Bush's Poll Numbers Don't Mean a Thing Right Now (MUST READ)

Wall Street Journal via Roundup ^ | Feb 27, 2004 | James Q. Wilson

[PhiKapMom]

In January, CBS News reported that President Bush's approval was "sinking." This month, USA Today has said it was hitting "a new low." And there is no doubt that the president's approval rating has fallen, down from nearly 90% right after 9/11 to about 51% today.

But does any of this matter? Since 1945, only three presidents (Eisenhower, Reagan, and Clinton) have retained a high approval rating during their entire period in the White House. Every other president (Truman, Kennedy, Nixon, Ford, Carter, and the elder Bush) lost ground sharply when the voters were asked, as the Gallup Poll does, "do you approve of the way" the president "is doing his job as president?"

President Bush's 51% approval rating looks low, unless you compare it with how other presidents did at the same stage in their White House career.

Full story ...

[PhiKapMom]

Believe a lot of Freepers need to read this even though it is a February article as it still pertains today. I cannot believe first of all the number of polls I see posted as Front Page news when they are posted almost daily. Second, consider the source. Third - quit the handwringing and go out and volunteer! Cannot take all this whining that I am see on here along with the "sky is falling" and I have a feeling that I am not the only one!

Get off the dime, get away from the computer, and do something meaningful for the next few months unless you can handle polling numbers that are being spun by the media and the polling organizations.

Polling right now is going to stay even because if it wasn't, who would hire the pollsters? They want a tight race and are making everyone believe that Kerry walks on water and is going to win. The Democrat and media attacks speak otherwise. If Kerry was so far ahead or that even as they want us to believe the all out attack on Pres Bush would not be happening. The President is attacked by everyone as the Jim Lange cartoon from this morning's Oklahoman so aptly points out.

[TomGuy]

The best thing that would help GWB right now would be for the RNC to buy time and broadcast on network TV Kerry's stump speeches in their entirety.

[Nataku X]

My perspective is the opposite of yours. I think that the Freepers who say that Bush will win in a cakewalk are simply taking his victory for granted and they are the ones being lazy.

Those of us who realize that he's not invunerable are much more motivated to volunteer. I've never seen ANYBODY advocate that we should just give up because of the polls. However, I do see lots of Freepers in denial saying we shouldn't worry at all.

I'm worrying--and that's why I'm volunteering my money. Would volunteer the time too if I physically could.

[Old Sarge]

• First, about 40% of us will vote for a Democrat, even if the candidate is Genghis Khan. About 40% of us will vote for a Republican, even if the candidate is Attila the Hun. That means that the election is left in the hands of one-fifth of the voters.

Almost a verbatim lift from Tom Clancy's, "Executive Orders".

WHCofS Arnie van Damm: Forty percent vote left even if Stalin were on the ticket. Forty percent vote right even if Hitler were on the ticket. It's that twenty percent in the middle..."

Jack Ryan: "Why do they do that, Arnie?"

van Damm: "Why is the sky blue? It just IS, okay, Jack?"

[Moby Grape]

Rasmussen poll for the day before the election had Bush up by 7...he lost the popular vote...Rasmussen had Bush with consistent leads in the months prior to the election. Potriat of America Poll had Bush up by 4 in October 2000...

Using a little common sense, one could look at the performance of Rasumssen months BEFORE the election, and the DAY before the election and conclude that if Rasmussen had Bush leading for MONTHS and even leading the day before the election, yet Bush lost the vote, then we can conclude that CLOSE is NOT good.

It is a mistake to not look to the polls now for some guidance and to find needs for improvment in message. To say that polls now are meaningless is naive at best, and a potential fatal mistake at worst.

[Nonstatist]

First off, he's in the mid 40's right now, 6 months before the election, not low 50's 9 months before and ..people ARE focused on the election NOW, because of the War,etc

IMO, if the War news turns around, so will Bush. But to suggest the current state of affairs is irrelevant because its unpleasant is, well... stupid.

[shhrubbery!]

Polling right now is going to stay even because if it wasn't, who would hire the pollsters? They want a tight race and are making everyone believe that Kerry walks on water and is going to win.

You correctly imply that polls are skewed to make it look like a 'horserace.'

Pollsters can get away with this because (a) most other pollsters are doing the same thing and (b) there is no reality check on published poll results until the election actually takes place.

[Old Sarge]

I've never seen ANYBODY advocate that we should just give up because of the polls.

I do not advocate surrender because of polls - but I DO believe that The Sheep will always accept the false authority of polls conducted by the media - whom The Sheep still hold as having integrity.

I agree with you, that too many FReepers are being complascent about an easy GWB victory. One can never underestimate the stupidity of the voter.

[PhiKapMom]

As you can tell, I have had it with the "sky is falling" that I keep seeing on here about poll numbers. I keep getting told they are not meaningless but that just isn't the case.

When is the last time you saw an approval rating for Kerry and saw where they polled to get that approval rating?

I refuse to believe that the majority of people in this Country watch the evening news or care about the November election. Highest rated shows are Friends, the Bachelor, and others. When it gets closer to the election these people will care. Most people are tired of hearing about the campaign as it is.

This President is taking his message to the people in towns across America and getting his message out to them and in their local press. The national media wants everyone to believe they know it all because they are mad that President Bush is taking his message to the voters all across this great Country! Barbara Bush was right -- you have to go ask for the votes which is exactly what her son is doing. If the President is anywhere near you, please go attend a rally -- you will come away feeling thankful that this man is President and will want to spend every spare moment working for his reelection.

Track the rallies -- people turning out for President Bush are high in number and not bussed in by unions. Do we hear about Kerry's real numbers at his rallies?

How about enthusiasm -- Pres Bush garners a huge amount of enthusiasm that will translate into volunteers to get more voters to the polls to vote for the President in November. Ever hear about enthusiasm at Kerry rallies? He puts people to sleep.

If Kerry was so far ahead, why hold off on accepting the nomination? He would want it as soon as possible to hit the campaign trail as the nominee. Nope -- he wants to wait and raise more money "after" the convention. When is the last time someone couldn't raise money "before" the convention?

Now for everyone on this list please repeat after me -- I will take polls with a grain of salt and work 24/7 if necessary to get President Bush reelected. :) The next time you see someone wringing their hands about poll numbers -- give them this article and tell them to get a grip. You don't get down because of these meaningless numbers, you get mad and ready to fight.

We didn't throw in the towel during the Florida fiasco and now I see some people already throwing in the towel on the November election. Well this Bush Republican is not throwing in the towel and frankly is getting irritated at those who are and wringing their hands on May 25, 2004, which happens to be 161 days from the election.

We have a job to do and a positive attitude is required to go after the naysayers and doom and gloom types from the DemocRATs and we certainly do not need to have Bush supporters doing the same thing. This morning did me over the edge on the "sky is falling" posts and why this article is posted.

DO NOT LET YOURSELF GET INFLUENCED BY POLLS UNLESS THEY MAKE YOU MAD AND MAKE YOU WANT TO WORK HARDER TO REELECT THIS PRESIDENT.

[COURAGE]

Wake up. Bush is in trouble. He's almost toast. It's the media doing Kerry's dirty work. The exaggerate the bad and all queit about the good. The media is doing the same as they did to his father.

[PhiKapMom]

You are doing something and that is my point. The hand wringing and sky is falling approach is not working -- irritating as heck. You don't take anything foregranted in an election and work like you are behind -- always do that.

These people are handwringing and saying we are losing and cannot win in November. That's what I am mad about. If you don't like the poll numbers, get mad and do something about it.

BTW, that is in my rant below your comment when I pinged everyone -- just dawned on my ping comments were not up!

[ChevyZ28]

"I agree with you, that too many FReepers are being complascent about an easy GWB victory. One can never underestimate the stupidity of the voter."

I refer you all to the fact that Clinton did not get voted in to Office just once but twice, and polls taken at the time suggested he could have won a third term easily.

[comebacknewt]

My first thought is that I really wish GWB was still at 51% approval with over half the country thinking the economy is moving in the right direction.

The biggest challenge for the Bush team is that it is going to be much more difficult to move voters back to positive from negative than it was to lose them in the first place. I believe they can do it, but it is going to be a tough, tough fight.

[Arrowhead1952]

The best thing that would help GWB right now would be for the RNC to buy time and broadcast on network TV Kerry's stump speeches in their entirety.

I think the best thing Dubya can do now, is to get all the RAT candidates primary attack ads and play them as Bush/Cheney re-election ads. Now those had some serious hate kerry messages.

[Corin Stormhands]

Using a little common sense, one could look at the performance of Rasumssen months BEFORE the election...

All we know from Rasmussen's 2000 numbers is that he consistently got it wrong.

[PhiKapMom]

See post #10 below and this is all put in context! My comments on the ping list were not up when this thread came up. Polling is flawed right now. It is so flawed in fact that the Oklahoman did their last major polling with people signed into the paper and had you do it on-line as so many phone calls by pollsters are ignored. I talked to a pollster here in this State who said that it is getting harder and harder to get accurate polls from phoning and they are trying a mix and also contacting people through the Internet. Not everyone can participate, you have to be asked to participate just like they call at random. You use polls like Rasmussen to get you mad and get you out working for the President. I am not taking Rasmussen and his polls to heart because he blew 2000 and 2002 along with a lot of others. As for Zobgy on Florida in 2000, I will always believe he took the large amount of RAT fraud in S. Florida into consideration on his late polling switch as his brother worked for Gore!

[Corin Stormhands]

You don't get down because of these meaningless numbers, you get mad and ready to fight.

Exactly. The media wants us to think there is no hope. When the approval ratings start going back up, the word won't get out through the "traditional" media. That's where we come in.

[Revolutionary]

Your right, close is not good enough. Rasmussen was right. But he did not take voter fraud into account. Usually there is 2-3% Democrat voter fraud. In 2004 it was 7% nationwide and 10% in key states. That is one reason they were so angry. All that work to steal the election and it went for nothing. Gore made some mega promises to some black leaders, so they were especially pissed off.

[PhiKapMom]

Read #9 that I put up -- gave wrong number to ITB

Don't like the polls, then do something about it -- go out and volunteer. I refuse to believe this Country will elect a MA liberal. I heard the same arguments in 1988 about Dukakis and how he was going to whip Pres Bush #41 and I had just moved from MA back to OH. I spent hours campaigning for Pres Bush and telling everyone that would listen how bad Dukakis was -- I spoke to teacher's groups because the education my children got in one year in MA was horrible -- old textbooks, etc. Ohio was in play -- going to go to Dukakis at the time but we won in Ohio and across this great Country because a lot of who have been activists are entire lives didn't believe the polls and didn't throw in the towel. In fact, the more the media praised Dukakis, the more mad I got!

Just disgusted with all of the sky is falling and in no place did I say landslide -- you work like you are behind but what good is hand wringing and naysaying right now. Get out and do something positive!

[MattinNJ]

The economy is sound and the WOT is going well. I work in an office full of liberals and they couldn't care less about the "Iraqi prison scandal". As for the media, Reagan won without Fox News or the internet.

These polls don't mean a thing until after the debates. Most of the undecideds don't make up their mind until they are in the booth-thats why the last minute Bush DUI story changed the election from a Bush landslide to a squeaker.

One more thing, (perhaps the most important of all) The Clintons will not let Kerry win. Period.