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Bush's Popularity Surprises Pollsters
Newsmax ^ | 4/23/04

Posted on 04/23/2004 9:39:19 AM PDT by areafiftyone

WASHINGTON – In Maryland, pollster Patrick Gonzales is surprised that Democrat John Kerry isn't farther ahead in such a solidly Democrat state. In New Hampshire, Republican Tom Rath is encouraged that President Bush has retained his footing in a state where he was pummeled relentlessly during the Democrat primaries.

Bush can tick off a number of states where polls now show him to be on better footing than he was at the end of his November 2000 showdown with Al Gore. But Kerry's camp says that's no cause for Democrats to be concerned. In almost every state, according to Kerry's campaign, Bush was doing better at this point in 2000 than he is this time around.

"Just because Bush is doing better does not mean he's going to win," said independent pollster Ed Sarpolus in Michigan, where Bush has held his ground against Kerry despite lukewarm job and favorability ratings.

"You have to understand that for the last 30 days, John Kerry's been invisible," Sarpolus said, noting that the public focus on Kerry dropped off sharply after his much-watched march to the Democrat presidential nomination. At the same time, he added, Bush was unleashing a barrage of TV ads that battered Kerry and promoted his own policies.

Nonetheless, there is some surprise that Kerry isn't doing better at this point in some states.

In reliably Democrat Maryland, Kerry had a slight lead in the latest poll.

"This is a state that Gore won by 17 points," said Gonzales, an independent pollster whose survey gave Kerry a 5-point edge. "I would expect Kerry at this point to be doing better."

Gonzales predicted Bush has hit his high-water mark in the state, though, and said he expected Democrats to close ranks behind Kerry once they get to know him better.

"Fundamentally, I think it is a case that people don't know enough about him," Gonzales said.

In New Jersey, where Gore thumped Bush by 16 points four years ago, the candidates are in a virtual tie this time.

"We are a 9/11 state," said David Rebovich, a political science professor at Rider University in Lawrenceville, N.J., referring to those who lost their lives in the World Trade Center attacks. "I think the president benefits residually from New Jerseyans rallying around the president."

It's the Economy, Stupid

Furthermore, he said, voters in a state so closely tied to Wall Street "may cut Bush some slack" because of the improving economy. "There may be some trepidation that John Kerry's economic policies will rescind tax cuts and scare Wall Street and affect people's jobs."

Why Won't Media Establishment Say
'Abortion Control' and 'Gun Rights'?

Despite all that, though, Rebovich believes New Jersey voters are likely to fall in behind a New England liberal when they consider the candidates' stances on issues such as gun control, abortion rights and the environment.

Bush has been slightly ahead in national polls, a strong standing that is showing up in some key swing states like New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. But with the nation narrowly divided and the polls relatively close, outside events such as Iraq and the economy are influencing which candidate has the upper hand in a given week.

In some states, the latest numbers look just as tight as the 2000 election results. In Florida, for example, where the 2000 vote was so close it took the Supreme Court to decide the winner, Bush and Kerry were neck-and-neck in a survey released Thursday. In Iowa, where Gore edged Bush by 1 point four years ago, it's tight again. A Los Angeles Times poll released Friday showed Kerry leading Bush by 10 points in California, a slightly smaller margin than the 12 points by which Gore carried the state in 2000.

Kerry campaign pollster Mark Mellman cautions against focusing too closely on state-by-state polling results this early in the campaign. In New Jersey, for example, Bush had a slight edge on Gore at the start of May 2000, he said.

That month, Bush had the edge on Gore in Michigan but lost to the Democrat by 5 points in November. At this point, Bush and Kerry are neck-and-neck in the state.

"That strikes me as very, very good news for Kerry in the context of the volume of ads that President Bush has been doing over the last six weeks," said Ken Brock, a Democrat consultant in Michigan. "He's really poured it on."

If Kerry can match Bush's advertising down the home stretch, Brock predicted, "he'll begin to take back some of what he may have lost."

In New Hampshire, where Bush edged Gore by 1 point in 2000, Bush now has a slight edge despite the pounding he took during the run-up to the state's leadoff Democrat primaries.

"What's significant is that Bush has retained his footing," says Rath, a state Republican Party leader. "This state was really the belly of the beast. He got pummeled here for 10 months. ... For Bush to have come back is good."

Bush has edged ahead of Kerry in Pennsylvania, a critical swing state that Gore won by 5 points in 2000.

Mike Young, managing director of Madonna Young Opinion Research, attributes Bush's gains to his "persistent presence" in the state. Since taking office, Bush has visited Pennsylvania more frequently than any other state; his 27th trip was Monday.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004; gwb2004; polls
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1 posted on 04/23/2004 9:39:19 AM PDT by areafiftyone
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To: areafiftyone
Note to Kerry: Bush is going to win.
2 posted on 04/23/2004 9:40:27 AM PDT by sarasota
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To: sarasota
Most pollsters are like the media: liberal shills who wish to see their candidate ahead and can't figure out why he's not winning! But, we the American public shouldn't be able to determine their partiality and that is what fries me about them!
3 posted on 04/23/2004 9:43:18 AM PDT by princess leah
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To: princess leah
Bush's Popularity Surprises Pollsters

...because they wouldn't know an honest, genuine human being if he handed them their a$$es on a silver platter. (Which will happen very soon now.)

4 posted on 04/23/2004 9:46:11 AM PDT by 50sDad ( ST3d - Star Trek Tri-D Chess! http://my.oh.voyager.net/~abartmes)
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To: areafiftyone


5 posted on 04/23/2004 9:47:00 AM PDT by Joe Brower (The Constitution defines Conservatism.)
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To: areafiftyone
Be sure to hit this online poll:

http://www.politics1.com/poll.htm

 
6 posted on 04/23/2004 9:47:21 AM PDT by counterpunch (<-CLICK HERE for my CARTOONS)
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To: Joe Brower
I like that!!
7 posted on 04/23/2004 9:47:43 AM PDT by areafiftyone (Democrats = the hamster is dead but the wheel is still spinning)
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To: areafiftyone
I think I was at a politcal low last week. I was convinced that Kerry would steamroll Bush at the rate things were going.

I suppose this illustrates just how impotent Kerry is.

This is VERY ENCOURAGING!
8 posted on 04/23/2004 9:47:52 AM PDT by Rutles4Ever
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To: counterpunch
I did that this morning about 10 times. HEH HEH!!! But hey why stop now? ;-)
9 posted on 04/23/2004 9:48:22 AM PDT by areafiftyone (Democrats = the hamster is dead but the wheel is still spinning)
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To: areafiftyone
bump
10 posted on 04/23/2004 9:48:54 AM PDT by facedown (Armed in the Heartland)
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To: Rutles4Ever
``Fundamentally, I think it is a case that people don't know enough about him,'' Gonzales said.

By all means, get to know Kerry. The more you know the less you like.

11 posted on 04/23/2004 9:49:42 AM PDT by rhombus
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To: rhombus
LOL - What an excuse - Face it - Kerry is boring no matter how you slice or dice it. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZz
12 posted on 04/23/2004 9:53:24 AM PDT by areafiftyone (Democrats = the hamster is dead but the wheel is still spinning)
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To: areafiftyone
""You have to understand that for the last 30 days, John Kerry's been invisible," Sarpolus said,"

What is this guy smoking? Ghon Qerry has been on every national newscast on the fraudcast networks every single day, and on a solid hour with Russert, and on CNN and PMSNBC for HOURS each day. The newsmags have big stories on him. He's in every paper in the country every day.

Invisible? I ---- Don't ----- Think ----- So.

Michael

13 posted on 04/23/2004 9:58:54 AM PDT by Wright is right! (It's amazing how fun times when you're having flies.)
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To: areafiftyone
I really like the gun rights/abortion control wording. This terminology will cause the heads of my liberal colleagues to explode.
14 posted on 04/23/2004 10:07:40 AM PDT by macrahanish #1
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To: Wright is right!
But, even with all the coverage, he is still invisible. He makes Al Gore look like a font of charisma.
15 posted on 04/23/2004 10:08:33 AM PDT by Calvin Coolidge
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To: Rutles4Ever; rhombus; areafiftyone
See the latest on Kerry:

Kerry Disowns His SUVs; NewsMax Has the Photos

16 posted on 04/23/2004 10:13:12 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (The terrorists and their supporters declared war on the United States - and war is what they got!!!!)
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To: areafiftyone
Bush's Popularity Surprises Disappoints Pollsters
17 posted on 04/23/2004 10:19:07 AM PDT by independentmind
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To: areafiftyone
We are winning ~ the bad guys are losing ~ trolls, terrorists, democrats and the mainstream media are sad ~ very sad!

~~ Bush/Cheney 2004 ~~

18 posted on 04/23/2004 10:22:05 AM PDT by blackie (Be Well~Be Armed~Be Safe~Molon Labe!)
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To: Wright is right!
That is their story and they are sticking to it. They are also claiming that Kerry is "relatively unknown" despite three straight months of free advertising by every liberal tv and cable channel, newspaper, and magazine in the U.S.

The truth is that people DO know him and they don't like what they see.
19 posted on 04/23/2004 10:31:19 AM PDT by Blood of Tyrants (Even if the government took all your earnings, you wouldn't be, in its eyes, a slave.)
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To: areafiftyone
A few days ago CNN's 'rat pollster Bill Schneider was trying to construct a very tortured scenario in which Kerry could win. Rube Goldberg would have liked it.
20 posted on 04/23/2004 10:41:21 AM PDT by Semper Paratus
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