Mark Steyn: A Biological Dead End

The Western Standard ^ | May 17, 2004 | Mark Steyn

[quidnunc]

Four years ago, I caught Alan Keyes, the magnificently conservative African-American speechifier and perennial Presidential candidate, at a campaign stop in New Hampshire. “My friends,” he began, “we stand at the brink of the abyss.”

Wow! What a great opening, I thought. But perhaps not the best campaign slogan. Not exactly “It’s morning in America” or “A thousand points of light”, is it? Democratic politics requires the candidate on the stump, even when on the brink of the abyss, to keep his sunny side up and whistle a happy tune. And that goes double for conservatives. 

But those of us in the media are under no obligation to ac-cen-tchu-ate the positive. And so I confess I was a little surprised when The Globe And Mail rounded up the latest grim statistics on Canada’s birth rate — it’s the lowest since records began, it’s fallen 25.4 per cent since 1992, the current fertility rate of 1.5 births per couple is well below “replacement rate” — and then concluded with a singalong chorus of “Happy Talk”:

Luckily for our future economic and fiscal well-being, Canada is well-positioned to counter the declining population trend by continuing to encourage the immigration of talented people to this country from overcrowded parts of the world.

Phew! So there’s nothing to worry about, eh? We stand at the brink of the abyss but we can fill it up with immigrants and continue on our path to the sunlit uplands. Thank goodness for that. Lucky, aren’t we?

Most 20-year projections — on economic growth, global warming, etc — are almost laughably speculative, and thus most doomsday scenarios are, too. The eco-doom-mongers get it wrong because they fail to take into account human inventiveness: “We can’t feed the world!” they shriek. But we develop more efficient farming methods with nary a thought. “The oil will run out by the year 2000!” But we develop new extraction methods and find we’ve got enough oil for as long as we’ll need it.

But human inventiveness depends on humans — and that’s the one thing we really are running out of. When it comes to forecasting the future, the birth rate is the nearest thing to hard numbers. If only a million babies are born in 2005, it’s hard to have two million adults enter the workforce in 2025 (or 2033, or 2037, or whenever they get around to finishing their Anger Management and Queer Studies degrees). We’re at that moment in the movie where the countdown’s begun and we have a choice of trying to defuse the bomb or accepting our fate. 

-snip-

[arthurus]

25 years ago in one of the most liberal cities in America, Gainesville Florida My wife and I and our 4 kids and a friend , his wife and 4 kids were in the grocery store. All of our kids were well behaved in stores. My friend and I were off in one direction and my wife was off in another. K. had all 8 younguns. When the rest of us drifted back a crowd had collected around K and were berating her terribly for the horrible things she was doing to The Planet. K was smiling and I heard her to say as she patted her stomach,"I'm pregnant. It's twins!"(she lied) The security guard showed up about then and ordered everyone to go about their business.

[mrustow]

If you can handle three or more, more power to you. My two "babies" -- wife and four-year-old son, run me ragged (we never hand him off to babysitters, friends or relatives). And we live in the nation's most child-hostile city, New York. Not that we've done anything to forestall having more, but it doesn't bother me one bit, that our son will already be school (beginning in September) before we have any more.

[Fiddlstix]

BTTT

[45Auto]

"The design flaw of the radically secularist welfare state is that it depends on a religious-society birth rate to sustain it."

Why socialism is a disaster and fatally flawed. This and the idea of "forced egalitarianism" dooms these societies to a future of great civil unrest.

[45Auto]

I wonder how long before the welfare-state supporters will be forced to face reality.

Not until its too damn late to stop the 'civil unrest' (polite wording for civil war).

[atomicpossum]

25 years ago in one of the most liberal cities in America, Gainesville Florida My wife and I and our 4 kids and a friend , his wife and 4 kids were in the grocery store. All of our kids were well behaved in stores. My friend and I were off in one direction and my wife was off in another. K. had all 8 younguns. When the rest of us drifted back a crowd had collected around K and were berating her terribly for the horrible things she was doing to The Planet. K was smiling and I heard her to say as she patted her stomach,"I'm pregnant. It's twins!"(she lied) The security guard showed up about then and ordered everyone to go about their business.

It's at this point that I tell people what to do in the most rude terms possible (really, I'm an easygoing sort, but I have a real ability to be viciously cruel when it's called for). My wife would be worse.

Right now, we have 13-month old twin boys. In about four weeks, we have another on the way. Frankly, we haven't had any such attitudes come up at all, just people who laugh and roll their eyes about how busy we'll be (the obligatory line when they see the twins is 'Boy, you've got your hands full!' We hear that 9 times out of 10.).

[freedumb2003]

Boy, you've got your hands full!

Congrats! :))

[hershey]

Welfare states of the world expect Americans to support and protect them, while at the same time reserving the right to complain non stop about the services we're stupidly providing.

[arthurus]

One difference here is that my old buddy in Gainesville is a lefty instructor at UF- then a lefty grad student. He has always had a hard time about the 4 kids and used to apologize for them a lot.

[atomicpossum]

One difference here is that my old buddy in Gainesville is a lefty instructor at UF- then a lefty grad student. He has always had a hard time about the 4 kids and used to apologize for them a lot.

Frankly, I can't see apologizing to anyone that my children exist. And no one better try to get me to, either.

[arthurus]

Frankly, I can't see apologizing to anyone that my children exist.

His wife has a much better attitude. She loves children and loves raising them. Actually so does he but it conflicts with his environmentalism and numerous other isms that = Academic Liberal.

[sarasmom]

My daughter, the only child of a single mother, plans to have four children, at least, if her future husband can afford for her not to work outside the home.
She plans to homeschool them all, and write books for extra cash.
She is nine.
I encourage her dreams.

[ConservativeStLouisGuy]

Rummyfan,

Thanks for the FULL posting...

Quidnunc,

Hope you're having a nice Memorial Day....it's different spending Memorial Day up here in Canada....I miss being able to live in the United States and feeling like I am a part of the remembering process....saw Pres Bush on TV this morning....watched his address at Arlington National Cemetery....was glad I caught that....


There you go again....

Jim Robinson's Master List Of Articles To Be Excerpted:
Updated FR Excerpt and Link Only or Deny Posting List due to Copyright Complaints


"Did I forget to post the full article again? D'OH!!"

FReegards,

ConservativeStLouisGuy

[NorthOf45]

'They aren't that expensive if raised right.'

That may be true to some extent ... but raising them right can also be an issue. They ARE expensive regardless. Take into account reduced income while one parent takes paternal leave from work. Or, consider child care, $450/month/child minimum. Throw in increased grocery bills, diapers, baby strollers/carseats/furniture/clothes/etc. Yeah, it CAN be quite expensive in the long run.

[hobbes1]

Demography, IS destiny......

[hopespringseternal]

Take into account reduced income while one parent takes paternal leave from work. Or, consider child care, $450/month/child minimum.

That falls under the heading of "if my grandmother had wheels, she would be a wagon."

I know lots of people who go that route, and it is just plain stupid. Could we double our income if my wife worked? Well, yes, but we could also double our income if I took a sales job and spent 80 percent of my time traveling.

But that isn't the same as money spent on the child.

And the $450/month/child isn't money spent on the kids, it is money spent on yourself to maintain a certain lifestyle.

[NorthOf45]

Ah, so to raise a child properly, one parent must sacrifice their career while the other is never around ... how enriching. I guess the other option is to not have children at all. I'll take the "stupid" route thank you.

[hopespringseternal]

Ah, so to raise a child properly, one parent must sacrifice their career

Career or child, hmm, why is that not a hard choice for me? For me, a career is a means to an end not the end in itself.

while the other is never around ... how enriching.

But I am around...I don't travel. I suppose our family income is about a third of what it could be if we went full bore for money. I don't miss it one bit. Kids are better.

I guess the other option is to not have children at all. I'll take the "stupid" route thank you.

One shouldn't have children if he is not prepared to orient his lifestyle around having children. Children aren't expensive, but certain lifestyles are expensive with children.

[NorthOf45]

You go your way and I'll go mine ... both routes have advantages. I don't see it as being black and white.

[drtom]

I concur with you as long as career is equated to income.
Once your career revolves around R&D (like mine) and you want to make a difference in the world and for your nation it is not so easy anymore. To get this country ahead in the world you need to live and breathe your area of research. If my wife and I had children I would either fall behind in my area of expertise, or my children would see me as the guy who sometimes comes home in time for supper.