The question is what turn out numbers are the pollsters using. In 2000 they tended to look at turn outs that resembled 1988. After all 1992 and 1996 had been three man races with Ross Perot clouding the results. There were about 90 million voters in 1988, then 1992 the turn out went all the way up to 105 million, in 1996 it dropped back down to 95 million and in 2000 it went up to 105 million again.
So turn out is important. A 1988 style turn out may give bush a big win. A 2000 turn out may make it a too close to call race. Much depends on turn out.
I do know this. In good times it is very hard to get a good Democratic turn out. Democrats only agree on the economy, and if the economy is good the lower demographic democrats don't come to the polls. In good times their votes have to be bought with money and booze.. and the dead must rise to go to the polls.
I would say that if Bush wins PA, Ohio, And Florida it would be next to impossible for Kerry to win. It is quite likely that as we approach the election the Kerry support will fall.
Remember as much as half the independents will vote for the most likable candidate. The more they see of Kerry the less they will like him.
We also need to understand why the Bush administration wants to turn Iraq over to the Iraqi governing council by June. Once they are in control their lives and their families lives will depend on them retaining control. They are not likely to put up with armed rebellion. They are apt to be lot more vindictive against the rebelious clerics than we are.
When they crack down on their opponents the kick will be that Bush put thugs worse than Saddam in charge. But it is quite likely the violence will stop by the end of july.
If the killing is surpressed, then Iraq will be a big pro in the Bush Column come november.