Posted on 04/13/2004 5:44:22 AM PDT by Darth Reagan
A 2000 Repeat? Bush 48.9 Kerry 48.9
April 13, 2004 The race for president is currently a tie, with each candidate pulling 48.9% of the vote in the fully allocated April 13 Federal Review Composite Poll. Bush has kept it close in a tough news week for him and the country, largely due to a 4 point lead in the Gallup poll, a substantial lead in the Iowa Electronic Market and the results of last weeks Composite Poll in which Bush held a slight lead. Other polls, however, including Newsweek and FoxNews show Kerry with a 4 and 1 point lead, respectively.
All of the polls were taken prior to Condoleezza Rices testimony and release of the Presidential Daily Briefing, so it remains to be seen how those event will effect public opinion.
In addition, an analysis of Bushs job approval numbers (52 approve, 45 disapprove), together with the favorable/unfavorable opinions of Bush and Kerry led to an allocation of undecided voters in Kerrys favor.
The Federal Review Electoral College Prediction, which is based on the Composite Poll results as well as results in recent state polls indicate a Bush electoral victory. On the strength of positive polls for Bush in Florida (8), Wisconsin (6) and Pennsylvania (6), Bush leads the electoral vote projection 299-239. However, removing toss-up states, where a candidate leads by less than 5% in our analysis, the race remains close. Bush 198, Kerry 199 and Toss-ups 141. The Battleground States, with each candidates margin of projected victory, follows.
Since March 8, when we began this analysis, the largest lead by any candidate was on March 29, when Bush led 49.7 to 47.5. Kerry has led the electoral projection once, on March 8, 291 to 247. Bushs largest electoral lead occurred on March 15 and 22, 338-200.
Date |
Bush |
Kerry |
9-Mar |
49.0 |
49.1 |
16-Mar |
50.3 |
48.4 |
23-Mar |
49.2 |
48.6 |
30-Mar |
49.7 |
47.5 |
6-Apr |
48.8 |
49.0 |
13-Apr |
48.9 |
48.9 |
Electoral Vote Results
With Toss Ups | Without Toss Ups | ||||
Date | Bush | Kerry | Toss | Bush | Kerry |
9-Mar | 133 | 189 | 216 | 247 | 291 |
16-Mar | 199 | 86 | 253 | 338 | 200 |
23-Mar | 184 | 110 | 244 | 338 | 200 |
30-Mar | 194 | 110 | 234 | 335 | 203 |
6-Apr | 198 | 182 | 158 | 278 | 260 |
13-Apr | 198 | 199 | 141 | 299 | 239 |
The new thing for 2004 is the attempt to project the electoral vote. This is different from Dales' invaluable Electoral College Breakdown in that it is heavily reliant on math and current national poll numbers, although local state polls are taken into account and the author's judgment does come into play, but not as heavily as in Dales' Breakdown. Thus, I let the math do most of the heavy lifting.
My attempt is to make this as reasonable as possible and any judgment calls are usually made in favor of Kerry in order to eliminate or at least mitigate my pro-Bush bias. The analysis will be available at Federal Review on Tuesdays, and I'll try to post it here in order to get the invaluable comments and advice from other Freepers.
I hope you enjoy.
The question is what turn out numbers are the pollsters using. In 2000 they tended to look at turn outs that resembled 1988. After all 1992 and 1996 had been three man races with Ross Perot clouding the results. There were about 90 million voters in 1988, then 1992 the turn out went all the way up to 105 million, in 1996 it dropped back down to 95 million and in 2000 it went up to 105 million again.
So turn out is important. A 1988 style turn out may give bush a big win. A 2000 turn out may make it a too close to call race. Much depends on turn out.
I do know this. In good times it is very hard to get a good Democratic turn out. Democrats only agree on the economy, and if the economy is good the lower demographic democrats don't come to the polls. In good times their votes have to be bought with money and booze.. and the dead must rise to go to the polls.
I would say that if Bush wins PA, Ohio, And Florida it would be next to impossible for Kerry to win. It is quite likely that as we approach the election the Kerry support will fall.
Remember as much as half the independents will vote for the most likable candidate. The more they see of Kerry the less they will like him.
We also need to understand why the Bush administration wants to turn Iraq over to the Iraqi governing council by June. Once they are in control their lives and their families lives will depend on them retaining control. They are not likely to put up with armed rebellion. They are apt to be lot more vindictive against the rebelious clerics than we are.
When they crack down on their opponents the kick will be that Bush put thugs worse than Saddam in charge. But it is quite likely the violence will stop by the end of july.
If the killing is surpressed, then Iraq will be a big pro in the Bush Column come november.
Remember as much as half the independents will vote for the most likable candidate. The more they see of Kerry the less they will like him.
This is already worked into the analysis by the way the undecided vote is allocated between Bush and Kerry. Currently, Kerry gets more of the undecided because his negatives are not as high as Bush's. I agree, this will change.
I think it would be helpful for everyone if you could go through the methodology in a particular state, especially one where the poll numbers vary significantly from what your analysis has. Two such states that come to mind are Iowa, where your analysis has it pretty close despite the recent polls showing Kerry way ahead, and New Jersey (which I assume you have Kerry winning although the most 'recent'-- using the word loosely since they aren't that recent-- polls show Bush ahead).
In both cases, I tend to think your slotting of them is more accurate, btw.
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