Posted on 06/08/2004 5:45:53 PM PDT by Eurotwit
WASHINGTON, 9 June 2004 — After enduring a number of setbacks during a difficult spring, President Bush appears to be in the midst of a rebound. The economic news is good, the news from Iraq shows some improvement, and the president’s schedule has provided him several opportunities to focus public attention on his campaign theme of “providing strong leadership for America”.
As a result, the president’s poll numbers have risen slightly and one prominent pundit, who has developed a scientific model that has correctly predicted the outcome of every election since 1984, now says that Bush appears to be a likely winner in November.
Just one month ago, Bush was in the midst of a string of setbacks. A series of books had been published revealing embarrassing information about his presidency.
The Sept. 11 commission provided a number of damaging challenges to the administration. And the Abu Ghraib scandal, coupled with an insurgent-driven unraveling of the military situation in Iraq - all combined to deliver serious blows to Bush’s leadership image.
But the news has improved. The US economy continues to grow. The administration was boosted by news last week that the US added almost one million news jobs in the past four months.
News from Iraq has also been somewhat more comforting. More flexible American tactics have provided at least short-term solutions to the Fallujah insurrection and the possibility of a settlement to the Sadr rebellion.
Although the plan for the selection of Iraq’s interim government didn’t unfold as anticipated, the US’ new flexibility put the administration in the position of being able to embrace the outcome and call it a victory. Evidence of this was on display last week as a confident President Bush appeared in the White House Rose Garden delivering an upbeat message of Iraq now on a track for democracy.
That address, coupled with Bush’s appearance at the official commemoration of Washington’s new World War II memorial, other Memorial Day activities, and his stirring commencement address to an obviously supportive Air Force Academy graduating class, provided the president with a number of very positive media opportunities that he used with great effectiveness.
Now in the midst of a European tour, with visits to the Vatican, Rome, Paris, and culminating at a Normandy 60th D-Day anniversary commemoration, the White House is assured of several more days of positive news stories dominating the US media.
All of this has had an obvious effect on the presidential race. Bush’s events have drowned out challenger John Kerry’s weeklong efforts to challenge the Bush administration’s national security policy.
A series of Kerry press events and policy speeches focusing on a range of initiatives have all been reduced to secondary stories in the face of the White House’s blitz. With this has come an uptick in public opinion polls.
A few weeks ago, Bush was trailing behind Kerry in most major polls. He now holds a slight lead in many. The country is too politically divided for any major swing to occur, but the change in the White House’s fortunes has nevertheless produced measurable results.
Late last week I hosted American University professor Allan Lichtman on my Abu Dhabi TV “Viewpoint” program. Lichtman is the analyst who has developed a scientific model for predicting the outcome of presidential elections.
While Lichtman has been using his model to correctly call the results of every race since 1984, he has based his approach on an analysis of the past 35 presidential contests going back to 1860. Instead of utilizing polling data, Lichtman analyzes macro trends in the economy and the society. He has identified 13 such indicators and calls them his “13 Keys”.
According to Lichtman for the incumbent to win reelection, he needs to hold at least eight of these “13 Keys”. The “13 Keys” are:
1. The Incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives after the mid-term election;
2. There is no real contest for the incumbent nomination;
3. The incumbent-party is the current president;
4. There is no real third-party;
5. The economy is not in recession;
6. Per capita economic growth is improving;
7. The administration effected major policy changes;
8. There is no major social unrest;
9. The incumbent is untainted by major scandal;
10. There have been no major military or foreign policy failures;
11. There was a major military or foreign policy success;
12. The incumbent is charismatic or a national hero; and
13. The challenger is not charismatic and not a national hero.
According to Lichtman’s assessment, Bush currently can claim the eight keys necessary to win. (Bush has “Keys” 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 11 and 13.) The four “Keys” Bush loses are 6, 7, 10 and 12. “Key” nine is still unclear.
Since most of the “Keys” are macro, or long-term indicators, Lichtman sees little change possible with most of them. The two, however, that could change are numbers 9 and 11.
If, for example, any of the currently outstanding investigations (9/11, Abu Ghraib, pre-Iraq war intelligence and the leak of a CIA agent’s identity) expand and lead directly to the White House, then Bush will lose “Key” 9. And if Iraq takes a turn for the worse and Afghanistan, the one domestically perceived foreign policy success, unravels dramatically enough to change public perception, then Bush would lose “Key” 11 and could, therefore, according to Lichtman, be in trouble.
The situation is still somewhat fluid. But, as it stands today, if Bush’s good fortune holds, his edge in the polls may remain and he could continue to hold enough “Keys” to be reelected in November.
Just a general FYI: James Zogby is not the same as the pollster John Zogby..
Zogby is full of crap.
>>Just a general FYI: James Zogby is not the same as the pollster John Zogby..
But aren't they related? This one is as full of it as the other one is.
his brother I believe.
Strategery is working.
11. There was a major military or foreign policy success;
Afghanistan was a success, but the situation in Iraq will dominate it. Whatever happens in Iraq as we get closer to the election will determine whether Bush can lay claim to key #11. (I think he'll win it, but the situation is by no means assured for him).
Lichtman is so biased left that for him to have to admit that Bush is likely to win the election, Bush must be doing very well indeed.......
It's all figured out, we don't need no stinkin elections, seriesly!
One brother says Kerry will win and the other says Bush will win. Looks like a Zogby will win regardless.
If by "fluid" they mean that certain RATs are starting to wet themselves on a daily basis, I would have to agree.
If Bush's numbers are improving - why isn't he showing the improved numbers .. if Kerry's were improving even 1 point, they would be making hay out of it.
Maybe the improvement is WAAAAAAAAY beyond what they were expecting.
According to the US Dept. of Commerce Bush gets key #6 as well. 
As to key #7, I would find it hard to believe that anyone could say our foreign policy regarding terrorism is not the result of "major policy changes". This is in addition to reversing eight years of tax hikes.
I have to assume that professor Lichtman is swallowing the liberal Kool-aid when he says we have had major military or foreign policy failures. I'm not sure how conquering 2 countries in 2 years constitutes a failure. Doing this in spite of wide spread opposition makes this more of a success not less.
Kerry's Election to loseBut it was pollster John Zogby who gave the most intriguing briefing. Zogby has to be taken seriously because he got it right when almost all the pollsters had it wrong in 2000. He also caught the slight tilt toward the Republicans on the eve of the 2002 elections.
What he told the group upset most of them -- but his message came through loud and clear. While most pollsters view this election as Bush's to lose, he believes this election is Kerry's to lose.
He said that usually at this time of year, 20-25% of the electorate is undecided, but this year there only 5% of the electorate is undecided. Finding such people when polling is becoming exceedingly difficult, he told us. Moreover, the soft vote, that is the people who MIGHT be persuaded to vote for the other guy, is only 10% -- a historic low.
Let's call a spade a spade...The perceived setbacks were manufactured by the left, rehashed at times, intentionally slanderous and fabricated at others.
This is another example of the media beating a false drum, creating a false impression, and then using the polling from that false impression (only when it comports with their brainwashing) as evidence of their preconceived conclusion. The media and the DNC then use this doctored perception to beat Republicans over the head, demoralize the country and the troops, and finally give our enemies proof that their wonten killing is effective.
1. The Incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives after the mid-term election;
Bush gets this one as the GOP has a majority in the House. So that makes one for Bush.
2. There is no real contest for the incumbent nomination;
Again this favors Bush. That makes two for Bush.
3. The incumbent-party is the current president;
This is true. So that makes three for Bush.
4. There is no real third-party;
Oddly this actually works for Bush this year according to the system Bush loses this one. So it remains 3 for Bush.
5. The economy is not in recession;
This is true. That makes it four for Bush.
6. Per capita economic growth is improving;
Let's see, we were in a recession. We are now experience growth. To my mind a positive number is improving over a negative number? I do not see how they claim this is not another for Bush?????? So make it five for Bush.
7. The administration effected major policy changes;
Bush has been greatly criticized for making a major change in US foreign policy by announcing that he will not wait around to respond to each terrorist attack but will take the war to the terrorist. Hard for me to understand how someone can be heavily criticized for making a major policy change and yet not get credit for this one. So make it six for Bush.
8. There is no major social unrest;
This one I guess is controversial, but I don't see any major social unrest? I see failed demonstrations after failed demostration. So the left is trying, but there is no major social unrest. That makes it seven for Bush.
9. The incumbent is untainted by major scandal;
One could quibble about this one too. The left has tried to make both the 9-11 terrorists attacks and the Iraqi prison situation a major. Still make it eight in Bush's favor.
10. There have been no major military or foreign policy failures;
I think this one favors Bush too, but for the sake of argument lets say the public's general perception is there has been a major foreign policy failure. So Bush's total stays at eight.
11. There was a major military or foreign policy success;
Certainly as others have said, Afghanistan or capturing Saddam count as success, so add one more. That makes it nine for Bush.
12. The incumbent is charismatic or a national hero; and
Probably not although after 9-11 he was viewed pretty heroically, so the total stays at nine in Bush's favor.
13. The challenger is not charismatic and not a national hero.
Boy the Dim's have read this list. They are trying here, but Kerry is not Ike or Grant so this one in favor of Bush. That makes the grand total by my count ten out of thirteen.
It could be 11 if the public perception of Iraq is that it is the success it is. It really is 12 since there is no third party that threatens Bush. So one can argue it is 12 out of 13 and there is not way Bush can change that he is not Ike or Grant.
"A series of books had been published revealing embarrassing information about his presidency."
Such as????
Wait until the majority of that $200M get spent promoting what has gone right in the past 12 months.
I live in Nevada, a so called swing state. I see three times as many ads by commie groups against W as I do W ads for him. Even with this, the last poll here showed Kerry down 11. Its probably a little too big to be realistic but with a 4-1 ad advantage for 8 solid months it should be Kerry, Kerry, Kerry.
The Sept. 11 commission provided a number of damaging challenges foolish commissioners whose silly antics made the public sympathetic to the administration.
And the Abu Ghraib nonscandal, coupled with an insurgent-driven a media concocted unraveling of the military situation in Iraq - all combined to deliver serious blows to had--despite media attempts to make them huge--absolutely no effect on Bush’s leadership image.
Just tidying up.
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