2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, March 29, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama	92.0	9	0
Alaska	93.0	3	0
Arizona	74.0	10	0
Arkansas	67.5	6	0
California	16.5	0	55
Colorado	79.0	9	0
Connecticut	14.0	0	7
Delaware	29.0	0	3
District of Columbia	1.0	0	3
Florida	61.0	27	0
Georgia	90.0	15	0
Hawaii	12.5	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	18.0	0	21
Indiana	87.5	11	0
Iowa	42.0	0	7
Kansas	92.5	6	0
Kentucky	86.5	8	0
Louisiana	83.5	9	0
Maine	22.5	0	4
Maryland	17.5	0	10
Massachusetts	4.0	0	12
Michigan	45.0	0	17
Minnesota	41.0	0	10
Mississippi	92.5	6	0
Missouri	63.0	11	0
Montana	91.0	3	0
Nebraska	95.0	5	0
Nevada	68.0	5	0
New Hampshire	65.0	4	0
New Jersey	17.5	0	15
New Mexico	57.0	5	0
New York	13.0	0	31
North Carolina	84.0	15	0
North Dakota	95.5	3	0
Ohio	61.0	20	0
Oklahoma	95.0	7	0
Oregon	40.0	0	7
Pennsylvania	51.0	21	0
Rhode Island	4.0	0	4
South Carolina	86.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	79.0	11	0
Texas	94.0	34	0
Utah	96.0	5	0
Vermont	8.0	0	3
Virginia	88.5	13	0
Washington	33.0	0	11
West Virginia	49.0	0	5
Wisconsin	47.5	0	10
Wyoming	96.0	3	0
Totals		299	239

[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 299 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 239 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 290.15 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[Wheee The People]

Ohio is more like 50/50% IMHO.

[Huck]

Ohio and PA look to be decisive (and of course FLA.)

[meatloaf]

I'd say West Virginia is going for Bush.

[Types_with_Fist]

I've read, somewhere, that, historically, incumbant races go large one way or the other; like Jimmy Carters second run or like Reagan's. Should we be looking for a close contest one way or the other?

[goldstategop]

President Bush will pick up West Virginia. He may have a shot in Minnesota and Michigan. As for California's I'd say its a long shot but if the President is leading by a double digit margin nationally, he can with without it; if its a blowout, he's probably pick up all of the weak Gore states.

[TexasNative2000]

Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Florida.

Each of those states will have a winning margin of less than 1 percentage point and will decide the election.

[Plutarch]

It is interesting that the polls in Florida are slightly in Kerry's favor, but the traders make it 61% Bush.

PA tipping from 49% to 51% is a welcome sign.

[K1avg]

We're still seven months from Election Day and still not even really out of primary season. If Kerry continues his current tack, we'll see Bush get 325 or 350 electoral votes.

Unless something big happens, it won't even be close.

[xzins]

Ohio is historically conservative and republican. If someone says the polls are 50/50, then they have to put Ohio in the republican's column because that is the way it would slant.

[Momaw Nadon]

Should we be looking for a close contest one way or the other?

According to the political futures traders at TradeSports.com, this year's contest looks relatively close.

[longtermmemmory]

Kerry is not advertising in FL. He may have given it up.

[End Times Sentinel]

This is fascinating!  I just heard something on the radio yesterday about a study done on "Group Intelligence".  The example they used was a researcher who had individuals pick who would win the Accademy Awards.  Individually, the average person got about 4.5 of 12 corrrect.  As a group, though, they consistently got 11 of 12 correct. I put a fair amount more weight behind something like this than telephone surveys and other polls.

Owl_Eagle

”Unleash the Hogs of Peace.”
P.J. O'Rourke Parliament of Whores

[Types_with_Fist]

Thanks. I remember (yes, I'm old...:-) that two days before the Carter/Reagan matchup, the networks (barf) and pollsters pronounced the contest "too close to call."

[Big Guy and Rusty 99]

GWB 2004 Bump!

[chimera]

I've read, somewhere, that, historically, incumbant races go large one way or the other; like Jimmy Carters second run or like Reagan's. Should we be looking for a close contest one way or the other?

Lately that has been the case, Bush in '92, Clinton in '96, Reagan in '84, Carter in '80, Nixon in '72, Johnson in '64, and so on. Ford in '76 was relatively close in the popular vote but not electorally. Truman in '48 was thought to be close but turned out not to be. You have to go back to Wilson in 1916 for a close incumbent race, and the Cleveland-Harrison duels in 1888 and 1892 for similar contests. It's happened, but is somewhat unusual.

[faithincowboys]

Oh, I'll scream out in joy if Bush gains PA, holds FL, OH, and MO--please let that happen!

[buckalfa]

I hope you are correct -- but there are six things
that bode well for Kerry in WV:

1. The Bush flip flop on the steel tariff issue.
2. Lack of job growth in the state aside from WalMart.
3. Access to affordable healthcare
4. Byrd and Rockefeller are not sitting out this
election as they did with Gore.
5. Democrats still have a 2 to 1 registration
majority in WV, and the Democratic base seems
energized and will turn out heavily for the
state wide offices, something they did not do in 2000.
6. The gun issue has yet to emerge in the campaign.