Posted on 05/24/2004 8:51:31 AM PDT by So Cal Rocket
Bush 45% Kerry 45% Election 2004 Presidential Ballot
Bush 45% Kerry 45% Other 5% Not Sure 5% RasmussenReports.com
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Monday May 24, 2004--Once again, for the fourth straight day, the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 45% of the vote and Senator John F. Kerry earning 45%.
As the President prepares to deliver the first of several speeches aimed at defining the situation in Iraq, he is favored by men, 49% to 43%. However, women prefer Senator Kerry by a 47% to 41% margin.
Voters are also evenly divided as to whether they trust Bush or Kerry more on economic issues. The same is true on controlling government spending and creating jobs. Bush has an edge over Kerry on the issue on national defense. However, his advantage on this point is near its lowest levels of the year.
Today, at 3:00 p.m. Eastern, we will release data on how voters believe the Bush tax cuts impacted the economy... and whether future tax cuts or hikes will have an impact. Also, we will update our weekly figures on who voters believe is winning the War on Terror.
The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.
Over nearly three months of polling, both Bush and Kerry have each stayed within 3 percentage points of 45% on every single night.
The national telephone survey of 1,500 Likely voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports over the past three nights. Margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
"However, women prefer Senator Kerry by a 47% to 41% margin."
Biting my tongue....
Women voting for Kerry is like voting for a husband that will bug out on his family. Kerry's plan for the USA to leave Iraq is to accept "their" surrender conditions. Kerry as President, has America gone mad?
The prevailing wisdom is that Bush has recently slipped in the polls. I'm not sure this is true. I'm sure the perception is true, but not sure about the reality.
Rasmussen has been showing the race the same for about 3 months now. Similarly they've shown Bush's job approval number to be an average of about 51. The questions on who is stronger as a leader, on national defence, and so on have been very consistent.
What we've seen, IMO, is a small lead (about 2 points) with Nader in the picture, and a dead head with him out (Rasmussen doesn't include Nader).
The recent state polls that have come out have shown mixed results. Bush is ahead in Oregon, Michiagan and Florida, but behind in Ohio and Pennsylvania. He is close in California, New Jersey and Illinois. These polls results don't really make a lot of sense, but they do show evidence of support for Bush.
The most recent Newsweek poll, which shows Bush behind by 1 point (with Nader in) is a 3 point improvement over their previous poll. The Fox poll, which shows a dead head, has Bush ahead in the battleground states by 6 points.
So all in all, it appears to me that things are about the same as they were in the beginning of March and have been since then. How Bush appears to be doing at a point in time may just be dependent on who happened to do the last poll.
This link didn't work for me.
No surprise since Kerry is a girl.
Pres. Bush's numbers among women would go up if he
1. Showed the valor of our young troops
2. Showed new schools, hospitals, etc. going up in Iraq
3. Showed people sacrificing for something good.
The media is going straight for female hearts by attempting to show "senseless death and chaos."
I'm on another thread arguing with some women who claim Hillary would not bring a larger vote amongst women. If Kerry can get 47% of women, Hillary can get 60%.
Perhaps, he would IF the media actually televisied this evenings speech?
Now Rasmussen, I get the impression that he is working off of some kind of demographic template that is calibrated to give a 50-50 split. If you adjust the demographics of your survey, they can be made to give the result you want and still be statistically "valid." That's the trick the liberal poll sponsors use. Sure, they have a 95% confidence - if the country votes as their demographic models project. The funny thing is, though, that the country does not vote as their liberal-fantasy models project, which is why they give crazy results such as a 53-40 Democrat/Republican split on the congressional horserace vote.
So, my guess is that Rasmussen, burned so badly in 2000, is determined to not give anybody a big edge this year, at least until the outcome becomes obvious. When Bush starts showing extended strength, he sits there thinking, let's add some more liberals to his telephone list. When Kerry starts showing strength, start making more calls to Alabama and Texas. He is getting the results he wants, but as a predictor of the outcome of the election, I think his polls will be worthless until at least September.
Yeah, but they're all in Los Angeles & NYC.
I disagree.
I think you're underestimatin the intelligence of women.
OTOH, they DID vote for Slick Willie...
The real news here is that given Rasmussen's constant methodoloty, Bush has improved greatly on his numbers as the prison hazing story was being whipped into a frenzy. The resilience of Bush's support is strong. Those in the middle who are swayed by bad news return to the fold as soon as time passes and memory fades.
Because of this, beware a last weekend release by Kerry of the old Bush-drove-a-girlfriend-to-get-an-abortion story. I expect that one to hit the media the last week of the campaign. I hope the Bush campaign has a defense ready, or a counter attack.
no they aren't, they are suburban women outside of the cities. alot of republicans underestimate the pull Hillary has on moderate or even Republican leaning women - it is significant. She is viewed as a "strong woman", with a cheating husband, which she didn't allow to bring her down, she pulled herself up and made it on her own. That plays big amongst woemn, don't underestimate it.
Most women aren't plugged into politics at all, they don't know anything about real Hillary. They will jump at the chance to see the first woman elected president. There is a big "hidden" vote out there amongst women for her. Put Richardson on the ticket to appeal to Hispanics, and she's in.
The only 2008 ticket that can stop her - Rudy/Rice 2008.
"OTOH, they DID vote for Slick Willie..."
They only voted for the sock in his pants... why do you think they named the cat 'sox'
This poll finds that 50% of likely voters approve of the President's performance, while CBS News gives him a 41% approval rating ... who do we believe?
Says who?
She is viewed as a "strong woman"
LOL....again, by whom?
The same Hillary that was "scared" when Rick Lazio crossed the stage to shake her hand during the Senate debate?
That Hillary?
Most women aren't plugged into politics at all, they don't know anything about real Hillary
That's absolutely true....this pretty much answers my above questions.
Regards,
Pete
60%? Based on what? Even most of my die-hard women Dem acquaintances can't stand the woman.
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