It is not at all unusual for an incumbent to trail in polls the year before the election. In fact, it's typical.
The Election is on Nov 2nd. Put your money where your mouth is, I'll take W for a $100.
More from Matthew Dowd
"In addition to approval numbers, pundits and Democrats will place an emphasis on re-elect numbers. Again it is important to have an understanding of historical precedent. Throughout 1995 President Clinton's re-elect hardly ever got above 40%. In a Battleground poll in April, 1995, Clinton's re-elect was 21%. The highest point Clinton's re-elect reached in 1995 was 43% in a poll due in December 1995 for Associated Press. In spite of the low re-elect number, President Clinton ending up winning re-election comfortably.
More recently, in 2002, every major statewide candidate with a re-elect of 45% or higher --- won! The average actual result on election day 2002 showed incumbents finishing 5 to 10 points above their re-elect numbers. It is no longer accurate to suggest that a candidate is vulnerable based solely on an incumbent having a re-elect number under 50%. "
read the whole thing http://www.gop.com/news/read.aspx?ID=3050
also to win Kerry needs Iraq to stay in the tank ... and the economy to go into the tank ... if both of those improve then he is done ...