NDP (25)
Ind (1)
But enough about this, I'm eager to see the REAL results!
I know that CP24 streams live, but does anyone know if NWI is going to simulcast CBC's election coverage?
A little on the high side. I'd play it safe and give the Liberals at least 100 seats. The Bloc is not going to win any anglophone ridings in Quebec so they can't go higher than 60. I'll be surprised if they break 55. The Liberals should be able to hold at least 50 seats in Ontario; 40 should go to the Conservatives and the remainder to the NDP. It looks like a Conservative sweep out West. My reading is 130 Conservatives, 100 Liberals, 55 Bloc, 22 NDP, 1 IND. Perhaps the gods will favor the bold and the Conservatives will be catapulted into a majority. Anyway we shall see later tonight how it all plays out.
Just a side question. Where did the term riding come from to describe a MP district?
Just a side question. Where did the term riding come from to describe a MP district?
Good luck to our Canadian conservative friends.
Good luck to our friends to the North (And East in my case)
Just the fact that Martin panicked and traveled all over the last couple days shows they think they are in trouble.
I will buy some Labatts tonight and toast you from California if Harper pulls it off!
It comes from the Mother Country, where parliamentary districts were called ridings. Canadian government is consciously modeled after the U.K's.
Oh I think Martin's Liberals are toast. You don't make a one last ditch victory rally if you've got the election in the bag.
A riding is an area, can be for administrative purposes, for example Yorkshire, a county in UK, has an east and west riding. Not sure of origins of the term, would guess something to do with how far you could ride in a day or something !
I've still got these gut feelings that the Liberals will win less seats than the Conservatives in Ontario. They will get gutted in Quebec, as everyone suspects they will.
The west, as we all know, will be Tory country. The weather is supposedly great out there today and the farmers will get out to vote. Latest farm poll I saw showed that farmers favored the Conservatives pretty strongly. Weather will not be impeding voting just about anywhere it looks like, with the exception of thunderstorms later in some areas (which shouldn't cause much disruption save a loss of power).
Conservative Party: 131
Liberal Party: 100
Bloc: 55
NDP:22
By the looks of it, I predict an issue-by-issue agreement between the Tories and the Bloc to form a government (although BQ MP's wouldn't be appointed Cabinet ministers).
bump
I guess I owe you my projection. I figure since fat-boy Moore and Ralph Nader can publicly try to scare Canadians to vote against the Tories, folks from the States can make fancy projections:
Newfoundland - 5 LIB, 2 CPC
Prince Edward Island - 3 LIB, 1 CPC
Nova Scotia - 4 LIB, 4 CPC, 3 NDP
New Brunswick - 6 LIB, 3 CPC, 1 NDP
Quebec - 56 BQ, 19 LIB
Ontario - 57 LIB, 41 CPC, 8 NDP
Manitoba - 7 CPC,4 LIB ,3 NDP
Saskatchewan - 8 CPC ,5 NDP, 1 LIB
Alberta - 27 CPC, 1 LIB
British Columbia - 25 CPC, 6 NDP, 4 LIB, 1 Independent
Territories -2 LIB, 1 NDP
Total
118 Conservatives (33.8% popular vote)
106 Liberals (33%)
56 Bloc Quebecois (12%)
27 NDP (17%)
1 Independent (<0.2%)
0 Green (4%)
Voted at lunch for the Conservative, Blair MacLean in Kingston and the Islands riding in Ontario.
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