Posted on 05/24/2004 6:15:27 AM PDT by chimera
Support For Bush, Iraq War Waning
Local poll finds mood reversal in past 8 months
Published: Sunday, May 23, 2004
By Darrel Rowland
THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH
Central Ohio is turning against both the war in Iraq and President Bush.
A new poll shows that residents of this crucial presidential battleground have sharply reversed themselves in the 8 1/2 months since the nation marked the second anniversary of the 9/11 attack.
The survey and follow-up Dispatch interviews indicate those in the Columbus area are highly disturbed by recent revelations about the abuse of Iraqi prisoners and are no longer willing to accept the continuing American casualties.
Poll participant Marilyn Hannum, 79, of Columbus, has been a lifelong Republican and backed Bush's decision to go to war. But now she says it's time for U.S. forces to leave Iraq.
"I really think we're at the point we should get out,'' she said. "I don't think there will ever be peace in Iraq.''
Like Hannum, many have changed their mind. In a September poll of the Columbus area, 54 percent said they favored staying the course in Iraq even with hundreds more American casualties. Now only 38 percent express that sentiment.
During the same period, the percentage saying the war is worth the cost in U.S. lives fell from 51 to 38.
"There's too much bloodshed, said respondent Cynthia Riley, 42, a former bus driver from the North Side. "It could have been done another way, peacefully.''
Riley, whose brother-in-law is an Army trainer at Fort Polk, La., also said, "The (prisoner) abuse bothers me. Why did they cover it up?''
While Bush's poll numbers also have suffered since September, the decline wasn't quite as dramatic.
Approval of Bush's handling of Iraq has dropped 11 percentage points to 38 percent. His overall approval rating has sunk 6 points to 44 percent since September -- but is 17 points below the that of April 2003, shortly after the war started.
Pundits have pointed out that presidents virtually never win another term when their approval rating dips below 50 percent less than six months before the election. Most national polls have Bush's approval in the mid-40s.
"It's early, and lots can happen between now and the election,'' said Columbus pollster Martin D. Saperstein. His company, Saperstein Associates, conducted the poll for The Dispatch and WBNS-TV (Channel 10).
"This reflects a snapshot in time,'' Saperstein cautioned, "and this is a situation that is extremely fluid. Events in Iraq or elsewhere in the world could change the results dramatically, sometimes overnight.''
One finding that surprised Saperstein: Bush gets less support for his dealing with Iraq -- 38 percent -- than his handling of the economy -- 41 percent.
"The conventional wisdom was that the war would be Bush's strong suit and the economy would be his weak suit,'' Saperstein said. "That's a pretty significant turnaround.''
The poll of 403 randomly selected adults with Columbus telephone exchanges was conducted Monday through Thursday. The margin of sampling error is 4.9 percent.
Respondent Anita Kupka, 52, of New Albany, said she supports the troops but has never believed it was necessary for them to go to Iraq. She accused the Bush administration of "playing on our feelings about 9/11'' to justify the war.
"I think it's a very sad situation,'' said Kupka, a software consultant. She said she never trusted Bush or his father, President George H.W. Bush, who went to war with Iraq in 1991.
"This is finishing what Daddy started,'' Kupka said. "I think their idea was, 'Let's have a war and get people to rally around it and not worry about how our own country is going to pot.' ''
But Charles A. Dozer, 69, of Columbus, said he has no doubts about how Bush is handling the war on terrorism or the war in Iraq.
The retired banker said the prisoner-abuse scandal is a "virtual nonevent'' compared with the overall situation and the efforts to prevent another terrorist attack on U.S. soil.
The difference of opinion between Kupka and Dozer illustrates the gender gap that shows up consistently in the poll numbers.
For example, 83 percent of the female respondents said they were bothered at least a fair amount about the abuse of Iraqi prisoners, compared with 60 percent of males who reacted the same way.
More than two-thirds of men approved of Bush's handling of the war on terror, but fewer than half of women did.
Many of the same differences are found between younger and older respondents, with the latter group more likely to support the war and the president.
For instance, 38 percent of the respondents older than 54 said Bush was trying to cover up the abuse of prisoners in Iraq, instead of investigating the allegations. But 63 percent of those between 18 and 34 suspected a cover-up.
Other key findings:
* While one of the key justifications for attacking Iraq was to protect the United States from terrorists, those taking the poll said by almost a 4-to-1 margin that the threat of terrorism against the country has actually increased because of the war.
* Fewer than four out of 10 respondents want U.S. troops to remain in Iraq until the country is a stable democracy. More than half want control turned over to the Iraqis as quickly as possible.
* About one in 10 respondents said a member of their immediate family is serving in Iraq or Afghanistan. However, their skepticism about the war and Bush were almost identical to that of the rest of the poll-takers.
* Independent voters made up only 8 percent of those surveyed, which means their totals are less reliable statistically. Bush fared badly with this key group. Almost three-fourths disapproved of his job performance, with virtually half expressing strong disapproval. And by a 2-to-1 ratio they don't want Bush re-elected.
* Respondents said the blame for the prisoner mistreatment in Iraq falls on those who did the actual abuse, and even more on their immediate superiors.
* Only about one in four said Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld should resign or be fired over the abuse. Among Democrats, 39 percent said the defense secretary should lose his job.
Dispatch reporters Jon Craig and Mark Niquette contributed to this story.
drowland@dispatch.com
And no, this is not "wishful thinking". I want Bush to win as much as anyone here, but the numbers at this point don't look too good, at least in this area. Okay, let the flamers and spinners have at it.
Pinging FReeper Dales and other poll watchers.
Enough said!
Pray for Pres. Bush!!
adults not likely votrs
But I can tell you, living in this area, keeping my ear to the ground listening to what people around me are saying, I have to say the trends aren't too far off from what this poll seems to be indicating. Right or wrong, people are increasingly doubtful about the purpose and outcome of the Iraq situation. That and the economy (mainly seen through the prism of skyrocketing gasoline prices in the area, as well as unemployment fears) are what's dragging Bush down at this point.
Actually, to take in the big picture, it has taken the liberal media 8 1/2 months and tens of thousands of prime time news stories and front page headlines telling how awful it is in Iraq to drop his approval rating by a measley 6 points.
The numbers in Pennsylvania are much better. Bush lost PA in 2000 and won Ohio. If that were to reverse this time, he would actually gain 1 electoral vote. PA has 1 more EV than does Ohio.
If that were to happen, and all other states vote identically to 2000, Bush would win reelection by about 10 EVs, because re-apportionment from the 2000 Census moved EVs to Bush states, where people relocated since 1990.
I wonder how they would like kerry.
What makes you think a likely voters poll would show anything different?
Here, in the Ohio Valley, working people are turned off by the effort to tamper with overtime pay, the union-busting reputation of the GOP and lowered work opportunities. Unless something dramatically good happens soon, I'd say Bush will have a real hard time carrying Ohio.
They always do.
What concerns me are recent trends, both in Ohio and elsewhere. There's no sense kidding ourselves. The numbers are going against us. I've heard people say thing like "when people get to know Kerry better, they won't like him", but, as each day passes, people get to know Kerry better, and while it hasn't helped him all that much, it doesn't seem to have hurt him, either. When there is dissatisfaction with the incumbent, even if people don't like the alternative all that much, they may be inclined to vote for him simply to get out someone they don't like (for some stupid reason, like they did in '92).
Look at the numbers for "independents" in the central Ohio poll noted in the article. While the absolute numbers aren't large, the percentage numbers are eye-poppers. We're losing that voting bloc big time. If this election comes down to a battle for the "mushy middle" (as some have called it), I think we're facing a tough, uphill battle at this point, with not a lot of time left.
A couple of comments:
Saperstein is good.
Franklin County voted for Gore in 2000.
"Columbus phone exchanges" means either Franklin County or the City of Columbus, this is not Central Ohio in general or Southern Ohio. Franklin and especially Columbus are now Democratic, surburban Columbus, especially Delaware are Republican.
The Dispatch has become the NY Times of Ohio, it is 100% Bush hate all of the time. This is a signifigant thing as the Dispatch was formerly Pravda of the Ohio republican party.
The poll was conducted NYTimes style, run day after day of anti -Bush headlines then poll to see if it worked.
No, they don't. There were polls earlier this year showing Kerry leading more among LV than RV or adults.
This poll is bad news. Tinkering at the margins won't disguise that. Bush had better hope the situation turns around this summer. Time is all he has.
And your RINO Governor doesn't help.
GWB/Rove let the Dems/Libs steal the WoT and War in Iraq.
The Admin has been under constant PR attack. The dems/media blew the prison scandal out of proportion. The dems keep denying WMD, ignoring the recent mustard gas and sarin gas shells. The dems keep ignoring the Saddam-al-Qaeda connections. And the Admin is basically silent.
Brit on FNS yesterday:
Bush has a PR problem. The 'good Iraq report' Wallace did a couple of weeks ago came as a surprise to many people.
[GWB needs to a get a decent PR crew working overtime. Clinton had one to spin and stave off bad news; they even made it to the cameras/mic's before bad news made the airwaves. GWB is losing the PR war.]
I don't believe the poll and not because I am wishfully thinking but I don't believe the media has been as successful in developing the prison story outrage to the height it indicates in this story.
In addition, I am sure this is a solid member in the RATmedia second line. Nothing can be relied upon from the RATmedia. Nothing.
But I also believe we should act as though we do believe that Bush is losing.
Yeah, a poll of one city tells us how the entire county is feeling. Please...
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