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This Composite Poll has grown since its inception in 2000 when I started it as an attempt to make some sense out of polls coming out the same week that had wildly different results. It went from an average, to a weighted average, and has now only gotten more complex. For the methodology, see here.

The new thing for 2004 is the attempt to project the electoral vote. This is different from Dales' invaluable Electoral College Breakdown in that it is heavily reliant on math and current national poll numbers, although local state polls are taken into account and the author's judgment does come into play, but not as heavily as in Dales' Breakdown. Thus, I let the math do most of the heavy lifting.

My attempt is to make this as reasonable as possible and any judgment calls are usually made in favor of Kerry in order to eliminate or at least mitigate my pro-Bush bias. The analysis will be available at Federal Review on Tuesdays, and I'll try to post it here in order to get the invaluable comments and advice from other Freepers.

I hope you enjoy.

I'm impressed that the President is in a tie considering the news spin from the 9/11 Commission and the Iraqi situation.

And Kerry "hid" most of the week. I've noticed if Kerry gets much press time his poll numbers go down, so he's been operating below the radar.

Outstanding work.

I think it would be helpful for everyone if you could go through the methodology in a particular state, especially one where the poll numbers vary significantly from what your analysis has. Two such states that come to mind are Iowa, where your analysis has it pretty close despite the recent polls showing Kerry way ahead, and New Jersey (which I assume you have Kerry winning although the most 'recent'-- using the word loosely since they aren't that recent-- polls show Bush ahead).

In both cases, I tend to think your slotting of them is more accurate, btw.