The last governor's race gives us a good clue. Though Republicans are the majority party, Independents are a close second, and Democrats a near third. And though Republicans are generally popular with the electorate, Bush and *his* war are not.
Posted on 04/30/2004 3:47:26 PM PDT by DM1
DURHAM, N.H. -- New Hampshire residents are closely split on who they plan to vote for in the nest presidential election.
N.H. Battleground State In Election
A new poll will be released next week by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Pollster Andy Smith said the poll will show Sen. John Kerry with a slim lead over President George W. Bush, but there are signs that could change.
Since February, the president's approval ratings have remained in the high 40s, but Kerry's numbers dropped dramatically over the last two months, from 57 to 46 percent. Smith said he's not surprised by the shift.
"The afterglow from the Democratic primary is wearing off," Smith said. "It's no longer just a Democratic message. Secondly, Bush has aired many TV ads in the state."
Both Bush and Kerry have spent millions of dollars on TV ads across the country. Smith said the numbers indicate Bush is currently stronger on economic issues.
"That's good news for the president, because pocketbook issues override most other things," Smith said.
But the numbers also indicate Bush is losing ground on foreign policy and leaving an opening for the Massachusetts Democrat.
"If Iraq continues to be an open sore, if there are no fixes soon, this could be the issue where John Kerry can make headway into," Smith said.
Smith said the election in New Hampshire could hinge on turnout election, with the two candidates separated by just a couple of points.
"I'd say we're definitely still a battleground state, it's still close, and John Kerry still leads," Smith said.
The UNH Survey Center will release the results of its presidential poll early next week.
The last governor's race gives us a good clue. Though Republicans are the majority party, Independents are a close second, and Democrats a near third. And though Republicans are generally popular with the electorate, Bush and *his* war are not.
Of course. But there are always those on the cutting edge blazing the paths for others to follow. Arlen Specter's recent squeaker makes it clear how important even a handful of dedicated and active voters can be, and now that the worst of this year's late Winter and early Spring weather is out of the way, that number will hopefully continue to grow even before the entire 20K sign on and begin their move.
And, of course there are some who are and have been NH residents all along, who have the experience and background as to how the game has been played in NH up to now. I believe that's about to change.
Get more sticks. And swing them more often.
Get a couple for friends, too. Reinforcements are coming.
Just black ones. Very plain, and without zippers.
Unfortunately Bush will drop a bit more in the polls because of his Iraqi policies.
If they win, look for Hillary to never travel with Kerry.
Actually, a preannounced public deal between presidential candidate and his VP that the president intends to serve only one term, then to hand the candidacy to the VP in the next elaction 4 years hence would probably be a smart and popular move, if the VP were a single term senator who had held no previous political office. That'd gain the VP candidate at least some appearance of global foreign policy/foreign relations experience, especially if there was also considerable sympathy for the candidate by virtue of her being a recent widow.
Unfortunately Bush will drop a bit more in the polls because of his Iraqi policies.
Maybe the illegal votes he's depending on from unregistered Mexican citizens will save him.
The honeymoon would seem to be over for JFK.
I will vote for him but I no longer expect him to win. All those fine words in the speeches mean nothing if you don't deliver. "Overwhelming force" was promised but now the terrorists have won the first battle for Fallujah because Bush et. al. lost their nerve.
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