2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, March 29, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Just mythoughts]

"The key to Bush's victory is if Kerry's negatives keep rising. He's below 50% now and moving up. And when a politician hits negative 50% and over, they go ballistic."


This is true, reason why JFKerry will not be left alone or on his own, he is the key to his own higher negatives.

Another reason for Clarke's book, Woodward's book, Clinton's book, keep the attention off JFKerry so he stays out of the headlines. Stealth candidate, like Hillary.

[TomEwall]

The bid and ask for WV is 50.0 and 55.0 resp, which seems to indicate it should be in Bush's column. The last is 49.0, which is what you used, which for some reason is outside the bid and the ask.

I don't understand how the ask price got to exceed the last.

[MasonGal]

I grew up in the Cincy area just north - in Warren County. My parents and in-laws still live there. Metro-Cincy is definitely Conservative.

[TomEwall]

This is very, very unlikely. Only Florida was within 1% last time. Ohio and Missouri were about 3.5 I think for Bush and Penn 5 for Gore. The states would have to move in opposite directions without Florida not moving at all. But if Missouri is close, for example, then Kerry would probably win Florida and Pennsylvania easily.

But you're right that these are the key states.

[TomEwall]

I think you're right about the comparison. As there were a lot of people disliked Clinton, there also a lot that liked him. People were indifferent about Dole. Similarly, Republicans like Bush much more than Democrats like Kerry.

[Liz]

Good point about their diversionary tactics by publishing books.

Reinforces my point that Ann Coulter and other conservatives need to come out with pointendly anti-Kerry books.

[BOBTHENAILER]

The VVAW assasination vote meeting is destined to push his negatives skyward. I'd like to see Ann Coulter do a detailed deconstruction of this meeting in book form.

His nagatives will continue to rise, IMHO. He has way too much baggage to carry, as you pointed out so well..

[chimera]

Having baggage to carry doesn't necessarily doom a candidate. Clinton had plenty of baggage and, to clear-thinking people, that was a reason, among others, not to support him. Still, in '92, Bush 41 had high negatives as well, the media covered for Clinton as much as possible, and, for some stupid reason, a lot of people still liked Clinton in spite of the baggage. In this cycle, with Kerry, I'm not sure the last point holds, but the second one definitely does, and the first is problematic.

[Momaw Nadon]

I don't understand how the ask price got to exceed the last.

It's a good time for investors to trade this futures contract.

[TomEwall]

Your sentence is a bit difficult to follow, but I think you're saying this:
1) Clinton had baggage
2) A lot of people supported him anyway

You think 1) applies for Bush, but you're not so sure about 2).

I guess we'll find out for sure in Novemeber, but I think a lot of people like Bush. His support among Republicans is very strong; I'd say the most popular president (among Republicans) since Ike, outside of Reagan.

I think a sizeable part of Clinton's popularity has to do with the fact that things were going well during his watch.

[devolve]

Kerry figures the pink states will be decisive.

The Tinker Bell Factor.

[onyx]

LOL!
The Tinkerbelle syndrome.

[ChadGore]

Re: " Reinforces my point that Ann Coulter . . "

In strict accordance with the FreeRepublic by laws,
paragraph 4, section 7, stating that, and I quote:
"any mention of our beloved Ann Coulter
must include her image", I offer the following
pictures for your exclusive viewing pleasure.

---

Carville really IS gollum.

[jaugust]

The important date is Nov 2, 2004, not today. I don't really care about this info. It is not relevant. IMO

[colorado tanker]

Thanks. I remember (yes, I'm old...:-) that two days before the Carter/Reagan matchup, the networks (barf) and pollsters pronounced the contest "too close to call."

Oh boy, do I remember that too. I invited both Republican and Democrat friends over for an election night party, thinking it would be close, something for both sides to feel good about. The election was called by the time I came home with the party supplies. Needless to say, it was an early night. That's the last time I attempted a bipartisan election party.

[BOBTHENAILER]

Having baggage to carry doesn't necessarily doom a candidate. Clinton had plenty of baggage and, to clear-thinking people, that was a reason, among others, not to support him.

Point taken, but Kerry's baggage consists of year upon year of voting records that will be shoved down his throat.

We've already seen his tortured attempts at explaining his votes. IMHO, this baggage will carry greater weight and help increase his negatives.

[chimera]

Trying to clarify the points not very well made:

1. Bush 41 had fairly high negatives,
2. Clinton had baggage, but the media covered for him,
3. Clinton had baggage, but for some stupid reason people liked him anyway.

This time around, I think that point one, to some extent, applies to Bush 43, point 2 is definitely true for Kerry, and point three is unlikely for Kerry (he just isn't as "likable" as Clinton).

[chimera]

Very true, and Bush needs to keep up the pressure on this front. It will have legs with people who think things through, and certainly cement the negative perception that is growing for Kerry among centrist and undecided voters. This is where the battle will be won or lost. If the Republicans can effectively point out that Kerry's voting record puts him at odds with the positions of a majority of voters, it will be tough for him to counter. Once it's on the record, it's harder to bury (although Kerry and the Rats and the media will try).

[PhilDragoo]

KERRY-DEAN ~ 2004

Anti-defense! Yeah!
Anti-intelligence! Yeah!
Anti-American! Yeah!
Full of gas! YEAAAHHH!

[potlatch]

Thanks for the ping Meek.