2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, March 29, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama	92.0	9	0
Alaska	93.0	3	0
Arizona	74.0	10	0
Arkansas	67.5	6	0
California	16.5	0	55
Colorado	79.0	9	0
Connecticut	14.0	0	7
Delaware	29.0	0	3
District of Columbia	1.0	0	3
Florida	61.0	27	0
Georgia	90.0	15	0
Hawaii	12.5	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	18.0	0	21
Indiana	87.5	11	0
Iowa	42.0	0	7
Kansas	92.5	6	0
Kentucky	86.5	8	0
Louisiana	83.5	9	0
Maine	22.5	0	4
Maryland	17.5	0	10
Massachusetts	4.0	0	12
Michigan	45.0	0	17
Minnesota	41.0	0	10
Mississippi	92.5	6	0
Missouri	63.0	11	0
Montana	91.0	3	0
Nebraska	95.0	5	0
Nevada	68.0	5	0
New Hampshire	65.0	4	0
New Jersey	17.5	0	15
New Mexico	57.0	5	0
New York	13.0	0	31
North Carolina	84.0	15	0
North Dakota	95.5	3	0
Ohio	61.0	20	0
Oklahoma	95.0	7	0
Oregon	40.0	0	7
Pennsylvania	51.0	21	0
Rhode Island	4.0	0	4
South Carolina	86.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	79.0	11	0
Texas	94.0	34	0
Utah	96.0	5	0
Vermont	8.0	0	3
Virginia	88.5	13	0
Washington	33.0	0	11
West Virginia	49.0	0	5
Wisconsin	47.5	0	10
Wyoming	96.0	3	0
Totals		299	239

[Choose Ye This Day]

I hope Bush has a shot in Minnesota. I'm going to do my part--and campaign all my wacko leftist friends and family to vote Nader.

GO RALPH!!!

[MrB]

This part: If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 290.15 Electoral Votes.

really is meaningless, since the EV's are a step function - either you get them or you don't, there is no "weighted average" or partial state with the EVs.
That's part of the beauty of the Electoral College - it isolates voting "irregularities" to a state.

[CSM]

45% bump.

[reformedliberal]

Electoral futures over here.

[Maumee]

I live in Ohio and it is no shoo in state for the republicans.Cuyahoga County,Toledo,Cinncinati,all big Dem strongholds,lot's of work to do here.I only hope Kookie Kucinich keeps his traveling freaky show out of town his district is doing just fine without him!

[The G Man]

Please note that ALL of the closest races are in states that Kerry is carrying. That bodes VERY well for W.

[goldstategop]

W VA is still Democratic in statewide elections. The Dems were tarnished by a sex scandal and the cultural issues play against them with the type of electorate they have there. The old saw was that pocketbook issues decide elections but that wasn't a deciding factor in 2000 and it wasn't one either in 2002. As it is, the election's going to turn on the national security and all those wedge issues the Left is pushing that's turning Americans off.

[The G Man]

I take it back. Pennsylvania at 51% is right there with the Kerry states too.

[goldstategop]

If all Kerry can do is run even in the "weak" Gore states, the election's over. If he can't pull ahead in the "weak" Bush states by the fall, he might as well go back to Beantown. Then people will really call him Dr. Morticus for sure.

[San Jacinto]

Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Florida.

Those are the same key states I picked out. Bush has to have three out of the four.

[Coop]

Each of those states will have a winning margin of less than 1 percentage point and will decide the election.

Unless they don't.

[xzins]

Cincinnati is an odd place in that they've drawn their city boundaries so small. In fact, it doesn't even go as far as College Hill. On the other hand, the Cincy metro area comprises all its surrounding counties....Hamilton & then Butler, Warren, Clermont. Metro Cincy is conservative.

[Plutarch]

Ford in '76 was relatively close in the popular vote but not electorally.

Didn't he come within a hair's breadth of winning Ohio, which would have won him the Electoral Vote?

[chimera]

Historically yes. But there is a huge demographic shift underway. The cause? Immigration. Central Ohio, traditionally a Republican stronghold, went "blue" in the last election, in no small measure due to the flood of immigrants. If you go into any Wendy's here you're going to hear Mexican spoken as a first language by many of the employees, and if you stay at a hotel be ready to give the traditional Hindu greeting to your hosts.

Kerry has a better-than-even shot at the state because of this and the jobs/economy issue. Manufacturing job losses have hurt, and Kerry is clobbering Bush with the issue. The last tracking poll had Kerry ahead. It's by no means a "lock" for Bush.

[cuz_it_aint_their_money]

PA tipping from 49% to 51% is a welcome sign.

YES IT IS! Not only that, but if all goes according to plan, we'll be sending Snarlin' Arlin packing as well!
And replaced with a REAL conservative, Pat Toomey!

[Coop]

Bush has to have three out of the four.

Why? Bush could lose two and still win the election. He's in excellent shape to pick up NM, WI, IA, and MN from last time. And, although I don't really expect it to last, he's leading across multiple polls in New Jersey.

Swing state update

[mwl1]

Bush will win both New Mexico and Minnesota this time. Michigan and Pennsylania are increasingly possible as well.

[TJC]

1976 Presidential Election Results - Ohio

James Carter Walter Mondale Democrat 2,011,621 48.92% 25
Gerald Ford Robert Dole Republican 2,000,505 48.65% 0

Eugene McCarthy Dennis Anderson Independent 58,258 1.42%

1976 Presidential Election Results

James Carter Walter Mondale Democratic 40,831,881 50.08% 297 55.20%
Gerald Ford Robert Dole Republican 39,148,634 48.02% 240 44.61%
Eugene McCarthy - Independent 740,460 0.91% 0 0.00%
Other (+) - - 810,609 0.99% 1 0.19%

[RobFromGa]

current Iowa Electronic Futures market, Bush is 52 cents to Kerry's 47 cents.

[Liz]

ping