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Poll: Support for Bush, Iraq war dropping (Kerry 49% W 44% Nader 6%-W approval @ 46%)
cnn.com ^ | 05/14/04 | cnn.

Posted on 05/14/2004 2:00:26 PM PDT by KQQL

That development appears to be helping Sen. John Kerry, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. He wins the support of 51 percent of likely voters, compared to 46 percent for Bush. In February, Bush was ahead of Kerry by two percentage points.

If Independent Ralph Nader is among the choices, Kerry gets 49 percent, Bush 44 percent and Nader 6 percent.

Bush's overall job approval rating fell from 49 percent to 46 percent since the last CNN/Time poll on April 8, while his disapproval rating rose from 47 percent to 49 percent -- the first time that more people disapproved of Bush's job performance than approved.

The poll was conducted by telephone Wednesday and Thursday.

The margin of error for the total sample of 1,001 adult Americans is 3.1 percentage points

(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004; cnnpollpuuleez; commienews; invalidsource; polls
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To: Saundra Duffy

most americans haven't seen Berg pics or vid of beheading nor will, that means it will not have much effect on the polls.

The only thing most americans are hearing is Berg Dad says,
Nick berg died for W's and Rummey's sin .


121 posted on 05/14/2004 2:46:50 PM PDT by KQQL (@)
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To: NYC Republican

Relax, Bush is going to creme Kerry in November. C'mon, the press is building it up for ratings...even they know it's a one-sided race. Kerry is a straw scarecrow...but not as fibrous!


122 posted on 05/14/2004 2:47:25 PM PDT by mallardx
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To: ambrose

gas prices are getting higher as we write.


123 posted on 05/14/2004 2:47:25 PM PDT by KQQL (@)
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To: Dales

#

makes sense now why ARG poll had w behind in OHIO


124 posted on 05/14/2004 2:48:27 PM PDT by KQQL (@)
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To: ambrose

The July poll was a Newsweek poll with its own separate methodology that they merely commissioned with Gallup's call center (today they commission their polls from Princeton Associates).

I'm tired of telling you that so we should stop debating this topic.


125 posted on 05/14/2004 2:48:39 PM PDT by AntiGuv (When the countdown hits zero - something's gonna happen..)
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To: ambrose
No one is aruging with you that Mondale might have been up by 2pts in ONE or TWO silly polls....but you cannot deny that for the vast majority of polls...throughout 1984...Reagan was beating Mondale very easily.

And that is not the case now. The case now is Kerry is doing very well....and GWB approval ratings are not good for an incumbent. Period.

126 posted on 05/14/2004 2:49:12 PM PDT by FA14
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To: FairOpinion

Which isn't happening here. This is the first poll in a while that has Kerry up over the 50% threshold. This is a slide, an obvious one, and we can no longer deny it.

Bush has been holding onto his 44-46% base. Kerry seems to be getting those undecideds already. This isn't good by any stretch of the imagination.

Look, yeah, I'm worried. I am also disgusted. There has been no defense of this administration, no counter against the vicious attacks launched against it. When it takes two Democrat senators to stand up and attack Kerry or defend Rumsfeld, as has been the case today with Miller and Lieberman it tells me this victory is dangerously close to impossible.

I hear the "it's not serious until September" line until I'm half-asleep. This is a far different time than what we are used to. People are making up their minds already, and sticking to their options. Why else can explain the solid numbers for both candidates?

The campaign better start spending money now. A lot of it, in order to shore up those numbers before this race become less of a competetion than a death watch.


127 posted on 05/14/2004 2:49:14 PM PDT by lavrenti (I'm not bad, just misunderstood.)
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To: KQQL

You have the brainpower of a moth.


128 posted on 05/14/2004 2:49:23 PM PDT by John Lenin (Never trust a traitor)
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To: cohokie
Well, that does show a statistical dead heat at the beginning of 1984, does it not??

It is not at all unusual for an incumbent to trail in polls the year before the election. In fact, it's typical.

129 posted on 05/14/2004 2:50:18 PM PDT by AntiGuv (When the countdown hits zero - something's gonna happen..)
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To: AntiGuv

I think a lot of the old "rule book" on elections went out the window in 1992.

In 2002, Wayne Allard consistently polled in the low 40s against Strickland. Under Poly-Sci 101, that should have made Allard a dead duck with undecideds going to the challenger. Simply didn't work out that way...

Elections in Georgia didn't turn out the way anyone expected either. Even in countries like India, we're seeing elections turning out in ways that no one predicted.

The situation is and will remain fluid.


130 posted on 05/14/2004 2:51:00 PM PDT by ambrose (AP Headline: "Kerry Says His 'Family' Owns SUV, Not He")
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To: CasearianDaoist
I have no idea. I make no claims to scientific "polling". All I do is listen to what people tell me, and its a pretty broad mix of middle America, middle income types. The overall impression I get is that while they're not all that crazy about Kerry, many people have a greater dislike for Bush at this point. Mainly economic issues (gasoline prices) and the Iraq war.

On that latter point, certainly the media is a probable contributor. My guess is that the majority of people I talk to don't get their news from the Internet. Most probably its cable or satellite TV. While FOX news does okay on that score, there are many other competitors who lean the other way.

Then again, even if that's so, what can be done other than spending gobs of cash to counter that negative spin (and pro-Kerry stance) by the lamestream press? I saw recently where the Bush campaign went over the $200 million mark. Will that be enough? That much money to run a Presidential campaign! It's getting scary out there.

131 posted on 05/14/2004 2:51:04 PM PDT by chimera
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To: KQQL
Bush appears to have an advantage over Kerry on the war on terrorism with 49 percent saying he would do a better job, compared to 42 percent for Kerry.

That fat Clymer, Bill Schneider said, about this one: "Kerry almost pulled equal to Bush."

49-42 is "almost equal"?

132 posted on 05/14/2004 2:51:14 PM PDT by jackbill
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To: FairOpinion
Excuse me, but re-read the relevant paragraph. I know what I'm talking about.

The margin of error for the total sample of 1,001 adult Americans is 3.1 percentage points, but that margin varied for questions specifically asked of smaller groups, such as likely voters

Be happy that the margin of error went UP when likely voters were figured, as I've noted.

I would not post disinformation.

I'll assume an apology will be forthcoming and I accept it.

133 posted on 05/14/2004 2:51:34 PM PDT by cyncooper
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To: KQQL

Cavuto's panel ALL agreed OPEC
is fixing to flood the market with oil.


134 posted on 05/14/2004 2:51:35 PM PDT by onyx (Rummy's job is winning the war, not micro-managing some damn prison.)
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To: AntiGuv

The Election is on Nov 2nd. Put your money where your mouth is, I'll take W for a $100.


135 posted on 05/14/2004 2:51:36 PM PDT by John Lenin (Never trust a traitor)
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To: John Lenin

LOL! Feeling feisty today?


136 posted on 05/14/2004 2:52:37 PM PDT by onyx (Rummy's job is winning the war, not micro-managing some damn prison.)
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To: All
I'll say this on gas prices. I think the fact that they most likely will be coming down in Sept will help GWB. (that is, if they don't effect the economy as a whole too much before then.....energy costs are hurting business...but to what extent we haven't seen yet).
137 posted on 05/14/2004 2:52:56 PM PDT by FA14
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To: KQQL
All we must do is get out there and work for relecting our President

Victory will not come easy nor is it assured. We must put work in manning registration desks, walking the neighborhoods, and selling OUR message to the public to counter the Kerry menace casting its shadow on the country

138 posted on 05/14/2004 2:52:58 PM PDT by Rooivalk
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To: onyx

No, I'm just arrogant. LOL


139 posted on 05/14/2004 2:53:38 PM PDT by John Lenin (Never trust a traitor)
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To: John Lenin
My mouth quite clearly said this:

I don't know the answer to that myself and so I have no real opinion on the matter.

Might wanna work on those reading comprehension skills a bit..

140 posted on 05/14/2004 2:53:54 PM PDT by AntiGuv (When the countdown hits zero - something's gonna happen..)
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