Trying to clarify the points not very well made:
1. Bush 41 had fairly high negatives,
2. Clinton had baggage, but the media covered for him,
3. Clinton had baggage, but for some stupid reason people liked him anyway.
This time around, I think that point one, to some extent, applies to Bush 43, point 2 is definitely true for Kerry, and point three is unlikely for Kerry (he just isn't as "likable" as Clinton).
I agree with your points.
I think Bush 43's negatives are different than Bush 41's in that they are stronger but not as prevalent. That is, there are fewer that dislike Bush 43 than Bush 41, but those who do dislike him do so more vehemently than against Bush 41. It's similar to Clinton, who was very much disliked by many.
This election reminds me of '96. Although there were many who disliked Clinton, there were many who liked him. Dole didn't really stir up feelings one way or the other. He was just someone who wasn't Clinton. Kerry's like that; just someone who isn't Bush.