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2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
TradeSports.com ^
| Monday, April 26, 2004
| Momaw Nadon
Posted on 04/26/2004 9:33:05 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
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I went to
TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 314 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 224 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 284.48 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
To: Momaw Nadon
2
posted on
04/26/2004 9:33:30 AM PDT
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: Momaw Nadon
Wisconsin is at 50.0% today.
The bid price is 50.0 and the ask price is 55.0. These average to 52.5.
Thus, the tie goes to President Bush.
3
posted on
04/26/2004 9:33:54 AM PDT
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: Momaw Nadon
4
posted on
04/26/2004 9:34:45 AM PDT
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: Momaw Nadon
Wisconsin is irrelevant. What these polls keep telling us is that Kerry can not possibly get 270 electoral votes unless he wins Florida.
5
posted on
04/26/2004 9:40:15 AM PDT
by
presidio9
(Rangers Lead The Way!)
To: Momaw Nadon
This is before Charlie Gibson and GMA. Kerry is imploding. I love it when a plan comes together.
6
posted on
04/26/2004 9:41:06 AM PDT
by
LS
(CNN is the Amtrak of news.)
To: Momaw Nadon
We gained 10! Go Bush!!!!
To: presidio9
or he grabs PA and OH probably more realistic than him grabbing FL
8
posted on
04/26/2004 9:52:27 AM PDT
by
DM1
To: Momaw Nadon
Let's see ... I count 17 states for Kerry, plus D.C.
That leaves 33 for Bush.
Looks good to me.
9
posted on
04/26/2004 9:55:30 AM PDT
by
shekkian
To: presidio9
You're right. It seems that this election will come down to three states: Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Whichever candidate takes two out of three will probably win.
10
posted on
04/26/2004 9:57:12 AM PDT
by
p. henry
To: p. henry
California is a real piece of work hey p. henry. Maybe Arnie will help out here.
11
posted on
04/26/2004 10:00:40 AM PDT
by
Iberian
To: p. henry
Do the math. If Bush wins Florida, it makes no difference if Kerry takes Pennsylvania AND Ohio. If all other states stay in line, Bush still wins 273 to 265.
12
posted on
04/26/2004 10:01:52 AM PDT
by
presidio9
(Rangers Lead The Way!)
To: Momaw Nadon
index !
13
posted on
04/26/2004 10:02:41 AM PDT
by
smonk
To: LS
Kerry's implosion is very bad news. He can still be replaced before the convention.
14
posted on
04/26/2004 10:14:17 AM PDT
by
Arkie2
To: presidio9
What these polls keep telling us is that Kerry can not possibly get 270 electoral votes unless he wins Florida. After the Great Fiasco of 2000, that makes me extremely nervous.
15
posted on
04/26/2004 10:17:57 AM PDT
by
Allegra
(Badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, MUSHROOM!)
To: Arkie2
Kerry's implosion is very bad news. He can still be replaced before the convention. Kerry can be replaced AFTER the convention too. Remember, rules do not apply to democrats.
16
posted on
04/26/2004 10:18:11 AM PDT
by
PetroniDE
(Kitty Is My Master - I Do What She Says)
To: Momaw Nadon
To: DM1
Bush has to win Ohio. No republican has ever won the election without Ohio I believe.
18
posted on
04/26/2004 10:44:07 AM PDT
by
RetiredArmy
(We'll put a boot in your ass, it's the American Way! Toby Keith)
To: Momaw Nadon
Don't you have the colors backwards?
I know that RED should go with commies, but I think precident
has already been forged in stone.
Dubya won the "red states" in the last election.
Red=Right=Rational=Reliable=Republican
bLue(aka Lavender)=Leftist=Loony=Liberal=Lying=>democRAT
To: FL_engineer
IMHO RED should be for commies and PINKOS.
President Bush is a TRUE BLUE American.
20
posted on
04/26/2004 10:58:53 AM PDT
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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