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2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
TradeSports.com ^
| Monday, March 29, 2004
| Momaw Nadon
Posted on 03/29/2004 8:31:29 AM PST by Momaw Nadon
State |
% Chance of Bush Winning |
Bush Electoral Votes |
Kerry Electoral Votes |
Alabama |
92.0 |
9 |
0 |
Alaska |
93.0 |
3 |
0 |
Arizona |
74.0 |
10 |
0 |
Arkansas |
67.5 |
6 |
0 |
California |
16.5 |
0 |
55 |
Colorado |
79.0 |
9 |
0 |
Connecticut |
14.0 |
0 |
7 |
Delaware |
29.0 |
0 |
3 |
District of Columbia |
1.0 |
0 |
3 |
Florida |
61.0 |
27 |
0 |
Georgia |
90.0 |
15 |
0 |
Hawaii |
12.5 |
0 |
4 |
Idaho |
95.0 |
4 |
0 |
Illinois |
18.0 |
0 |
21 |
Indiana |
87.5 |
11 |
0 |
Iowa |
42.0 |
0 |
7 |
Kansas |
92.5 |
6 |
0 |
Kentucky |
86.5 |
8 |
0 |
Louisiana |
83.5 |
9 |
0 |
Maine |
22.5 |
0 |
4 |
Maryland |
17.5 |
0 |
10 |
Massachusetts |
4.0 |
0 |
12 |
Michigan |
45.0 |
0 |
17 |
Minnesota |
41.0 |
0 |
10 |
Mississippi |
92.5 |
6 |
0 |
Missouri |
63.0 |
11 |
0 |
Montana |
91.0 |
3 |
0 |
Nebraska |
95.0 |
5 |
0 |
Nevada |
68.0 |
5 |
0 |
New Hampshire |
65.0 |
4 |
0 |
New Jersey |
17.5 |
0 |
15 |
New Mexico |
57.0 |
5 |
0 |
New York |
13.0 |
0 |
31 |
North Carolina |
84.0 |
15 |
0 |
North Dakota |
95.5 |
3 |
0 |
Ohio |
61.0 |
20 |
0 |
Oklahoma |
95.0 |
7 |
0 |
Oregon |
40.0 |
0 |
7 |
Pennsylvania |
51.0 |
21 |
0 |
Rhode Island |
4.0 |
0 |
4 |
South Carolina |
86.0 |
8 |
0 |
South Dakota |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
Tennessee |
79.0 |
11 |
0 |
Texas |
94.0 |
34 |
0 |
Utah |
96.0 |
5 |
0 |
Vermont |
8.0 |
0 |
3 |
Virginia |
88.5 |
13 |
0 |
Washington |
33.0 |
0 |
11 |
West Virginia |
49.0 |
0 |
5 |
Wisconsin |
47.5 |
0 |
10 |
Wyoming |
96.0 |
3 |
0 |
Totals |
|
299 |
239 |
TOPICS: Extended News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004; bush; election; electionpresident; electoral; electoralvote; electoralvotes; georgebush; georgewbush; gwb2004; president; presidentbush; presidential; vote; votes
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I went to
TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 299 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 239 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 290.15 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
To: Momaw Nadon
2
posted on
03/29/2004 8:31:56 AM PST
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: Momaw Nadon
Ohio is more like 50/50% IMHO.
3
posted on
03/29/2004 8:33:49 AM PST
by
Wheee The People
(Oo ee oo ah ah, ting tang, walla-walla bing bang. Oo ee oo ah ah, ting tang, walla-walla bing bang!)
Comment #4 Removed by Moderator
To: Momaw Nadon
Ohio and PA look to be decisive (and of course FLA.)
5
posted on
03/29/2004 8:35:01 AM PST
by
Huck
(In the Soviet Union, the Admin Moderators ruled.)
To: Momaw Nadon
I'd say West Virginia is going for Bush.
6
posted on
03/29/2004 8:35:56 AM PST
by
meatloaf
To: Momaw Nadon
I've read, somewhere, that, historically, incumbant races go large one way or the other; like Jimmy Carters second run or like Reagan's. Should we be looking for a close contest one way or the other?
7
posted on
03/29/2004 8:37:17 AM PST
by
Types_with_Fist
("You'll never get the pass code Eric!")
To: Momaw Nadon
President Bush will pick up West Virginia. He may have a shot in Minnesota and Michigan. As for California's I'd say its a long shot but if the President is leading by a double digit margin nationally, he can with without it; if its a blowout, he's probably pick up all of the weak Gore states.
8
posted on
03/29/2004 8:38:49 AM PST
by
goldstategop
(In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
To: Momaw Nadon
Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Florida.
Each of those states will have a winning margin of less than 1 percentage point and will decide the election.
9
posted on
03/29/2004 8:39:22 AM PST
by
TexasNative2000
(Can't we all just get a longneck?)
To: Momaw Nadon
It is interesting that the polls in Florida are slightly in Kerry's favor, but the traders make it 61% Bush.
PA tipping from 49% to 51% is a welcome sign.
10
posted on
03/29/2004 8:40:06 AM PST
by
Plutarch
To: Momaw Nadon
We're still seven months from Election Day and still not even really out of primary season. If Kerry continues his current tack, we'll see Bush get 325 or 350 electoral votes.
Unless something big happens, it won't even be close.
11
posted on
03/29/2004 8:40:46 AM PST
by
K1avg
(A proud member of the "Republican Smear Machine")
To: Wheee The People
Ohio is historically conservative and republican. If someone says the polls are 50/50, then they have to put Ohio in the republican's column because that is the way it would slant.
12
posted on
03/29/2004 8:42:21 AM PST
by
xzins
(Retired Army and Proud of It!)
To: Types_with_Fist
Should we be looking for a close contest one way or the other?
According to the political futures traders at TradeSports.com, this year's contest looks relatively close.
13
posted on
03/29/2004 8:42:42 AM PST
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: TexasNative2000
Kerry is not advertising in FL. He may have given it up.
To: Momaw Nadon
This is fascinating! I just heard something on the radio yesterday about a study done on "Group Intelligence". The example they used was a researcher who had individuals pick who would win the Accademy Awards. Individually, the average person got about 4.5 of 12 corrrect. As a group, though, they consistently got 11 of 12 correct. I put a fair amount more weight behind something like this than telephone surveys and other polls.
Owl_Eagle
Unleash the Hogs of Peace.
P.J. O'Rourke Parliament of Whores
15
posted on
03/29/2004 8:48:19 AM PST
by
End Times Sentinel
("I AIN'T GOT TIME FO' YO' JIBBA JABBA, FOOL!!!"~ Mr. T.)
To: Momaw Nadon
Thanks. I remember (yes, I'm old...:-) that two days before the Carter/Reagan matchup, the networks (barf) and pollsters pronounced the contest "too close to call."
16
posted on
03/29/2004 8:49:22 AM PST
by
Types_with_Fist
("You'll never get the pass code Eric!")
To: RepoGirl
GWB 2004 Bump!
To: Types_with_Fist
I've read, somewhere, that, historically, incumbant races go large one way or the other; like Jimmy Carters second run or like Reagan's. Should we be looking for a close contest one way or the other? Lately that has been the case, Bush in '92, Clinton in '96, Reagan in '84, Carter in '80, Nixon in '72, Johnson in '64, and so on. Ford in '76 was relatively close in the popular vote but not electorally. Truman in '48 was thought to be close but turned out not to be. You have to go back to Wilson in 1916 for a close incumbent race, and the Cleveland-Harrison duels in 1888 and 1892 for similar contests. It's happened, but is somewhat unusual.
18
posted on
03/29/2004 8:50:10 AM PST
by
chimera
To: Momaw Nadon
Oh, I'll scream out in joy if Bush gains PA, holds FL, OH, and MO--please let that happen!
To: goldstategop
I hope you are correct -- but there are six things
that bode well for Kerry in WV:
1. The Bush flip flop on the steel tariff issue.
2. Lack of job growth in the state aside from WalMart.
3. Access to affordable healthcare
4. Byrd and Rockefeller are not sitting out this
election as they did with Gore.
5. Democrats still have a 2 to 1 registration
majority in WV, and the Democratic base seems
energized and will turn out heavily for the
state wide offices, something they did not do in 2000.
6. The gun issue has yet to emerge in the campaign.
20
posted on
03/29/2004 8:54:55 AM PST
by
buckalfa
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