Electoral College Breakdown 2004, May 19th Update

I Wouldn't Touch It With a 10 Foot Poll

Same As It Ever Was

A lot has been made about the division between Red and Blue states. John Edwards ran his primary campaign around the concept of "two Americas". At times it seems as if Americans are locked into some sort of dysfunctional marriage badly in need of a John Gray book- "Republicans are from Mars, Democrats are from Venus". From Michael Moore and Al Franken to Ann Coulter it certainly can seem as if partisanship is at an all-time high.

But it is not. Partisanship was with our country almost from the start.

While George Washington did not face the partisan heat in either of his 'campaigns', towards the end of his 8 year tenure the bug was starting to bite the young nation, and even the original George W. did not escape its gnaw. Ben Franklin's grandson, Benjamin Franklin Bache, writing as editor of the Philadelphia paper The Aurora, said "If ever a nation was debauched by a man, the American nation has been debauched by Washington." Another editor, William Duane, wrote, "Would to God you had retired to a private station four years ago." And that was in response to his Farewell Address, in which Washington had warned against party strife.

The campaign for the right to follow Washington as President was amazingly rancorous. Adams was denounced as "an avowed friend of the monarchy", a claim tantamount to treason against the very founding of the nation. Supporters of Jefferson claimed he wanted to make his sons "Seigneurs or Lords of this country." In return, the Federalists threw the gauntlet at Jefferson. Atheist. Anarchist. French stooge. Coward. And his supporters, "cut-throats who walk in rags and sleep amidst filth and vermin".

The media did not ask them to apologize, either.

It did not take long for internal party bickering to surface, either. In the run-up to the 1800 election, Alexander Hamilton made a bid to become the first unofficial 'unappeasable' partisan, saying President Adams (a fellow Federalist), "If we must have an enemy at the head of the Government, let it be one whom we can oppose, and for whom we are not responsible, who will not involve our party in the disgrace of his foolish and bad measures." Adams replied by calling Hamilton "a bastard". Jefferson was still the target of much vitriol, with Jacobin being a favorite. He was "a mean-spirited, low lived fellow". The politics of fear mongering and demonization were rampant. Papers wrote, "Murder, robbery, rape, adultery and incest will all be openly taught and practiced" if Jefferson was elected. Adams was characterized as "one continued tempest of malignant passions."

The more things change, the more things stay the same.

Speaking of staying the same, the current campaign seems to have reached a certain level of stagnation. There were many stories this past week about how the President's approval ratings had fallen to new lows, but at the same time the matchup polls showed little, if any, change. Earlier this week, I blogged a comparison of the recent national polls to exemplify that the stories of Bush collapsing and Kerry surging were a bit out of phase with what the actual results were showing (and for those who do read my blog, I apologize for this not being new material, but this has been a very busy week at work).

Newsweek/Princeton Research Associates (MoE +/-4%)
May 13-14	Kerry 43	Bush 42	Kerry +1
April 8-9	Kerry 46	Bush 42	Kerry +4

Perhaps Bush has gained 3 points (or more accurately, Kerry has lost 3). Or perhaps this is just some random statistical noise.

Time/CNN by Harris Interactive (MoE +/-4.1%)
May 12-13	Kerry 51	Bush 46	Kerry +5
February 5-6	Kerry 48	Bush 50	Bush +2

Kerry gains 3, Bush loses 4. Could be that Kerry gained, or again, this could be random statistical noise.

CNN/USAToday/Gallup (MoE +/-5%)
May 7-9	Kerry 47	Bush 48	Bush +1
May 2-4	Kerry 49	Bush 48	Kerry +1

Bush's support stayed the same. Kerry lost two points. Or the randomness inherent in sampling is showing. Can you tell which it is?

Zogby (MoE +/-3.2%)
May 10-13	Kerry 47	Bush 42	Kerry +5
April 15-17	Kerry 47	Bush 44	Kerry +3

Kerry's support stayed the same. Bush lost two points. Or the randomness inherent in sampling is showing. Can you tell which it is? If you can, can you tell Gallup and Zogby?

Rasmussen 7 Day Tracking (MoE +/-2%)
May 7-13	Kerry 46	Bush 46	Push
May 1-6	Kerry 46	Bush 44	Kerry +2

If there is a pattern here, I certainly cannot see it. The state level polls this week also showed not much movement. Ohio moved a bit towards Kerry, Michigan a bit towards Bush, but by and large things are as they were, with things as contradictory as ever. As mentioned above, Bush's approval numbers have declined to levels seem recently for campaigning incumbents who lost- Ford, Carter, and his father. At the same time, a Pew poll showed that of those backing Kerry, by a two to one margin they said that it was primarily because they were against the President rather than for the Senator; that has only happened twice in recent times, with both similarly 'backed' candidates being defeated (Bob Dole and Mike Dukakis). Last week it looked like the rust belt was swinging towards Kerry, and this week it looks like they are swinging back to a stalemate. For those, like me, who try to write about how the race is going, it would certainly be easier if the dynamics would change a bit more. It is hard to come up with new ways of saying "it is a tight race".

(To those who were hoping for an article with more in-depth polling analysis, I apologize. A confluence of a lack of time and a lack of finding anything particularly different than has been hashed out conspired against your wishes. Next week should bring a more traditional ECB style article. All quotations from the early portion of our nation's history were taken from the entertaining tome "Presidential Campaigns" by Paul F. Boller, Jr.)

This Week's Polling Updates Overview

State	2000 Result	Media Battleground	Current Status
Florida	Bush +0.01	Yes	Tossup
New Mexico	Gore +0.06	Yes	Tossup
Wisconsin	Gore +0.2	Yes	Kerry, Slight
Iowa	Gore +0.3	Yes	Kerry, Slight
Oregon	Gore +0.4	Yes	Kerry, Slight
New Hampshire	Bush +1	Yes	Kerry, Slight
Minnesota	Gore +2	Yes	Kerry, Lean
Ohio	Bush +4	Yes	Kerry, Lean
Nevada	Bush +4	Yes	Bush, Lean
Pennsylvania	Gore +4	Yes	Bush, Slight
Michigan	Gore +5	Yes	Tossup
Arkansas	Bush +5	Yes	Bush, Slight
Arizona	Bush +6	Yes	Bush, Slight
West Virginia	Bush +6	Yes	Bush, Lean
New Jersey	Gore +16	No	Kerry, Lean

	F		Ohio
Electoral Votes: 20
2000 Result
Bush 50%
Gore 46%

Background: Since Truman, Ohio has gone Democrat three times. Carter edged Ford by an extremely slim margin, and Clinton won twice, both times relying on Perot heavily.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
2/7/03	Ohio Poll	Link	RV	4%	Bush	59%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +23
9/19/03	Ohio Poll	Link	RV	4%	Bush	57%	Kerry	38%	Bush +19
3/16/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +4
3/24/04	Ohio Poll	Link	632 RV	3.9%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
4/2/04	Columbus Dispatch	Link	3,344 RV	2%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
5/13/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7

Punditry: This jibes with some of the information I had seen on Rasmussen's combined three state average of Michigan/Pennsylvania/Ohio, which is that Kerry has opened up a bit of a lead. Leaning Towards Kerry. The majority of the lead that Kerry has in Ohio is due to Bush doing subpar among Republicans as compared to other states. Where nationwide Bush's support among Republicans is in the high 80s, in Ohio it is at exactly 80% (while Kerry gets 87% of Democrats). The President needs to correct this to carry the Buckeye state.

	Florida
Electoral Votes: 27
2000 Result
Bush 48.85%
Gore 48.84%

Background: Despite the best efforts of the results-oriented Florida Supreme Court, Bush held on to win the state in 2000, just as every recount conducted afterwards validated. Did you know that since 1948, though, that only three times has Florida gone for the Democrat candidate? Johnson got 51%, Carter got 52%, and Clinton (2nd term) got 48% (with Perot taking 9%). More times than not, the Republican has come closer to 60%. Why Bush underperformed here to such a degree is something his campaign must rectify.

In the first ECB of 2000, Florida was listed as a battleground with a slight advantage to Gore. This time around, it is starting with a slight advantage for Bush. Florida has 6 Democrat Representatives and 18 Republicans. Both chambers of the state legislature are controlled by the Republicans. Republicans control most of the executive branch. However, both Senate seats are held by Democrats. As of Dec. 1, 2003, the state registration was 41.9% Democrat and 38.6% Republican.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
4/29/03	Mason-Dixon	Link	RV	5%	Bush	53%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +15
12/3/03	Schroth & Associates	Link	800 RV	3.5%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	37%	Bush +6
1/15/04	Rasmussen Reports	Link	LV	5%	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Bush +2
2/27/04	Research 2000	Link	500 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	42%	Bush +5
3/4/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
3/4/04	Schroth & Associates	Link	800 RV	3.5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
3/14/04	Rasmussen	Link	400 LV	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
4/1/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	43%	Bush +8
4/13/04	Rasmussen Reports	Link	500 LV	5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
4/21/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
5/9/04	Hamilton, Beattie and Staff (D)	Link	1000 LV	3%	Bush	47%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +3

Punditry: A partisan Democrat poll confirms again that Florida is close, especially when one applies a bit of a discount to the numbers since it is by a partisan firm and released by a partisan group (Americans Coming Together). It gives me no reason to move Florida from Tossup, which jibes with some other recent numbers I have seen but am unable to share at this point.

	F		Oregon
Electoral Votes: 7
2000 Result
Gore 46.96%
Bush 46.52%

Background: The last 10 elections have gone 1-5-4. Without Perot, Clinton would likely have lost his initial run here though. From 1968 on, the only Democrat to break 50% here was Michael Dukakis; Reagan and Nixon each broke 50% in their re-elect.

In early 2000, Oregon was polling strongly for Bush. The left coast influence eventually took hold and turned it into a very even state, and it starts this year as a tossup. Democrats hold 4 out of 5 Representative seats, while the Senate seats are divided, just as control of the state legislative chambers is split. The Democrats hold most of the executive branch positions. Democrats hold a 3% lead in registration, 39%-36%.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
3/5/04	Hibbits	Link	?	?	Bush	40%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +5
4/7/04	University of Oregon	Link	440 RV	4.7%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
4/25/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1
4/29/04	Research2000	Link	500 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2
5/4/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	45%	Push
5/10/04	Research2000	Link	603 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +4
5/10/04	Research2000	Link	603 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
5/10/04	Riley Research	Link	776 LV	3.51%	Bush	44%	Kerry	39%	Bush +5

Punditry: It is deja vu all over again. I get an Oregon poll, I move Oregon over to slight Kerry. I get another Oregon poll that says the exact opposite, and I move it back to tossup. Tossup. This is not a good poll for Bush though, since likely voters are dissatisfied with both international affairs and with the economy. They just haven't warmed up to Kerry. This poll shows Bush ahead, but suggests that if things don't change he won't be. The other polls suggested he isn't ahead but could come back. I guess it is fitting that in this divided nation, even the polls are evenly balanced and opposite.

	Utah
Electoral Votes: 5
2000 Result
Bush 67%
Gore 26%

Background: You have to go back to Johnson to find a Democrat win here. Clinton came in third in his first election. This is Republican territory.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
2/19/04	American Research Group	Link	404 residents	5%	Bush	64%	Kerry	31%	Bush +33
3/25/04	Dan Jones	Link	RV	5%	Bush	66%	Kerry	24%	Bush +42
5/13/04	Dan Jones	Link	923 RV	3.2%	Bush	67%	Kerry	22%	Bush +45

Punditry: Call it a market inefficiency. We still do not have a recent poll for Virginia, but we have had three for Utah. Kerry gets 81% of those who claim to be Democrats-- and he still cannot break 30. Utah is quite Republican, would you not say? Safe for Bush.

	Kentucky
Electoral Votes: 8
2000 Result
Bush 57%
Gore 41%

Background: Johnson, Carter (first time) and Clinton (twice) carried the Bluegrass state. Nixon (twice), Reagan (twice) and both Bushes won here. It is very likely that Clinton would not have carried Kentucky either time if not for Perot. In 1992 Clinton won by three points with Perot capturing 13%, and in 1993 Clinton won by 1% with Perot capturing 9%.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
10/23/03	Associated Press	Link	LV	4%	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	29%	Bush +18
2/4/04	Courier Journal	NA	LV	4%	Bush	55%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +17
2/16/04	Survey USA	Link	LV	3.8%	Bush	57%	Kerry	41%	Bush +16
5/11/04	Bluegrass Poll	Link	811 Adults	3.4%	Bush	52%	Kerry	40%	Bush +12

Punditry: A slight dip in approval for the President, or is it? After all, this is a poll of adults. It does not really matter either way, as Kentucky remains a Strong Advantage for Bush. Kerry has a tough task here, considering that "44 percent of likely voters who had heard or read something about him have developed an unfavorable impression of him. Only 38 percent said their impression of Kerry was favorable, and 18 percent were undecided." He just does not play well with southerners.

	Pennsylvania
Electoral Votes: 21
2000 Result
Gore 51%
Bush 46%

Background: Democrats have won this state 6 of the last 10 elections, with the first of Clinton's wins being attributable to Ross Perot being on the ballot (19%). Typically, the races in the Keystone state have been close. Pennsylvania started as leaning Bush last time, but has drifted to where it has a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans hold a 12-7 advantage in the numbers of Representatives, and hold both Senate seats. They also hold both chambers of the state legislature. The Democrats hold the major executive branch positions except for Attorney General, and have a significant registration advantage (48%-42%).

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
5/13/03	Quinnipiac	Link	952 RV	3.2%	Bush	56%	Kerry	34%	Bush +22
10/9/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,116 RV	3%	Bush	50%	Kerry	43%	Bush +7
11/23/03	Muhlenberg College	Link	430 RV	4.7%	Bush	47%	Kerry	40%	Bush +7
12/14/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,092 RV	3%	Bush	50%	Kerry	42%	Bush +8
2/18/04	Quinnipiac	Ling	1,356 RV	2.7%	Bush	45%	Kerry	50%	Dem +5
2/22/04	Keystone Poll	Link	392 RV	4.9%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Dem +1
3/3/04	Pennsylvania Public Mind	Link	1750 Adults	2.4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
3/11/04	Survey USA	Link	802 RV	3.5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +2
3/15/04	Qunnipiac	Link	1,022 RV (Nader not given as an option)	3	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
3/15/04	Qunnipiac	Link	1,022 RV (Nader given as an option)	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	40%	Bush +4
3/16/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
3/29/04	Keystone Poll	Link	565 RV	4.1%	Bush	46%	Kerry	40%	Bush +6
4/19/04	Quinnipiac	Link	769 RV, Nader not an option	3.5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	42%	Bush +4
4/19/04	Quinnipiac	Link	769 RV, Nader an option	3.5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	39%	Bush +6
4/25/04	Pew Research	Link	867 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	42%	Push
5/3/04	Bennett, Petts, And Blumenthal (D)	Link	LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6

Punditry: A partisan poll thrown into the mix. Partisan polls never change my perceptions of a state, although they can reinforce them. In this case, this partisan poll does neither. Could Bush be trailing in Pennsylvania now? It is possible, although it is also possible he is not. But he was not trailing there on May 3rd. Slight Advantage for Bush.

For those who do not understand what I am talking about when it comes to partisan polling firms, let me explain. Campaigns will poll more frequently than the media. Usually, they do not share the results with the public. Occasionally, they will, when it suits their purpose. Given the random variance inherent in sampling (reflected in the margin of error) will mean that one will have a range of different results if one polls often. Poll often enough and one will even eventually get an outlier-- a poll where the results differ from reality by more than the margin of error. A campaign will be able to choose which result to release, and will generally choose the one that works the best towards energizing the base, encouraging donations, and generating favorable news coverage. As such, when a poll is released by a partisan polling firm (a firm that does polls for a specific party), it should be taken with many grains of salt. That holds true for both Republican and Democrat partisan polls.

	F		Wisconsin
Electoral Votes: 10
2000 Result
Gore 47.83%
Bush 47.61%

Background: I got the *BLEEP* kicked out of me in Wisconsin. Oh wait, sorry. Stripes flashback. Reagan won here twice. Nixon won here three times. LBJ and Carter (against Ford) won here, and then the Democrats have taken the last four elections here. The first of Clinton's wins would have been a loss for him without Perot.


Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
5/03	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	53%	Unnamed Democrat	42%	Bush +11
10/28/03	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Bush +1
1/27/04	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	54%	Dem +16
3/24/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	46%	Kerry +3
3/31/04	Badger Poll	Link	500 Adults, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	41%	Bush +6
3/31/04	Badger Poll	Link	500 Adults, Nader an option	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	45%	Bush +4
4/21/04	Wisconsin Public Radio / St. Norbert College Survey Center	Link	358 RV	5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
4/28/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV, Nader not an option	4.5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +8
4/28/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV, Nader an option	4.5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +4
4/28/04	Badger Poll	Link	511 Adults	4.5%	Bush	50%	Kerry	38%	Bush +12
5/9/04	Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates (D)	Link	?	?	Bush	40%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +9

Punditry: As mentioned in the Pennsylvania Update, I do not pay much attention to the actual results of partisan polls. Campaigns will poll more frequently than the media. Usually, they do not share the results with the public. Occasionally, they will, when it suits their purpose. Given the random variance inherent in sampling (reflected in the margin of error) this will mean that one will have a range of different results if one polls often. Poll often enough and one will even eventually get an outlier-- a poll where the results differ from reality by more than the margin of error. A campaign will be able to choose which result to release, and will generally choose the one that works the best towards energizing the base, encouraging donations, and generating favorable news coverage. As such, when a poll is released by a partisan polling firm (a firm that does polls for a specific party), it should be taken with many grains of salt. This is even more the case when it is a poll by a soft-money third party like Americans Coming Together. Where a party has a vested interest in at least obtaining accurate information for their own use, these third party groups have no interest other than raising money and influencing the public.

That said, completely independent of the Lake, Snell, Perry and Associates poll, I have reconsidered my tossup designation for Wisconsin. While it remains true that the Badger Poll has been accurate in the past, and while true that there were sample problems for the Wisconsin Public Radio poll, and while true that there has yet to be a Wisconsin poll done that I have had no problems with (in either directions), the overall feel of the state seems to favor Kerry very slightly, and since I was going to be doing an update to put in the partisan poll, I'll take the opportunity to gently slide Wisconsin to Slight Advantage For Kerry.

	F		Michigan
Electoral Votes: 17
2000 Result
Gore 51%
Bush 46%

Background: 2-5-3 in the last ten elections. Without Perot, it likely would have been 2-6-2. Since Lyndon Johnson, only Reagan in his re-elect has approached 60%. Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.

Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
5/26/03	Epic/MRA	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	48%	Unnamed Democrat	41%	Bush +7
9/21/03	Mitchell Research	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Unnamed Democrat	49%	Dem +5
12/10/03	Survey USA	Link	724 LV	3.7%	Bush	53%	Kerry	43%	Bush +10
2/3/04	Survey USA	Link	724 LV	3.7%	Bush	46%	Kerry	51%	Dem +5
2/22/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	49%	Dem +4
3/1/04	Mitchell	Link	LV	4%	Bush	40%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +6
3/14/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +4
3/14/04	Marketing Resource Group	Link	600 RV	4.1%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
4/1/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
4/4/04	Survey USA	Link	536 LV	4.3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
5/2/04	Survey USA	Link	536 LV	4.3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4
5/12/04	Mitchell	Link	413 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	40%	Bush +4

Punditry: If you want to check out an example of media bias, check out the article linked for this most recent Mitchell Research poll, keeping in mind that the last Mitchell poll was done in March and showed Kerry up 6. The article is all about how the support for Bush has declined since January, with no mention of the March results. The article's title- "Michigan voters cool off on Bush, war".

Three different polling companies have done multiple Michigan polls in the past few months. In each, the most recent has been more favorable to Bush than the one before; Epic/MRA went from Kerry+4 to Kerry+2, SurveyUSA went from Kerry+10 to Kerry+4, and Mitchell went from Kerry+6 to Bush+4. Michigan is trending in Bush's direction, but for now I am calling it a Tossup.

	Alabama
Electoral Votes: 9
2000 Result
Bush 56%
Gore 42%

Background: Alabama has been a reliable GOP state, only straying twice since 1960; both times it went for a southerner. Jimmy Carter carried the state, as did George Wallace.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
4/27/03	USA Polling Group	Link	RV	5%	Bush	60%	Unnamed Democrat	30	Bush +30
3/18/04	USA Polling Group	Link	405 adults	5%	Bush	59%	Kerry	27%	Bush +32
5/3/04	SurveyUSA	Link	743 LV	3.7%	Bush	55%	Kerry	36%	Bush +19
5/13/04	USA Polling Group	Link	400 Adults	5%	Bush	55%	Kerry	33%	Bush +22

Punditry: I guess I can understand that the details are not important when the President is ahead by 22 points, but was it really too much to ask for the Mobile-Register to include the percentages for each candidate? This is 10 points worse than the previous Alabama poll by the USA Polling group, so there may be some slippage, but how much is hard to say due to the large margin of error and the fact that the poll is of adults and not just registered (or likely) voters. Safe for Bush.

	F		Illinois
Electoral Votes: 21
2000 Result
Gore 55%
Bush 42%

Background: Before Clinton broke through, Republicans had won six straight Presidential contests in Illinois. But Clinton's win against Bush was not because of Perot; he would have carried it without him in the race. And Gore flat out spanked Bush here.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
6/9/03	Chicago Tribune	NA	RV	3.8%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +2
10/20/03	Chicago Tribune	NA	700 RV	3.8%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	49%	Dem +11
1/9/04	Chicago Tribune	Link	RV	3.8%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	48%	Dem +8
3/3/04	Research 2000	Link	500 LV	5%	Bush	36%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +18
3/3/04	Rasmussen	Link	1500 LV	3%	Bush	39%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +15
3/13/04	Copley News Service/Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	39%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +8
5/12/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5

Punditry: This has been an extremely strange election season so far. There is good economic news, and Bush loses ground as people say we are in a recession. Kerry goes on vacation, and his numbers go up. He returns to campaigning and his numbers go down. When Kerry has been sliding in the national polls, the state polls showed him gaining ground. Now, with the national polls showing Bush declining, he has been closing in various states. The last two polls in Illinois show it single digits, which is good enough for a Leaning Towards Kerry designation.

The same poll shows Barack Obama hanging onto his lead over Jack Ryan, although those numbers have yet to be published.

	North Carolina
Electoral Votes: 15
2000 Result
Bush 56%
Gore 43%

Background: Since Lyndon Johnson's win here, only once have the Democrats taken Tar Heel electors. That's a bit deceptive, however, as many times it was extremely close. Carter lost to Reagan here by only two points in that nationwide blowout. Clinton lost two elections by a combined total of 5%. Yet the Clinton losses are also deceptive, in that the margins would have been considerably larger without Perot and his charts. Simply stated, like much of the south North Carolina votes Republican for President, although a southerner atop the ticket can make things interesting; not always though, as Al Gore demonstrated.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
9/16/03	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	51%	Edwards	40%	Bush +11
11/15/03	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	54%	Edwards	42%	Bush +12
11/25/03	Survey USA	Link	563 RV	4.2%	Bush	53%	Kerry	39%	Bush +14
11/25/03	Survey USA	Link	563 RV	4.2%	Bush	52%	Edwards	45%	Bush +7
2/26/04	Survey USA	Link	654 RV	3.9%	Bush	53%	Kerry	42%	Bush +11
3/11/04	Rasmussen	Link	400 LV	3%	Bush	51%	Kerry	43%	Bush +8
4/1/04	Bennett, Petts and Blumenthal (D)	No Link	LV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	44%	Bush +7
5/14/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	41%	Bush +7

Punditry: There has been remarkable consistency within the polls for North Carolina since February. The story here is that if Edwards is added to the ticket, it becomes a one point race. This gain of 6 points in the margin is right in line with the impact of a homestater on the ticket in recent elections that I noted in this article.

So will Kerry choose Edwards? I am not so certain. While he would make North Carolina competitive, does that make him a better choice than a popular Floridian, or Louisianan, or so forth? And if he is worth only 6 in his homestate, does that not imply he would be worth little outside of that state?

In any case, at least until the VP choice is named or there is a marked change in the polls, North Carolina will remain Leaning Towards Bush.

	Texas
Electoral Votes: 34
2000 Result
Bush 58%
Gore 39%

Background: Carter and Humphrey won here, but Texas has become a very foreign land for the Democrat Presidential candidates.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
3/6/04	Scripps Howard Texas Poll	Link	1000 RV	3%	Bush	54%	Kerry	35%	Bush +19
5/15/04	Scripps Howard Texas Poll	Link	1000 RV	3%	Bush	58%	Kerry	29%	Bush +29

Punditry: There simply is nothing interesting to say about the polling results for Texas at this point. Safe for Bush.

Kerry E		F Bush
Safe	Strong	Lean	Slight	Tossup	Slight	Lean	Strong	Safe
DC (3)	DE (3)	MD (10) K48-B43 3/24/04	IA (7) K47-B46 4/21/04	NM (5) B46-K45 4/1/04	AR (6) B45-K45 5/2/04	VA (13) B48-WC33 12/3/03	SC (8) B52-UD36 7/28/03	AK (3)
HI (4)	ME (4) K51-B38 3/4/04	MN (10) K50-B38 4/2/04	NH (4) K49-B45 4/26/04	FL (27) B46-K45 4/21/04	PA (21) B46-K46 4/25/04	GA (15) B47-UD43 2/4/04	MS (6) B49-UD29 12/22/03	ND (3)
RI (4) K53-B31 2/7/04	NY (31) K51-B32 4/22/04	WA (11) K46-B41 4/5/04	WI (10) K50-B42 B50-K38 4/28/04	OR (7) K50-B47 B44-K39 5/10/04	AZ (10) B46-K42 5/4/04	NV (5) B49-K38 3/17/04	SD (3) B50-UD39 2/5/04	NE (5)
MA (12) K54-B32 4/5/04	CT (7) K51-B33 4/27/04	NJ (15) K43-B37 5/4/04	-	MI (17) B44-K40 5/13/04	-	TN (11) B52-K41 3/22/04	KS (6) B57-K39 3/4/04	WY (3)
-	VT (3) K51-B36 5/1/04	CA (55) K46-B45 5/6/04	-	-	-	MO (11) B49-K42 3/23/04	IN (11) B52-K37 3/24/04	MT (3) B52-UD27 5/16/03
-	-	OH (20) K49-B42 5/13/04	-	-	-	CO (9) B49-K44 4/14/04	OK (7) B47-K35 4/1/04	ID (4) B55-K23 3/17/04
-	-	IL (21) K48-B43 5/13/04	-	-	-	WV (5) B49-K45 4/29/04	LA (9) B52-K38 3/28/04	UT (5) B67-K22 5/10/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	NC (15) B47-K41 5/14/04	KY (8) B52-K40 5/11/04	AL (9) B55-K33 5/13/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	TX (34) B58-K29 5/15/04
Totals
Kerry States	Battleground States	Bush States

23	48	142	21	56	37	84	58	69

213	114	211

This week's quiz: Which President was accused by his challenger of leaving town to dedicate a dam every time he was facing difficult or embarrassing questions?

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