FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll: Bush 47%, Kerry 40%, Nader 3%

Fox News/PollingReport ^ | 6.24.04

[ambrose]

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. June 22-23, 2004. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.
						.
"If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Republican George W. Bush, Democrat John Kerry, and independent candidate Ralph Nader?" Names rotated; respondents pushed for decision. Nader identified as Green Party candidate in 2/04 poll.
						.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Ralph Nader	Other (vol.)/ Not Sure	Wouldn't Vote (vol.)
		%	%	%	%	%
	6/22-23/04	47	40	3	9	1
	6/8-9/04	42	42	3	12	1
	5/18-19/04	40	40	3	15	2
	4/21-22/04	42	40	2	14	2
	3/23-24/04	43	42	3	10	2
	2/18-19/04	43	42	4	9	2
						.
"If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Republican George W. Bush and Democrat John Kerry?" Names rotated; respondents pushed for decision
						.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Other (vol.)/ Not Sure	Wouldn't Vote (vol.)
		%	%	%	%
	6/22-23/04	48	42	8	2
	6/8-9/04	43	45	10	2
	5/18-19/04	42	42	13	3
	5/4-5/04	44	41	13	2
	4/21-22/04	43	42	12	3
	4/6-7/04	43	44	12	1
	3/23-24/04	44	44	10	2
	3/3-4/04	44	44	11	1
	2/18-19/04	45	45	9	1
	2/4-5/04	47	43	9	1
	1/21-22/04	49	42	8	1
	1/7-8/04	54	32	12	2
	7/03	54	35	8	3
	5/03	58	29	11	2
	12/02	57	29	12	2

[PigRigger]

"It appears that Kerry's numbers fall every time he actually gets out and campaigns"

You've noticed that too?

He just looks and sounds like a bitter ol' has-been northeastern liberal. It only gets worse when his wife starts talking.

[Wyatt's Torch]

It's the 7 point lead that seems out of whack with others except for Harris. The other are typically within the MOE. That was the source of my comment.

[POA2]

Great news! -

Lets hope Fox News promotes the hell out of this poll - you won't see it mentioned on any of the other networks - Yet the networks all ran with ABC news poll showing GWB down -

Great news.

[woodyinscc]

Meaningless. The poll is of "registered voters nationwide" -- not "likely voters" and not electoral votes.

Not so, a poll of likely voters would be more favorable to our side. When Republicans say they will vote, they will do so a higher percentage of the time then the rats.

[BushisTheMan]

I do expect that when he picks Edwards as the only running mate willing to be his VP choice, that their numbers will go up.

That is, until the truth about Edwards is known by the masses. The RATs didn't feed off of each other, so it will be all NEW NEWS to the public about his trial lawyer antics and the reasons why your medical costs go up -- making his millions off of suing medical companies.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

The same poll has job approval/disapproval at 49-44. The last Fox poll had it at 48-45.

Where's the guy that does the head to head analysis based on the approval ratings? Last time he had Bush at 45.7% but according to that site, even the most Dem-favored poll had Bush at 47.

[Owen]

>
Meaningless. The poll is of "registered voters nationwide" -- not "likely voters" and not electoral votes.

>

Until very recently, you had a very good point. Recently, however, there has been doubt thrown on the concept of "likely voter" because the definition of likely is not uniform among all pollsters. Registered voter is entirely objective. You can look at polls of registered voters and mentally add a few (no certain number because of the varied definitions of "likey") percent to Bush's total, but most probably the definition of "few" is subjective too.

If Bush has a solid lead among registered voters, he's doing well. And as for EVs, a divergency of EV and popular vote generally can't happen by more than 1 or 2%. The electoral college was designed that way. A solid popular vote lead will translate to EVs. The population remains largely homogenous across states.

[jern]

I guess this poll can be trusted since it came from Fox News.

[conservative in nyc]

The general trend of all the recent polls is also important. President Bush seems to have received a 5-7 percent bump after the Reagan funeral. Even today's Gallup poll (Bush +1) shows this.

The question is whether he can build on this momentum.

[Salvation]

BIG bump!

[TonyInOhio]

You're missing out on another chance to bemoan the President's low poll numbers. C'mon over!

[KansasGirl]

It is great when the DemocRATS bring out Michael Moore, Bill Clinton, and Al Gore!!

[BlackRazor]

Where's the guy that does the head to head analysis based on the approval ratings? Last time he had Bush at 45.7% but according to that site, even the most Dem-favored poll had Bush at 47.

ElectionProjection.com does a head-to-head analysis using a combination of head-to-head polls, approval ratings and right-track/wrong-track numbers. Is that who you were thinking of?

[gathersnomoss]

Wowie Zowie

[xzins]

This matches the Harris Poll from last week. It doesn't track with Rasmussen who has not at all reflected last week's Harris or this week's Fox.

Anyone know why Rasmussen's numbers wouldn't track somewhat closely with Harris & Fox?

[Dales]

I have a theory. But I have to run now.

[My2Cents]

Also notice that in the head-to-head numbers, Bush is where he was, vis-a-vis Kerry, back at the end of January. Six months of Kerry's string of primary victories, and then strutting around as the Dem candidate in waiting, have been neutralized.

[C.H. Truth]

See all four new polls... in cumulative average...

http://www.coldheartedtruth.com

[C.H. Truth]

See all four new polls... in cumulative average...

http://www.coldheartedtruth.com

[C.H. Truth]

See all four new polls... in cumulative average...

http://www.coldheartedtruth.com