(Battleground) Poll: (President) Bush Vulnerable, but Kerry Unknown

Yahoo! News ^ | 4/14/04 | Will Lester - AP

[NormsRevenge]

WASHINGTON -

President Bush (news - web sites) appears vulnerable on several fronts, including support for whether he deserves re-election and worries about the country's direction, but Democratic rival John Kerry (news - web sites) has been unable to capitalize on those weaknesses, a bipartisan poll suggests.

The result six months before the Nov. 2 presidential election is a tight race between a vulnerable incumbent and a challenger who has not yet defined himself, according to the Battleground 2004 poll released Wednesday. The survey was conducted by Republican pollster Ed Goeas and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake.

Bush and Kerry were virtually tied in the survey, with Kerry at 49 percent support and Bush at 48 percent.

The poll found Bush retains an advantage on personal qualities like strong leadership, and on such issues as his handling of the campaign against terrorism and the war in Iraq (news - web sites). Kerry holds a slight edge on such qualities as compassion, and leads Bush on handling the economy and health care.

Both have similar favorable ratings, with slightly more than half of voters viewing each favorably.

But on the intensity of those feelings, Bush has the advantage, with 38 percent saying they feel strongly for Bush and 26 percent saying the same about Kerry.

That intensity of feeling helps Bush stay close to Kerry despite mixed feelings about his re-election and Kerry's advantage on the economy, health care and Social Security (news - web sites).

"With advantages like this, we should be way ahead," Lake said. "How do we translate Kerry's issue advantages into a lead against Bush?"

The Battleground Poll asked open-ended questions, such as why voters thought the country was either headed in the right direction or down the wrong track.

Those who said the country was headed in the right direction were most likely to say the economy was improving and that Bush is a strong leader doing a good job.

Those who said the country was on the wrong track were most likely to mention the war and unemployment levels.

The poll was taken before the recent spike in violence in Iraq, which has led to a drop in some polls in the public's approval of Bush's handling of that situation.

GOP pollster Goeas said it's important for Bush's re-election campaign to define Kerry and turn his softer supporters into opponents. In some other polls, as many as four in 10 people say they don't know enough about Kerry to decide how they feel about him.

The Battleground 2004 poll highlights several groups that are key "swing voter" groups — those not firmly committed to either candidate — such as Hispanics, white seniors, white suburban women, married women and Catholics, Goeas said.

Kerry's task is to spell out his positions on the economy and Iraq, while making progress introducing himself to voters, Lake said.

"He's had an interrupted dialogue with voters," she said, noting his recent shoulder surgery and vacation. "And he's had the distraction of the war."

The poll of 1,000 likely voters was taken from March 28-31 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

___

On the Net:

Battleground 2004 poll: http://www.tarrance.com

[rrrod]

The real outrage is the elected republicans just sitting back and letting the RATS say and do anything!

[Integrityrocks]

I agree with you. I just don't get it. Especially these economic numbers that pull Kerry's lead. The Bush campaign has got to start bombardment in the media of how great the economy is going.

[rrrod]

I hate say this but republicans are acting like its 96 all over again

[LdSentinal]

Bush and Kerry were virtually tied in the survey, with Kerry at 49 percent support and Bush at 48 percent.

And where is Ralph Nader in this poll?

[NormsRevenge]

Nader support is minimal , 2 % at best, he is just too hung out there.

[bootyist-monk]

My sense is that Nader only got into the race to fire up the Democrats base and the ABB crowd. Within a few months, he'll be on the same stage with Kerry pledging unity and support, and urging his people to do the same. Crass political ploy, pure and simple.

[TomEwall]

If you read deeper into the poll results, it looks promising for Bush. They point out that Bush's job approval numbers have gone down only slightly since their last poll, despite the Democratic primaries and recent events. When you combine his personal likeability and job approval numbers, he is above the mark traditionally need to obtain re-election.

Another statistic they quoted many times was that historically the Democrats need to have a 7% lead on the question of who will lead America into prosperity. While Kerry does have exactly a 7% lead on this question amongst all surveyed, the lead evaporates to a tie when only likely voters are considered.

In the battleground states, Bush has a significant lead on terrioism/war in Iraq, so this issue won't help Kerry. On the economic front, the news looks to be very good, and likely to continue that way, so that should help among the surprisingly large number of people who still feel the economy is not doing well. That is, as time goes on, these people should be changing their mind as more good economic news comes out.

I think Kerry's best, and only chance, lies in the area of someone unforeseen event, such as the recent outbreak in Iraq.

[zeebee]

I may be a loner in this regard, but I think Nader has always liked Bush and is in there to help him.

[Coop]

I'm surprised there was no mention here of the Jewish vote. I just got done reading an article about Kerry's bowing to the U.N., an organization that historically spits upon Israel. I just don't think Kerry is going to do as well among Jewish voters as Gore or Clinton did.

[Two-Bits]

Hi, Please take a moment and either call the President or send an email to let him know we, the American people back him. Also, if you could just tell one person to do the same and ask them to tell another, than God willing, we will flood the switchboard with calls and faxes like they have never seem. This is one way we can take it direct to the President and it can not be misled by the media or stupid polls.....
Please call or email and God bless:
Comments: 202-456-1111 Switchboard: 202-456-1414 FAX: 202-456-2461 E-Mail President George W. Bush: president@whitehouse.gov Vice President Richard Cheney: vice.president@whitehouse.gov

[jerry639]

I placed a call to the White House this morning and then followed it up with an email this afternoon, expressing my support for President Bush on Iraq and his news conference last night. Could not get through to a live person, when I called the White House, so I left a message. The phones must be very busy there today.
Bush/Cheney in 2004

[DrDeb]

NOW FOR THE REST OF THE STORY . . .


HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCH-UP

Unaided Ballot: Bush 42.9% Kerry 39.5% Nader 1.1% Other 1.3%
[Likely Voters: Bush 50% Kerry 47%]

Aided Ballot: Bush 48% Kerry 49%
[Likely Voters: Bush 51% Kerry 49%]

The "Unaided Ballot" is considered the most PREDICTIVE of eventual voter behavior!!!


PERSONAL APPROVAL

Currently, 64% of voters approve of the president personally while 27% disapprove (+37) -- within the MOE of September's polling results.

Battleground Poll Analysis of this factor:

"A segmentation of these two measurements show why, despite the polarization of the American Electorate, GWB has every potential to move a majority to vote for his reelection. Currently, 49% of the electorate are "consistent approvers" of GWB, meaning these voters both approve of the job the President is doing and approve of the President personally. Only 26% of the electorate are "consistent disapprovers" of GWB, meaning they both disapprove of the job he is doing and disapprove of the President personally.

This personal approval of the President, even among some Kerry voters and undecided voters, shows the real permanency of his image that took shape in the months immediately after 9/11. Voters' image of GWB the person, his character and qualities, may be the factor that allows him to reach out and secure a majority of the vote and a second term as President"

[pawdoggie]

And where is Ralph Nader in this poll? Personally, I'm glad that Nader doesn't appear in this poll. I have a feeling he will drop out anyway (especially if he appears to be skewing the election toward Bush), after he forces Kerry to move further to the Left on the environment. This time I think that Ralphie boy is getting the message: if he wants to save his legacy as a great reformer/ environmentalist/ consumer advocate, he'd better drop out before the general election.