Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

FederalReview Composite Poll and E.V. Prediction, June 1, 2004, Bush 47.77%-274 | Kerry 48.52-264
Federal Review ^ | June 1, 2004 | Federal Review

Posted on 06/02/2004 5:47:21 AM PDT by Darth Reagan

click here to read article


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-24 next last

1 posted on 06/02/2004 5:47:23 AM PDT by Darth Reagan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Darth Reagan

After all the bashing the Rats and their willing accomplises in the press have been doing, this must be a blow to the Kerry bunch.


2 posted on 06/02/2004 5:50:12 AM PDT by Piquaboy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Darth Reagan
What this shows is that despite all the bad news -- Prison pictures, gas prices, Iraq deaths, etc etc etc -- People still are hesitant to support Kerry.

Bush is very very vulnerable, but Kerry has done absolutely nothing to take the momentum away from Bush. Kerry brings absolutely nothing to the table, he is condescending, unlikable and snobbish.

This election is entirely a referendum on George W. Bush and it is his election to win or Lose -- John kerry has proven that he gives people absolutely no reason to vote for him only an alternative to voting for Bush.

I still maintain that when all is said and done Bush will win by 3-4% and around 300-320 EV.

3 posted on 06/02/2004 5:59:09 AM PDT by commish (Freedom Tastes Sweetest to Those Who Have Fought to Preserve It)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Darth Reagan

Rasmussen is coming out with some state polls at 3 Eastern.


4 posted on 06/02/2004 5:59:52 AM PDT by WinOne4TheGipper (Third parties serve only to kill what they claim to promote and promote what they claim to oppose.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Darth Reagan
Darth, the lunacy of the Zogby poll just dawned on me this week when I was contacted to participate in this interactive poll. This is important because Z. had contacted my e-mail address before and I deleted it without even looking at it. Now, you know the numbers better than I, but doesn't Zogby's interactive "battleground" poll use something like 1300 respondents from 10-15 battleground states? (I forget the specifics). What this means, though, is that fewer than 100 people per state are responding, and that means that when I added my little vote for Bush, it added something like 1/800, or 1.5% of the total!!! Imagine, now, 2-3 other Freepers did the same thing. You could get a shift of 4.5% instantly! It's bogus!
5 posted on 06/02/2004 6:11:34 AM PDT by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of news.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: WinOne4TheGipper

Thanks.


6 posted on 06/02/2004 6:46:46 AM PDT by Darth Reagan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: LS

I would also expect that Zogby doesn't use all the "votes" he receives, but adjusts them based on making sure he has certain demographics represented that conform to his estimate of how people will vote in that state. Dales has a better discussion of the problems with Zogby Interactive, and has pointed out that recent traditional polls disagree with the ZI results.

I don't use the Zogby Interactive numbers in my analysis.


7 posted on 06/02/2004 7:06:43 AM PDT by Darth Reagan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Darth Reagan

On Dave Leip's page, he allows users to enter predictions. Basically what I do is take the last three polls of a state and average them out. Right now, Kerry has a 284-254 lead. I'd be interested to see how these polls affect that.


8 posted on 06/02/2004 7:07:48 AM PDT by WinOne4TheGipper (Third parties serve only to kill what they claim to promote and promote what they claim to oppose.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: commish
This election is entirely a referendum on George W. Bush and it is his election to win or Lose -- John kerry has proven that he gives people absolutely no reason to vote for him only an alternative to voting for Bush.

This seems to be the consensus of many people I talk to here in what is arguably a battleground region of a battleground state. Kerry himself is kind of irrelevant at this point. The Rats might as well be running a mannequin as their candidate (which might be an improvement in some ways, at least as far as not flipping off veterans in front of school children is concerned). The election seems to be coming down to a question of whether or not people want Bush out of there. In my state, at least, it's still an open question at this point.

9 posted on 06/02/2004 7:13:40 AM PDT by chimera
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Darth Reagan

Last night's SD election shows just how bad Zogby screws the pooch in the state totals...


10 posted on 06/02/2004 7:49:06 AM PDT by Keith (The American Press is in violation of Article III, Section 3. Time to prosecute.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Darth Reagan

Zogby is making the same mistake Rasmussen made in 2000. Rasmussen used the automatic polling method then and showed Bush winning comfortably. he completely missed the movement that last weekend, when all the traditional polls had it as a nailbiter at the end. Zogby is now doing the same type of polling this time around, and is getting the same skewed results but since Zogby is biased Dem instead of R his results are skewed to sKerry.


11 posted on 06/02/2004 7:52:09 AM PDT by commish (Freedom Tastes Sweetest to Those Who Have Fought to Preserve It)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Keith

Can you give me a quick comparison of last night's SD results v the Zogby numbers?


12 posted on 06/02/2004 7:52:38 AM PDT by EllaMinnow
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: chimera
In my state, at least, it's still an open question at this point.

That is the most worrisome aspect of this -- even here is Alabama where Bush will win in double digits, I have a lot of friends who are saying they wish they had a viable alternative to vote for. Bush is on very thin ice almost completely across the board (except for his core backers), he badly needs something positive to happen for him -- all he needs is to find the one good reason to give people to vote for him again.

13 posted on 06/02/2004 7:55:21 AM PDT by commish (Freedom Tastes Sweetest to Those Who Have Fought to Preserve It)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: redlipstick

ZOgby showed Herseth with a Double Digit lead (14 pts I think) -- final result looks to be less than 3000 votes, maybe 50.4 - 49.6 finish


14 posted on 06/02/2004 7:56:36 AM PDT by commish (Freedom Tastes Sweetest to Those Who Have Fought to Preserve It)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: commish

Thanks much.
Zogby is so obviously weighting his results to the dems.


15 posted on 06/02/2004 8:08:48 AM PDT by EllaMinnow
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: redlipstick
Zogby is so obviously weighting his results to the dems

Zogby is probably still using the old Dem 39% Rep 36% IND 25% formula that pollers have used for years. He hasn't adjusted for the fact that it is now a 39%-39% electorate.

In 2000 Rasmussen adjusted, but he adjusted too far (in addition to using a flawed autmatic polling method) -- I think his numbers were actualy in the 38%-36% range for Republicans.

16 posted on 06/02/2004 8:17:26 AM PDT by commish (Freedom Tastes Sweetest to Those Who Have Fought to Preserve It)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: commish
How is LA a battleground state when the most recent poll there has Dubya up by 19%? Also, why are the Dems salivating over TN and VA? They are very unlikely to win either one. Too bad Commie Boy has to spend his time and money in MN, WI, MI, IL, NJ, NM, PA, OH, FL- hahaha.
17 posted on 06/02/2004 9:22:45 AM PDT by conservativeinferno
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Darth Reagan

150 days out, this is pure tail chasing. Don't you just LOVE the precise numbers? Not 47.51 but 47.50 or whatever.


18 posted on 06/02/2004 11:02:50 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 ( Kerry's not "one of us": catholicsagainstkerry.com. needs your help.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jmaroneps37

Sure, I love the precise numbers. You can do that when averaging. Here they are to the billionth.

Bush 47.767288814 | Kerry 48.521009807

Amazing what Excel can do, huh? Even help you chase your tail or try to track trends in presidential election polling.


19 posted on 06/02/2004 11:24:53 AM PDT by Darth Reagan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: conservativeinferno

People need to forget that Louisiana is a battleground. Seems I heard that Bush has pulled his ads there, since it appears to be a lock.


20 posted on 06/02/2004 11:25:57 AM PDT by Darth Reagan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-24 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson