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2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
TradeSports.com ^
| Monday, March 29, 2004
| Momaw Nadon
Posted on 03/29/2004 8:31:29 AM PST by Momaw Nadon
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To: goldstategop
I hope Bush has a shot in Minnesota. I'm going to do my part--and campaign all my wacko leftist friends and family to vote Nader.
GO RALPH!!!
21
posted on
03/29/2004 8:55:10 AM PST
by
Choose Ye This Day
("We are delighted that Pecker will be leading the way.")
To: Momaw Nadon
This part:
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 290.15 Electoral Votes. really is meaningless, since the EV's are a step function - either you get them or you don't, there is no "weighted average" or partial state with the EVs.
That's part of the beauty of the Electoral College - it isolates voting "irregularities" to a state.
22
posted on
03/29/2004 8:55:24 AM PST
by
MrB
To: Dan from Michigan
45% bump.
23
posted on
03/29/2004 8:59:42 AM PST
by
CSM
(Vote Kerry! Boil the Frog! Speed up the 2nd Revolution! (Be like Spain! At least they're honest))
To: third try
Electoral futures over here.
To: xzins
I live in Ohio and it is no shoo in state for the republicans.Cuyahoga County,Toledo,Cinncinati,all big Dem strongholds,lot's of work to do here.I only hope Kookie Kucinich keeps his traveling freaky show out of town his district is doing just fine without him!
25
posted on
03/29/2004 9:06:23 AM PST
by
Maumee
To: Momaw Nadon
Please note that ALL of the closest races are in states that Kerry is carrying. That bodes VERY well for W.
26
posted on
03/29/2004 9:06:44 AM PST
by
The G Man
(John Kerry? America just can't afford a 9/10 President in a 9/11 world. Vote Bush-Cheney '04.)
To: buckalfa
W VA is still Democratic in statewide elections. The Dems were tarnished by a sex scandal and the cultural issues play against them with the type of electorate they have there. The old saw was that pocketbook issues decide elections but that wasn't a deciding factor in 2000 and it wasn't one either in 2002. As it is, the election's going to turn on the national security and all those wedge issues the Left is pushing that's turning Americans off.
27
posted on
03/29/2004 9:09:52 AM PST
by
goldstategop
(In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
To: The G Man
I take it back. Pennsylvania at 51% is right there with the Kerry states too.
28
posted on
03/29/2004 9:10:40 AM PST
by
The G Man
(John Kerry? America just can't afford a 9/10 President in a 9/11 world. Vote Bush-Cheney '04.)
To: The G Man
If all Kerry can do is run even in the "weak" Gore states, the election's over. If he can't pull ahead in the "weak" Bush states by the fall, he might as well go back to Beantown. Then people will really call him Dr. Morticus for sure.
29
posted on
03/29/2004 9:12:09 AM PST
by
goldstategop
(In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
To: TexasNative2000
Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Florida. Those are the same key states I picked out. Bush has to have three out of the four.
To: TexasNative2000
Each of those states will have a winning margin of less than 1 percentage point and will decide the election. Unless they don't.
31
posted on
03/29/2004 9:13:48 AM PST
by
Coop
("Hero" is the last four-letter word this veteran would use to describe John Kerry)
To: Maumee
Cincinnati is an odd place in that they've drawn their city boundaries so small. In fact, it doesn't even go as far as College Hill. On the other hand, the Cincy metro area comprises all its surrounding counties....Hamilton & then Butler, Warren, Clermont. Metro Cincy is conservative.
32
posted on
03/29/2004 9:15:00 AM PST
by
xzins
(Retired Army and Proud of It!)
To: chimera
Ford in '76 was relatively close in the popular vote but not electorally. Didn't he come within a hair's breadth of winning Ohio, which would have won him the Electoral Vote?
33
posted on
03/29/2004 9:15:14 AM PST
by
Plutarch
To: xzins
Historically yes. But there is a huge demographic shift underway. The cause? Immigration. Central Ohio, traditionally a Republican stronghold, went "blue" in the last election, in no small measure due to the flood of immigrants. If you go into any Wendy's here you're going to hear Mexican spoken as a first language by many of the employees, and if you stay at a hotel be ready to give the traditional Hindu greeting to your hosts.
Kerry has a better-than-even shot at the state because of this and the jobs/economy issue. Manufacturing job losses have hurt, and Kerry is clobbering Bush with the issue. The last tracking poll had Kerry ahead. It's by no means a "lock" for Bush.
34
posted on
03/29/2004 9:16:29 AM PST
by
chimera
To: Plutarch; Momaw Nadon
PA tipping from 49% to 51% is a welcome sign. YES IT IS! Not only that, but if all goes according to plan, we'll be sending Snarlin' Arlin packing as well!
And replaced with a REAL conservative, Pat Toomey!
35
posted on
03/29/2004 9:17:45 AM PST
by
cuz_it_aint_their_money
(The only way liberals win national elections is by pretending they're not liberals. - Rush Limbaugh)
To: San Jacinto
Bush has to have three out of the four. Why? Bush could lose two and still win the election. He's in excellent shape to pick up NM, WI, IA, and MN from last time. And, although I don't really expect it to last, he's leading across multiple polls in New Jersey.
Swing state update
36
posted on
03/29/2004 9:18:07 AM PST
by
Coop
("Hero" is the last four-letter word this veteran would use to describe John Kerry)
To: Coop
Bush will win both New Mexico and Minnesota this time. Michigan and Pennsylania are increasingly possible as well.
37
posted on
03/29/2004 9:20:54 AM PST
by
mwl1
To: Plutarch
1976 Presidential Election Results - Ohio
James Carter Walter Mondale Democrat 2,011,621 48.92% 25
Gerald Ford Robert Dole Republican 2,000,505 48.65% 0
Eugene McCarthy Dennis Anderson Independent 58,258 1.42%
1976 Presidential Election Results
James Carter Walter Mondale Democratic 40,831,881 50.08% 297 55.20%
Gerald Ford Robert Dole Republican 39,148,634 48.02% 240 44.61%
Eugene McCarthy - Independent 740,460 0.91% 0 0.00%
Other (+) - - 810,609 0.99% 1 0.19%
38
posted on
03/29/2004 9:22:23 AM PST
by
TJC
(t)
To: Momaw Nadon
current Iowa Electronic Futures market, Bush is 52 cents to Kerry's 47 cents.
39
posted on
03/29/2004 9:23:28 AM PST
by
RobFromGa
(Bring on Hillary, the Electorate is Ready For Her...)
To: summer
ping
40
posted on
03/29/2004 9:24:34 AM PST
by
Liz
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