[TomEwall]

If you read deeper into the poll results, it looks promising for Bush. They point out that Bush's job approval numbers have gone down only slightly since their last poll, despite the Democratic primaries and recent events. When you combine his personal likeability and job approval numbers, he is above the mark traditionally need to obtain re-election.

Another statistic they quoted many times was that historically the Democrats need to have a 7% lead on the question of who will lead America into prosperity. While Kerry does have exactly a 7% lead on this question amongst all surveyed, the lead evaporates to a tie when only likely voters are considered.

In the battleground states, Bush has a significant lead on terrioism/war in Iraq, so this issue won't help Kerry. On the economic front, the news looks to be very good, and likely to continue that way, so that should help among the surprisingly large number of people who still feel the economy is not doing well. That is, as time goes on, these people should be changing their mind as more good economic news comes out.

I think Kerry's best, and only chance, lies in the area of someone unforeseen event, such as the recent outbreak in Iraq.

[Coop]

I'm surprised there was no mention here of the Jewish vote. I just got done reading an article about Kerry's bowing to the U.N., an organization that historically spits upon Israel. I just don't think Kerry is going to do as well among Jewish voters as Gore or Clinton did.