Posted on 05/26/2004 5:53:10 AM PDT by RWR8189
Forty-five percent of Americans say war worth it; 52% disagree
PRINCETON, NJ -- A new Gallup Poll shows support for the war with Iraq has stabilized at a lower level, little different from that found two weeks ago at the height of publicity surrounding the Abu Ghraib prison abuse scandal. This is in spite of the fact that Americans' assessment of how the situation in Iraq is going for the United States has become slightly more positive. With the United States set to turn over governing authority in Iraq on June 30, Americans remain skeptical that peace and security will be established there, and that a democratic government will exist there in the near future. Nevertheless, more than 7 in 10 Americans say Iraq is better off now than before the war began.
The poll was conducted May 21-23, prior to President Bush's address on Iraq Monday night. Forty-five percent of Americans say the war with Iraq was worth it, while 52% disagree. This is essentially unchanged from a May 7-9 poll, taken at the height of the Abu Ghraib scandal, which showed 44% of Americans saying the war was worth it. Prior to this month, with just one exception (a 49% reading in a Jan. 29-Feb. 1 poll), war support has been at or above 50% since the war began in March 2003.
| Worth Going to War in Iraq? |
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Views on the war are sharply divided according to one's partisan affiliation -- 82% of Republicans say it was worth it; 78% of Democrats say it was not. Among political independents, 36% say the war was worth it and 61% say it was not.
Even though support for the Iraq war remains steady and is about as low as it has ever been, Americans are becoming less negative in their assessment of how the war is going for the United States. The poll finds 42% of Americans saying things are going "very" or "moderately well" for the United States in Iraq, while 57% say "very" or "moderately badly." In a poll conducted earlier this month, just 37% of Americans said things were going well for the United States, following a 35% reading in April. Not since early March have Americans been as optimistic about U.S. progress in Iraq, although clearly the public is more negative than positive at this time.
| How Would You Say Things Are Going for the United States in Iraq? |
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Again, partisanship strongly colors one's views on how things are going in Iraq -- 74% of Republicans say things are going well, while only 22% of Democrats share that view (77% of Democrats say things are going badly). Both groups now give more positive views than in early May, at which time 64% of Republicans and 16% of Democrats said things were going well.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Gallup Ping
FReepmail me if you want to be on or off the list.
It is time for the GOP to come out swinging. Yesterday.
And The Sheep will believe.
I agree, it is time for the GOP to start punching back, and hard.
This tells me the worst is over as it relates to the President's drop in the polls. Better it happened now, rather than in October.
Sadr's dead body on the nightly news would significantly raise the numbers in my opinion.
A poll like this illustrates the idiocy of public opinion in matters like military campaigns. A war isn't something that you can just turn on and turn off in response to public opinion. Supporting a war in 2002 and then opposing it in 2004 is like opposing the construction of a nuclear power plant two years after you supported it -- and then expecting someone to dismantle it after it was built.
If W's numbers continue to hold steady while JFnK's stay low, the media may just switch back to wondering what is wrong with Kerry and give us a chance to retake the lead.
That is the critical variable. We need a 20-30 point swing there. One in ten to one in six independents has to decide between now and November that is was worth it after all. That is not an easy order to fill.
Notice also that the percentages that say Iraq is better off today are much higher than those that say it was worth it. Meaning the swing group, here, are people who do think Iraq is better off now that Saddam is gone - in other words, they are not brain dead partisan leftists - but do not currently think the price paid to achieve that was worth it. We can't dial down the past price.
What we can do is change the perception of ingraditude on the part of Iraqis. The swing voter here thinks we paid our blood and treasure to improve their lives. But that it wasn't worth doing. It is easy enough to see how those fit together. The Iraqi rebellion and resistence is experienced as ingraditude. If that is how they feel about us, why did we bother helping them? Why should be bleed and pay for people who hate us?
The way to counter this perception, therefore, starts with making progress on the ground against the insurgencies and for Iraqis to take on more responsibility for their own security. But also has to address a perception problem, about Iraqis that want us there. Where are they? What do they think? Have their lives improved? Are they thankful for it? Do they oppose the insurgents themselves?
That is what the swing voter needs to hear about over the next several months.
It occurs to me that there may be a religious impulse behind this, that Bush feels that the people must make a choice and that part of that choice is to see for themselves what the media is up too. I must confess that I for one am somewhat less pious. Bush has an abundant faith in the American people. I hope we do not fail him.
They have just about succeeded in turning this into another Vietnam and this time without a draft, with less than 800 dead, with no real "atrocities" and with compelling national security interest on the table.
I wonder if any rational argument will take the day? I think he needs to get out there and fight in the PR war. It may not matter what he says.
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