Rasmussen (5/7): Kerry 46% Bush 44%

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 5/7/04 | Rasmussen

[So Cal Rocket]

Election 2004 Presidential Ballot

Bush 44% Kerry 46% Other 4% Not Sure 5% RasmussenReports.com

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Rasmussen Reports Home

Friday May 07, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows Senator John F. Kerry with 46% of the vote and President George W. Bush each earning 44%.

This survey data is based upon interviews conducted before Friday's upbeat report on job creation. It is not clear what, if any, immediate impact that report will have on the campaign. Both candidates have remained within three percentage points of 45% every night for more than nine weeks.

Supplemental data is available for RR Premium Members. Learn more about Premium Membership

Before today's report, 39% of voters give President Bush good or excellent marks for handling the economy.

Later today, at 3:00 p.m. Eastern, we will release data on public reaction to the news of Iraqi prisoner abuse. Also, we will update our weekly tracking information on whether voters prefer Bush or Kerry on national defense and the economy.

The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

The President's Job Approval rating is now at 51%. While the ballot preference numbers have moved around a bit recently, the Job Approval figures have remained very steady.

The national telephone survey of 1,500 Likely voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports over the past three nights. Margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Methodology

[Cubs Fan]

The fact that an objectively successful president can be losing to a fictional candidate is due to two things

The media has never been more liberal and activist

and

the republicans and Bush are largely incompetent when it comes to political strategy

This Rumsfeld/Bush apologyfest BS is a prime example

[AxelPaulsenJr]

I thought I just saw your poll published with just the opposite results?

[Faithfull]

I agree with your post- the more the Bush Team grovels and apologizes...the weaker they look. President Bush should have turned to the Kind of Jordan yesterday and asked if he would rally the muslim world in their efforts to stop the torture , kidnapping, etc of the men and women who are trying to help them. He should have said something about the double standard and the need for the Arab world to be as outraged at the terrorists for their brutality as they are at a few soldiers for their stupidity.

[So Cal Rocket]

The title of the other thread is incorrect, and the Admin Mod has been requested to fix it.

[SF Republican]

Election 2004

Date Bush Kerry
Today 46 44
May 6 45 45
May 5 43 47
May 4 43 46
May 3 43 46
May 2 45 45
May 1 46 45
Apr 30 45 45
Apr 29 44 46
Apr 28 45 45
Apr 27 47 44
Apr 26 48 44
Apr 25 48 45
Apr 24 47 45
Apr 23 45 45
Apr 22 45 44
Apr 21 45 44
Apr 20 46 44
Apr 19 45 46
Apr 18 45 45
Apr 17 45 44
Apr 16 46 44
Apr 15 46 45
Apr 14 45 47
Apr 13 46 46
Apr 12 46 44
Apr 11 47 44
Apr 10 46 44
Apr 9 44 46
Apr 8 43 46
Apr 7 42 48
Apr 6 44 47
Apr 5 45 47
Apr 4 46 46
Apr 3 46 45
Apr 2 47 44
Apr 1 45 44
Dates are release dates Surveys conducted on preceding three nights

RasmussenReports.com

[LS]

Gee, or it could mean that this poll is as far off today as it was in 2000. Nahhh. Couldn't be that.

[richardtavor]

Why post polls this early? They really don't mean a thing.

[So Cal Rocket]

Yup.. Rassy has screwed the pooch today... The chart on the left side shows Kerry 46, Bush 44... The chart on the right side shows Kerry 44, Bush 46, and the text says "Senator John F. Kerry with 46% of the vote and President George W. Bush each earning 44%.

[AxelPaulsenJr]

I guess it was just wishful thinking. W is in real trouble.

[So Cal Rocket]

Don't lose hope just yet:

Poll	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Spread
RCP Average (5/1 - 5/6)	45.8%	44.3%	4.8%	Bush +1.5
ARG (5/3-6)	44%	45%	4%	Kerry +1
AP/Ipsos (5/3-5)	46%	43%	7%	Bush +3
CNN/Gallup/USAT (5/2-4)	47%	47%	3%	TIE
NBC/WSJ (5/1-5/3)	46%	42%	5%	Bush +4
Quinnipiac (4/26-5/3)	43%	40%	6%	Bush +3
Sacred Heart Univ (4/26-5/1)	52%	46%	2%	Bush +6
CBS News/NYT (4/23-27)	43%	41%	5%	Bush +2
Marist (4/20-23)	47%	43%	5%	Bush +4
Fox News/Op Dyn (4/21-22)	42%	40%	2%	Bush +2
Democracy Corps (4/19-22)	47%	44%	6%	Bush +3
TIPP/IBD (4/14-4/19)	44%	40%	4%	Bush +4
CNN/Gallup/USAT (4/16-4/18)	50%	44%	4%	Bush +6
ABC News/WP (4/15-4/18)	48%	43%	6%	Bush +5
Zogby (4/15-4/17)	44.7%	45.3%	3%	Kerry +0.6
Harris (4/8-15)	46%	43%	8%	Bush +3

[Question_Assumptions]

I'm more interested in Electoral Vote tallies. That's what really counts. How is Bush doing in those swing states?

[Cubs Fan]

Gee, or it could mean that this poll is as far off today as it was in 2000. Nahhh. Couldn't be that.

Maybe you should pull your head out of the sand for a second.

every poll puts the race as close. Its shouldn't be close. it should be a landslide in the making a ala Reagan vs. Mondale.

Kerry is a flip flopping fraud while Bush is a relatively successful incumbent with a good economy who has shown he can lead in a time of war.

Bush should be running away with this. the fact that he is not is indicative of a serious problem.

Wake the frick up.

[So Cal Rocket]

Arkansas - 6 EC Votes
Poll | Date	Sample	MoE	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Spread	2000 Vote
Rasmussen | 5/2	500 L	4.5%	45%	45%	-	TIE	Bush +6
SUSA | 4/14-15	565 L	4.2%	47%	45%	-	Bush +2	-
Ark St. Univ | 3/1-4/8	418 R	5.0%	51%	43%	-	Bush +8	-
Arizona - 10 EC Votes
Poll | Date	Sample	MoE	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Spread	2000 Vote
ASU | 4/23-26	410 R	4.8%	41%	38%	-	Bush +3	Bush +6
SUSA | 3/17-18	634 L	4.0%	51%	42%	-	Bush +9	-
ASU | 2/19-22	430 R	4.7%	44%	46%	-	Kerry +2	-
SUSA | 2/18-19	534 R	4.3%	52%	44%	-	Bush +8	-
Florida - 27 EC Votes
Poll | Date	Sample	MoE	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Spread	2000 Vote
ARG |4/18-21	600 L	4.0%	46%	45%	3%	Bush +1	Bush +0.01
Rasmusssen | 4/13	500 L	4.5%	46%	47%	-	Kerry +1	-
Tampa Trib/Chan 8 | 3/30-4/1	625 R	4.0%	51%	43%	-	Bush +8	-
Rasmusssen | 3/1-13	400 L	5.0%	45%	48%	-	Kerry +3	-
Miami Herald | 3/3-4	800 R	3.5%	43%	49%	3%	Kerry +6	-
ARG | 3/3-4	600 L	4.0%	44%	45%	4%	Kerry +1	-
Iowa - 7 EC Votes
Poll | Date	Sample	MoE	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Spread	2000 Vote
ARG | 4/18-21	600 L	4.0%	46%	47%	3%	Kerry +1	Gore +1
Rasmussen | 3/23	500 L	4.5%	41%	51%	-	Kerry +10	-
DM Register | 2/7-11	800 R	3.5%	42%	49%	-	Kerry +7	-
Maine - 4 EC Votes
Poll | Date	Sample	MoE	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Spread	2000 Vote
Strategic Mktg Svs| 2/28-3/3	400 L	4.9%	38%	51%	4%	Kerry +13	Gore +5
Michigan - 17 EC Votes
Poll | Date	Sample	MoE	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Spread	2000 Vote
SUSA | 4/30 -5/2	536 L	4.3%	43%	47%	-	Kerry +4	Gore +5
SUSA | 4/2 -4/4	536 L	4.3%	41%	51%	-	Kerry +10	-
EPIC/MRA | 3/28-4/1	600 L	4.0%	43%	45%	3%	Kerry +2	-
Rasmussen | 3/14-16	500 L	4.5%	44%	48%	-	Kerry +4	-
MRG | 3/8-14	600 R	4.1%	47%	45%	-	Bush +2	-
EPIC/MRA | 2/22-25	600 L	4.0%	44%	49%	-	Kerry +5	-
SUSA | 1/31-2/2	724 R	3.7%	46%	51%	-	Kerry +5	-
Minnesota - 10 EC Votes
Poll | Date	Sample	MoE	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Spread	2000 Vote
Star-Tribune | 3/28-31	562 L	4.1%	38%	50%	2%	Kerry +12	Gore +2
Rasmussen | 3/23	500 L	4.5%	44%	47%	-	Kerry +3	-
Missouri - 11 EC Votes
Poll | Date	Sample	MoE	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Spread	2000 Vote
Rasmussen | 3/23	500 L	4.5%	49%	42%	-	Bush +7	Bush +4
Nevada - 5 EC Votes
Poll | Date	Sample	MoE	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Spread	2000 Vote
Mason-Dixon | 3/15-17	625 R	4.0%	49%	38%	4%	Bush +11	Bush +4
SUSA | 2/11-12	505 R	4.5%	49%	48%	-	Bush +1	-
New Hampshire - 4 EC Votes
Poll | Date	Sample	MoE	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Spread	2000 Vote
Granite St. | 4/19-26	491 L	4.4%	45%	49%	2%	Kerry +4	Bush +1
Rasmussen | 4/21	500 L	4.5%	45%	47%	-	Kerry +2	-
ARG | 3/30-4/1	600 L	4.0%	48%	43%	3%	Bush +5	-
ARG | 3/15-18	463 R	4.6%	45%	39%	8%	Bush +6	-
Granite St. | 2/4-12	511 R	4.3%	38%	53%	-	Kerry +15	-
New Mexico - 5 EC Votes
Poll | Date	Sample	MoE	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Spread	2000 Vote
ARG | 3/30-4/1	600 L	4.0%	46%	45%	3%	Bush +1	Gore +.06
Ohio - 20 EC Votes
Poll | Date	Sample	MoE	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Spread	2000 Vote
Columbus Dispatch	3,344 R	2.0%	45%	43%	3%	Bush +2	Bush +4
Ohio Poll | 3/10-22	632 R	3.9%	44%	46%	5%	Kerry +2	-
Rasmussen | 3/14-16	500 L	4.5%	41%	45%	-	Kerry +4	-
Oregon - 7 EC Votes
Poll | Date	Sample	MoE	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Spread	2000 Vote
Research 2000 | 4/25-4/29	600 L	4.0%	46%	48%	-	Kerry +2	Gore +0.4
Rasmussen | 4/25	500 L	4.5%	43%	43%	8%	TIE	-
OSU | 3/19-4/7	444 R	4.7%	47%	45%	1%	Bush +2	-
The Oregonian | 3/4	400 R	5.0%	40%	45%	5%	Kerry +5	-
Pennsylvania - 21 EC Votes
Poll | Date	Sample	MoE	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Spread	2000 Vote
Pew | 4/16-25	867 R	4.0%	42%	42%	5%	TIE	Gore +5
Quinnipiac | 4/13-19	769 R	3.5%	45%	39%	8%	Bush +6	-
Keystone | 3/25-29	565 R	4.5%	46%	40%	3%	Bush +6	-
Rasmussen | 3/14-16	500 LR	4.5%	44%	45%	-	Kerry +1	-
Quinnipiac | 3/9-15	1,022 R	3.1%	44%	40%	7%	Bush +4	-
SUSA | 3/8-10	802 R	3.5%	47%	49%	-	Kerry +2	-
Mansfield U | 2/17-3/3	1,750 R	2.4%	45%	47%	-	Kerry +2	-
Keystone | 2/19-22	532 R	4.2%	46%	47%	-	Kerry +1	-
Washington - 11 EC Votes
Poll | Date	Sample	MoE	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Spread	2000 Vote
Moore (GOP) | 4/18-19	500 R	5.0%	41%	45%	-	Kerry +4	Gore +5
Elway Poll | 4/2-5	405 R	5.0%	41%	46%	-	Kerry +5	-
Rasmussen | 3/25	500 L	4.5%	44%	50%	-	Kerry +6	-
SUSA | 3/21-23	698 L	3.2%	43%	47%	-	Kerry +4	-
SUSA | 2/4-5	975 R	3.2%	43%	55%	-	Kerry +12	-
Wisconsin - 10 EC Votes
Poll | Date	Sample	MoE	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Spread	2000 Vote
Badger | 4/20-28	511 R	4.0%	50%	38%	6%	Bush +12	Gore +0.2
Rasmussen | 4/28	500 L	4.5%	41%	45%	8%	Kerry +4	-
St. Norbert/WPR | 4/14-21	358 R	5.0%	42%	49%	7%	Kerry +7	-
Badger | 3/23-31	500 R	4.0%	47%	41%	5%	Bush +6	-
ARG | 3/23-25	600 L	4.0%	43%	46%	4%	Kerry +3	-
West Virginia - 5 EC Votes
Poll | Date	Sample	MoE	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Spread	2000 Vote
Rasmussen | 4/15	500 L	4.5%	46%	41%	-	Bush +5	Bush +6
ARG | 3/23-24	600 L	4.0%	46%	46%	2%	TIE	-

Key: R = Registered Voters, L = Likely Voters

[LibLieSlayer]

The latest FoxNews/Dynamics poll shows Bush leading by 3 points or more in the majority of "battle-ground" States. Brit Hume stated this last night.

It also has Bush up nationally by 3.

LLS

[LS]

You must be joking. Talk about a head up an ass. How in the hell Bush should be miles ahead during a WAR in which 40% of the country is doing everything it can to ensure our DEFEAT is beyond me.

Given the constant drumbeat of media Bush bashing, it's remarkable that he still LEADS in most polls. Only Ras is the outlier---but hey, you want to believe Ras, go right ahead.

[Owen]

Altogether now:

The absolute value of poll results have no meaning. They are dependent on the pollster's selection of how to target his sampling -- i.e., by party affiliation, what zip codes he makes phone calls to, what gender, what his definition is of likely voter. All those parameters differ from pollster to pollster.

The absolute measure doesn't matter because no one knows who is sampline correctly. What *does* matter is the sequential results. What was the same pollster's result a week ago or two weeks ago or a month ago vs today's. That can tell you if Bush's tactics or events that occur have a positive impact on voter opinion or not. It will tell us the trends.

At this point, with sampling mixtures all different among different pollsters, the only data we can get from them of value is trends, not absolute measures.

[LS]

I'm going to tell you that it's a miracle Bush is slightly ahead.

dumbass

[Cubs Fan]

Yeah you probably DO think the republicans are brilliant political strategists.